Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cheap Advice 3/16/16

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings (DK $3700, FD $3500, 23.8 USG)

With Elfrid Payton questionable again tonight and Vuc being out, Brandon Jennings is in play for the second straight day.  He drew the start ahead of C.J. Watson and performed well enough to hopefully earn Skiles trust.  Playing 27 minutes against the Nuggets, Jennings recorded a double-double (12 points, 11 assists) for 35.8 DKPTS.  The game against the Hornets (gives up the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing PG’s) isn’t as favorable of a matchup but the upside Jennings brings when he’s on the court makes him an solid value play.  He’s averaging .83 fantasy points per minute with Vuc and Payton off the floor since joining the Magic so as long as he’s getting close to 30 minutes, you have to love his price tag.  The only real worry with Jennings is the unpredictability of Skiles coaching style.  If Jennings makes one bad mistake, he could end up being benched quickly and maybe see only 15 minutes of playing time as opposed to the 27 minutes he saw last night.

Jennings should be quite popular tonight considering his performance last night so a nice way to pivot off him in tournaments might be to Ray McCallum, who disappointed everyone on Monday.  Most won’t want to go down that well again but the matchup against the Timberwolves is much better for him.

Shooting Guard

J.J. Redick (DK $4800, FD $4800, 22.6 USG)

I was considering writing up E’Twaun Moore here because if Derrick Rose is out again tonight (GTD), he deserves consideration with how well he’s performed over the last few games Rose has sat.  This is a guy averaging 28.58 DKPTS over his last 4 games in general and if both Rose and Gasol sit, his USG% and minutes will continue to rise.

I ended up going with Redick because of the safer floor and not having to rely on waiting for Rose news.  Redick draws a great matchup against the Houston Rockets and James Harden defense, who are 23rd in DvP against SG.  He’s consistent but never a popular pick because of the lack of upside he brings.  Considering how bad the SG position is on this 9 game slate, consistency is a luxury and for under 5K, he makes for a great fill in to complete your rosters.  The Rockets are giving up the 4th most 3 pointers (9.6) to opponents on the season and that’s pretty much Redick’s formula for success, especially against Houston. He’s averaging 33.43 DKPTS against them on the year, highlighted by an amazing 48.25 DKPTS performance against them in mid January, where he hit 9 of 12 three pointers.  I guess you could say there’s upside with him after all.

Small Forward

Michael Beasley (DK $3700, FD $3900, 32.7 USG)

I’ve personally been avoiding this dude ever since he signed with Houston earlier this month but sometimes you just have to cave in.  Look at that USG rate!  If qualified, he’d be third in the league only behind Demarcus Cousins and Russell Westbrook, but the sample size is too small at the moment and I doubt it sustains.  Just last week against BOS, Beasley tied the record for most amount of FGA’s (19) in 15 minutes.  It’s the Beasliest kind of line there is.  But anyways, the Rockets seem cool with it cause he continues to get Josh Smith‘s minutes and if he can get anywhere near 20 minutes tonight, he’ll reward us again.  I wouldn’t look too much into his minutes against Memphis on Monday.  That game was over by half time and he was playing garbage minutes along with the rest of the Rockets bench.  This game owns a very friendly 215.5 Over/Under so Beasley is a cheap way to get some exposure here.

Power Forward

Nikola Mirotic (DK $5000, FD $5100, 20.9 USG)

You could go with either Mirotic or Taj here but just like the last time I wrote these two up, I’m giving the edge to Mirotic because of the upside.  I paired both of them together on Monday and both exceeded value so I’m not opposed to the same strategy tonight.  With Gasol out again, the Bulls will rely on these two to play as many minutes as they can handle against the Wizards.  There is some concern though with this matchup as the Wizards allow the 4th fewest 3 pointers to stretch 4’s, which may cap his upside.  In the one game he played against WAS earlier this season, he finished with 27.8 DKPTS with only one made 3 (7 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks), so he’s capable of doing more than just shoot but just be warned that this could backfire. Taj is the much safer play for cash games.

Center

Steven Adams (DK $3900, FD $4300, 12.4 USG)

This may be suicidal but I’m considering Adams for every lineup I throw out there tonight.  He’s just way too cheap on DK and this matchup is one he should easily excel in.  No team in the league gives up more total rebounds than Boston, a team we always target big men against (gives up 9th most fantasy points to centers).  With a huge Over/Under of 220, Adams is a core value play of mine that will allow me savings to pair him with Durant.  With the way Sullinger has been playing as of late, they’re going to need Adams’ defense a lot more than the’ll need Kanter’s offense off the bench.  He had a let down of a game the last time these teams played with only 18.8 DKPTS (6 points, 7 rebounds) but even that tonight would mean he’s reached value.  The key stat that popped out to me in that game is that he played 30 minutes.  He doesn’t need to do too much to hit value again but the upside is certainly there, given the matchup.

Featured Image Credit: By photo taken by flickr user ReneS (flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Chris Fedail

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