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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cheap Advice 12/15/15

daily fantasy basketball advice


Point Guard

Jameer Nelson ($4500, 17.4 USG), Darren Collison ($4900, 21.0 USG) – Don’t even think twice for cash games.  Use Nelson and Collison and continue onto the rest of your roster construction.  Rajon Rondo is serving his one game suspension tonight against the Rockets and Emmanuel Mudiay is out once again with his ankle injury.  Both provide great and much needed value for a small 4 game slate.  I mentioned yesterday that it would be Barnes and Nelson as the highest owned players and I was right.  Both were nearly 80% owned in cash and you’re going to have similar results tonight with Nelson and Collison.  Nelson has played insane minutes in the last two games filling in for Mudiay (38, 37) scoring 42.5 and 25.8 DK points. He’s got a favorable matchup going up against a Timberwolves team that gives up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing point guards.  And as for Collison, well you know he’s gonna get his shot attempts and play nearly 35 minutes (averages 14 FG attempts per 36) in the most fantasy friendly game of the night.  The Rockets/Kings game has by far the highest over/under on the night at 220!  Both teams are allergic to defense so get as much exposure possible to that one starting with Collison.

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Shooting Guard

Kevin Martin ($4700, 23.4 USG) – Kevin Martin was a forgotten man a couple of weeks ago.  Prior to the game against the Lakers on December 9th, he had only one game where he scored over 20 DK points.  His minutes have been low as ever and he just didn’t look like the same guy we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the years.  His shot needs to be on for him to produce fantasy points and facing the Lakers seemed to have solved all that.  Over the last 3 games, Martin has averaged 35 minutes and 35.53 DK PPG.  It’s easy math; he’s getting a fantasy point per min so if he can get near 30 min against the Nuggets, he’ll pay off his $4700 price tag.  The Nuggets are 29th in DvP against SG and the over/under is a respectable 205.  Everything adds up, just gotta hope the minutes are there.

Small Forward

Corey Brewer ($4200, 18.5 USG) – Don’t do this.  Yup, you read that right.  I can’t get behind one player at SF priced under $5000 tonight.  There’s really no reason to either with the value you’re already saving at point guard.  The cheapest I would go would be either Ariza or Casspi.  But let’s just say you felt you absolutely had to find value here to feel good about the rest of your lineup.  A gun to my head?  Corey Brewer.  I don’t feel comfortable recommending a guy who may only play 15 minutes often so I won’t start now, but at least Brewer’s been very solid in 3 out of his last 4 games (34.8, 30.3, 26.5 DK points). If things fall into place (like Harden or Ariza foul trouble, blowout or injuries), Brewer could have a big night because the matchup is as good as it gets.  Hey, you never know!

Power Forward

Donatas Motiejunas ($3400, 26.4 USG) – Ok, I know it’s a small sample size but look at that USG%!  Now, what I don’t want you to look at is his minutes played per game (11.6).  As of right now, I wouldn’t expect Terrance Jones to play after suffering a lacerated eyelid last night against Denver and Clint Capela is still questionable with a stomach virus.  Forced into the most playing time of his shortened season, Donatas produced 25.5 DK points in only 22 min.  I know the Rockets have been trying to ease him back from injury (back surgery) but it looks like he’s back to form.  They may have no choice but to play him depending on the status of Jones and Capela, but he’s earned more playing time regardless of their injuries.  I don’t wish injury or harm to anyone but I’d love nothing more than the Rockets to rule out at least one of Capela/Jones before lineups lock tonight.  With two value plays already being chalk as it gets (Collison & Nelson), you only need to hit on one more punt to be able to stack the rest of your team with studs and this maybe the best option.

Center

Joffrey Lauvergne ($4200, 20.8 USG) – King Joffrey’s production hinges on minutes played much like every other player in the league but his story is a bit different.  He’s stuck in the most unpredictable rotation in basketball.  We will never know whether a Nuggets big man will play 5, 15, 25 or 35 min.  The whole world was on Kenneth Faried last night and they got it right . . . for one half.  Then, he barely played again (only 20 min).  At least with Joffrey, he doesn’t cost as much as someone like Faried in the event that if he only plays 15 min, you’re screwed.  He’s priced like a guy you can’t trust at only $4200.  With Darrell Arthur (knee) unlikely to play and Nurkic already ruled out, you’re hoping for at least 20 minutes because that’s all Lauvergne needs to pay off his salary.  In the 3 (out of 7) games he’s played 20 min or more, Joffrey has scored 25.3, 31.5 and 29.8 DK points.  I’m really temped to go this route because of my desire to play both Harden and Cousins tonight but maybe I’ll just reserve that gamble for GPP’s.

Featured Image Credit: By Chris Green (Chrisg21090 at en.wikipedia) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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