Point Guard
Jerryd Bayless (DK $4700, FD $4600, 16.8 USG)
We’re witnessing some pretty awesome stuff in MIL with what the Greek Freak is doing. It’s reminiscent of Westbrook without KD or Joakim Noah when he was the focal point of the Bulls offense a couple years back. Those guys were pretty much asked to do everything and they delivered. Which bring us to Bayless. Bayless is the PG by default in the new Bucks offense but it’s Giannis that’s running the show, so this is an example of not overreacting when you’re seeing a PG getting 40 minutes a game. What makes Bayless viable for DFS purposes is pretty much just the 40 minutes a game. His USG% is the lowest of his career because of Giannis (it’s at a ridiculously low 13.32% over his last 5). This is a guy we’ve seen have multiple 20 plus USG percentage seasons throughout his career but it’s simply not needed anymore. You’re probably wondering why I’ve spent this whole time giving you reasons not to play Bayless. It’s not that. It’s that I want people to temper their expectations given the situation in MIL right now. And in all reality, there are maybe only 2 guys I would consider at the sub 5K range and Bayless is one of them, because of the amount of court time he’s seeing. Sloan would be the other in a great matchup against PHI but that’s a rollercoaster I don’t particularly feel comfortable riding. So if you’re in dire need of PG relief, Bayless makes the most sense, but the matchup isn’t great against the defense of skinny Lowry (Raptors give up the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing point guards in the league). There are 2 key value plays on the night that should allow you to spend up at the position so Bayless isn’t a priority of mine in the slightest bit. We’ll get to those guys shorty.
Shooting Guard
Lou Williams (DK $4800, FD $4900, 22.5 USG)
Well, that didn’t take long at all. In Lou’s first game back since returning from injury, he played 26 minutes and recorded 25.8 DKPTS (a fantasy point per minute). A lot of people were on D’Angelo Russell the other night against the Knicks but I couldn’t pull the trigger at that new inflated price tag, and boy did it pay off. Russell is sticking as the starting PG but a lot of his recent production came at the expense of the Lakers backcourt being injured and being forced into heavy playing time. With guys getting healthy again, I’ll have to wait and see if Russell’s minutes are as secure but if Sunday’s game against the Knicks told us anything, it’s that Williams will continue to have a solid role for this Lakers team whether he’s coming off the bench of starting. Kobe Bryant is doubtful for tonight’s game against the Kings so you can make an argument for all 3 of Williams, Clarkson and Russell but Williams is the cheapest of the bunch and in this matchup, you have to consider his depressed price tag compared to the other two. In the 3 games against the Kings this season, Williams is averaging 24.5 DKPTS per game compared to the 27.6 Russell is averaging and 27 Clarkson is averaging. All 3 are eating into each others’ production but only one of them is priced under 5K. And like we always say, SG’s against the Kings is the matchup of all matchups to target.
Also worth noting that without Jae Crowder, Evan Turner is going to likely be starting and will be playing more minutes. He was already a guy I loved targeting off the bench but if you’re telling me I can get an extra 5-10 minutes out of him in the starting lineup, he’s a steal at only $5400, against IND.
Small Forward
Metta World Peace (DK $3000, FD $3500, 15.1 USG)
I’m just throwing caca on the wall here and hoping it sticks. Small Forward is a position that you’re being forced to spend up on tonight. After the big three of Giannis, PG13 and Kawhi, you’re looking at a bunch of injured dudes and then the likes of Jeff Green and Omri Casspi. Sure you can punt with those options but I’ve been there before and I don’t wanna revisit that time in my life. If you really wanna punt, why not shoot for the stars? Metta is going to be starting for Kobe tonight and is the bare minimum across the industry. I wouldn’t expect big things (averaging 19.83 DKPTS in his 3 starts this year, over 6X’s value) but I’d expect comparable numbers to anyone else under 5K and for as cheap as it gets. It’s the highest total on the night at 217 and SAC is only a 3 point favorite. If there was ever a game to completely stack, it’s this one. Only one guy on the night will cost you over 10K (Boogie) so it’s very doable. The Kings and Lakers are 2 of the worst defensive teams in the league so the points should be there and if Metta’s playing more than 20 minutes (averages 23.26 in starts this season) against this Kings team that gives up the 4th most fantasy points to SF’s, he may actually be a great play. But as I wrote about Bayless, it’s not needed when you have 2 amazing value plays and that’s where we’ll look to next.
Power Forward
Carl Landry (DK $3700, FD $4400, 24.9 USG)
Landry’s main concern has always been minutes. His USG% is the highest of his 13 year career. Well, the Sixers are so thin up front tonight, that those minutes are no longer a concern. Okafor, Holmes, Grant and Covington will all sit out once again in this friendly matchup against the Nets meaning Landry should see close to 25 minutes. For a guy that’s as active as him, that’s all you really need for him to reach and exceed value with ease. He was a very popular play the last game he started against DET and paid off with 29.5 DKPTS (10 X’s value). I think he’ll likely be the highest owned guy on the slate with how he produced for a majority of us in that game. He’s now scored at least 27 DKPTS in 3 of his last 4 games. All 3 were games he’s played at least 25 min, so you get what I’m saying here? The Nets are second to last in opponent effective FG% only behind the Suns. There should be plenty of easy opportunities for Landry to score here against a team that gives up the 10th most fantasy points to PF’s. Onto the next chalk . . .
Center
Bismack Biyombo (DK $3700, FD $3800, 11.4 USG)
Jonas Valenciunas left the game against the Bulls last night with what is being called a left hand contusion, which is a relief for Raps fans and is questionable for tonight’s game against the Bucks. Biyombo started for him in the second half last night and will likely draw the start again tonight if he were forced to miss. Biyombo isn’t a guy that can rack up a lot of stats on the offensive side of the ball but given the playing time, he can make up for it on what he brings on defense. He has an elite 6.0 block percentage on the season, which is second in the league only to Hassan Whiteside. Only 5 teams gets their shots blocked more than MIL, also giving up the 3rd highest opponent block percentage. The Bucks also give up the 3 most offensive rebounds in the league so I can envision a lot of scenarios for easy put backs. It’s a match made in heaven. Everything you’re looking for in value is here: cheap price, productive player, secure minutes and a beautiful matchup. Now this all obviously hinges on Jonas’ availability but my gut says he sits. If I were to be wrong and he does in fact play, a great pivot would be to Ian Mahinmi for about $1000 more against BOS. On FD, I don’t know what you’re going to do because I’m trying to get Boogie into all of my lineups tonight but passing up on this kind of potential value is something I’d have a hard time living with on the night.
Featured Image Credit: By photo taken by flickr user ReneS (flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
