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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cheap Advice 12/16/15

daily fantasy basketball advice


Point Guard

Jrue Holiday ($4700, 26.8 USG) – Another Holiday to get excited about in December!  Ok, that was a bit cheesy but hear me out.  By no means do I love targeting players against the Utah Jazz.  They slow the game down more than any team in the league and are superb defensively with Rudy Gobert in their starting lineup, but he’s still out indefinitely.  By the way, Gobert is making quite the case for Defensive Player of the Year by not playing because it’s ridiculous how much worse this team is defensively without him.  Anyways, back to Holiday. It’s only a matter of time until Jrue is priced near the $6500 range.  His buy low window is slowly closing and you need to act on it before it does.  Alvin Gentry confirmed that Holiday no longer needs to sit anymore halves of back to back sets.  That’s a clear sign to me that he’s pretty darn close to full health.  Look at his last 4 games and notice his fantasy point production: 32.8, 29.5, 34.5, 34.8 . . . All under 30 minutes played!  His advanced stats this year line up with all of his career bests, so it’s not like he’s a poorer version of who we’ve seen before (See Derrick Rose).  I love targeting players who have a suppressed salary due to injuries about the time they’re rounding back into form.  Happy Holiday’s to all of you!  Ok, that’s enough of that.

Shooting Guard 

Gerald Green ($4400, 20.9 USG) – I really don’t enjoy rostering Gerald Green.  Looking at his metrics, he’s not a very good basketball player but he can be a high volume player given the opportunity, which is what we’re looking at tonight.  As of now, Dwayne Wade is questionable to play with an illness (it seems like everyone is sick lately, right?).  If he’s unable to play, Green becomes a great play at $4400.  He’s already been playing solid minutes (averaging 30.4 over his last 5 games) but his USG% jumps up to 24.1 when Wade is out.  Also look for Tyler Johnson (probable) to get some run in the event that Wade sits but I like Green a tad bit more.  It also doesn’t hurt that the Brooklyn Nets give up the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards in the league (46.8 DK points).  The game has a low game total (190) so I wouldn’t want too much exposure here but you gotta take value when it presents itself.

Small Forward

Jeff Green ($4900, 19.2 USG) – No two players have benefitted more with Zach Randolph‘s benching than Jeff Green and Matt Barnes.  Barnes is finally priced above the 5K range so we’ll take a discounted Green instead.  This dude has played back to back 40+ min games since the lineup change (34, 31 DK points) and showing no signs of slowing down (especially if Tony Allen is ruled out again). As mentioned a couple days ago, Dave Joerger is fighting for his job and has noticeably shortened his rotation.  You have to ride these kind of waves until they crash because of the upside and high floor.  I don’t like the implied team total for the Grizzlies (194.5) but as mentioned above, we can’t get too picky with elite value plays like these when handed to us.

Power Forward

John Henson ($3800, 20.3 USG) –  Greg Monroe was a late scratch last night against the Lakers (knee soreness), sliding John Henson into the starting lineup (how many of you were forced to start Roy Hibbert too?).  Henson didn’t do much in the 24 minutes given to him (19.5 DK points) but this game also got ugly pretty fast.  With Monroe already being ruled out for tonight’s contest against the Clippers, Henson is likely to get the start again.  But . . . this is Jason Kidd we’re talking about so it’s very possible he could surprise us all and start Miles Plumlee in his place at the very last minute and we’d all be screwed but as of now, we have to assume it’ll be Henson.  I’m wary of this play because this game also can get out of hand pretty quickly with the Clippers being double-digit favorites but a starting center for only $3800 is too enticing to pass up.  Especially a center that has the kind of upside Henson has.  His PER 36 numbers say it all: 15.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.4 blocks.  Yeah, the blocks are what stand out to me as well.  Henson is the kind of player than can get you 10 to 12 fantasy points on blocks alone.  Last year, he averaged 2 blocks per game in only 18.3 minutes.  So if he gets the start again and the Bucks can somehow keep it close for 3 and a half quarters, I’ll be more than happy with my decision to roster him.

Center

Frank Kaminsky ($3600, 14.1 USG) – I really don’t feel too comfortable with any of the value at center tonight unless some late breaking news hits us, so I’ll go with a gut call.  Frank Kaminsky has exceeded value in 4 straight games averaging 27.5 minutes in that span.  He’s attempting 3.4 3PA per 36 while shooting .417% so that’s good for a site like Draft Kings who gives you the 3 point bonus.  The Magic are 18th in DvP against centers so the matchup isn’t worrisome but yeah, this isn’t something I can totally get behind.  Just being Frank with you.  Ok, enough with all the jokes.

Feature Image Credit: By Chris Green (Chrisg21090 at en.wikipedia) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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