Daily Fantasy Football: NFL Week 15 Contest-Winning Plays

week 3 NFL schedule

Vanilla Chalk(Cash Games)

($7,300)Alshon Jeffery @ MIN – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 19 Spread: 5
We have been targeting number one wide receivers all season against Minnesota due to the second year decline of play by Viking top corner Xavier Rhodes. Their defense creates a funnel in the passing game with the other corners far outperforming Rhodes this season making sense for the opposing team to target that matchup. He has 9 or more targets in every game he has been healthy this season. The Bears are expected to trail, projecting a ton of receiving work.

($4,200)Seattle vs CLE – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 28.75 Spread: -14.5
Seattle defense at home vs Johnny Manziel. If you aren’t licking your chops at this match up then your chops will be forever dry. I can almost guarantee one touchdown from that large Seattle team total comes on the defensive end.

($6,300)Lamar Miller @ SD – Over/Under: OFF Team Total: Spread: -1
As we saw the recommitted run game be very productive against the Giants on Monday night(I’m writing this Monday morning), the once again workhorse Lamar Miller, traverses the land to the fantasy point jackpot for running backs, San Diego. With the week 15 pricing being established due to contests opening Monday, take advantage at this unadjusted low price.

($7,800) Cam Newton @ NYG – Over/Under: OFF Team Total: Spread: -6
What does this guy have to do to be MVP? He is the antithesis to Tom Brady. Instead of wanting to gift the most valuable player award to one of the common receivers of the award with any stellar play, Cam Newton has to throw a pass, do a back flip, and proceed to run down the field and catch it himself to even be considered for the merit. And, let’s be honest, he basically has done this. He has averaged 27.5 fantasy points per game this season and is on one of the best undefeated runs of all time. The only thing you are afraid of here is that the Giants can’t generate enough offense for Cam to have to do much, but we saw the Panthers run up the score on Atlanta last week with a large lead in a shutout.

Confident Calls
($6,100) Matt Stafford @ Saints – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 23.75 Spread: 3
I think we have an old-fashioned shootout here on our hands, Yee Haw! All you need to know is that the defense on the other side of the field are wearing gold helmets and you can lock this guy in. It helps the Lions pass on more percentage of their plays than any other team in the league at 66.75%.

($4,600)Denard Robinson vs ATL – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 26 Spread: -3.5
T.J. Yeldon is dealing with a sprained knee and is seriously questionable for the Jaguar’s week 15 tilt with the Falcons. The Jaguars signed Jonas Gray off of the Dolphin’s practice squad indicating Yeldon’s availability this week is seriously in doubt. Should Yeldon remain sidelined, Robinson becomes an elite play due to price, talent, match up, role, and game theory. He should get volume in a great situation against the weak running defense of Atlanta allowing the fourth most fantasy points in a game Vegas projects them to be playing from ahead, leading to more carries.

($5,700)David Johnson @ PHI – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 27 Spread: -3.5
When will the David Johnson week come? I was almost positive we would have seen one boom game from the talented rookie in his last two outings as the workhorse back in a top 3 offense in the NFL. David Johnson was on the precipice last week, being stopped on the one yard line, delaying his fantasy explosion one more week. This is the week I like it to happen with Philadelphia allowing at least 100 yards rushing in four straight games including a Doug Martin 235 yard destruction. The Cardinals should have this game in hand early, leading to plenty of rushing work. How his price is still so low on both sites I have no idea.

Indiana Jones Plays(GPP)
($8,500)Julio Jones @ JAC – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 22.5 Spread: 3.5
This would be a great week to go all in on Julio in tournaments. Matt Ryan has looked terrible along with the entire Falcon offense. Julio hasn’t cracked 100 yards in three straight games and hasn’t recorded a touchdown since week eight. We know the upside this guy has and I think we are going to end up closer to the ceiling than the floor this week. Recency bias should keep his ownership level below 10%. It’s rare a guy can be a value above 8K, but Julio has 200 yard two touchdown upside.

($6,600) Drew Brees vs DET – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: -3
Shootout is Drew Bree’s middle name. Ask his parents, I didn’t name him. Having a seemingly reemergence as a top fantasy quarterback in 2015 although he did tie for the league lead in passing yards last year. We are seeing some of the BOOM Brees performances we were accustomed to for so long in fantasy circles, making him a perennial first couple round pick for years in season long league. This Monday night hammer game is one of those wild western gunslinging contests we look for in daily fantasy football. The over/under is 50.5, tied for highest of the week with the Saints given the home team 3 point edge. This game is going to be competitive and with both defenses reeling and generating little quarterback pressure both sides should be able to score handily. Drew Brees is averaging 24.8 fantasy points per contest, the sixth highest mark in the league.

($4,800)Ben Watson vs DET – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: -3
Ben Watson has been seeing number one wide receiver targets in the last three games with 9, 8, and 11 in chronological order, although he has capitalized on more than 50% of them just once. I think Watson remains heavily involved in the game plan this week, having emerging as one of Drew Bree’s favorite targets this year in a projected shootout with a 50.5 over/ under. Detroit allows the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends in the league.

($5,500)Jeremy Maclin @ BAL – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 25.25 Spread: -7.5
Here it is. The week formerly known as week 15, now referred to as ‘The Jeremy Maclin week’. If there was ever a week to be on that guy this is it. We have seen Maclin emerge as the primary receiving option in the Kansas City pass game having nine or more targets in his last 3 games. He also does battle with the see through Baltimore secondary. The best part about this match up is the Ravens stop the run incredibly well. The Chiefs will not be able to rely on the run game as their game plans are typically tailored. Maclin is an elite tournament play this week, especially at his depressed price point.

Featured Image Credit: By Kelly Bailey [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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Matt Dulcan