Happy Thanksgiving! Week 13 is the final week of the regular season for the majority of leagues out there, so let’s hit the full week of games bullet point style …
|40.9%||Opp. Rush %||36.5%|
|59.1%||Opp. Pass %||63.5%|
- Matt Stafford’s 39.1 completion percentage (18-46) last week was his lowest in 72 games played.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Golden Tate has 537 yards (of 1,047) after the catch this season. Seattle’s leading receiver (Doug Baldwin) has 491 receiving yards total.
- Detroit has scored just a touchdown on just two of their past 32 drives over the past three weeks.
- The Lions are last in the league in points per play (0.184) over the past three weeks.
- Calvin Johnson has scored in five consecutive Thanksgiving Day games.
- Chicago has allowed an opposing receiver to top 85 yards receiving in four consecutive games with three breaking the century mark.
- Matt Forte has played 91.1 percent of the Bears snaps this season; the next highest back (Le’Veon Bell) has played 80.2 percent of his teams’ snaps.
- Jay Cutler has single digit points in three of his past five starts. Detroit has allowed three top 10 quarterbacks over their past five games.
- The Bears allow the most red zone possessions per game (4.3) in the league.
Trust: Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Matt Stafford, Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall
|40.2%||Opp. Rush %||41.7%|
|59.8%||Opp. Pass %||58.3%|
- Dez Bryant has 33 touchdown receptions over past 35 games played.
- Bryant has caught a touchdown in 26 games since the start of 2012 and has nine games with multiple touchdown receptions over the same stretch, both the most in the league.
- Bryant has five different streaks of scoring in four consecutive games since 2012; no other player has three such streaks over the same stretch.
- Tony Romo has been sensational from an efficiency standpoint, ranking behind only Aaron Rodgers in yards per attempt (8.5 Y/A) and points per attempt (0.60) on the season.
- 10 quarterbacks have thrown multiple scores facing the Eagles and nine have been top 12 weekly scoring quarterbacks.
- Dallas runs 67.6 percent of the time on first down, most in the league. League average is 51.7 percent run on first down.
- Murray has 938 yards rushing on first down (176 attempts) this season. Le’Veon Bell ranks second in overall rushing yards (195 attempts) behind Murray with 951 yards on all downs.
- The Cowboys have just 12 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, second fewest in the league ahead of only Oakland (10).
- Mark Sanchez has the third most pass attempts (124) in the league over the past three weeks.
- Sanchez is tied for the league lead (Brian Hoyer) with 20 completions of 20 or more yards over the past four weeks.
- Jordan Matthews has eight receptions of 20 or more yards over the past four weeks, tied for second most in the league. Jeremy Maclin has six, sixth in the league.
- Since week 5, LeSean McCoy has six games with 80 or more rushing yards, tied for the league lead with DeMarco Murray over that timeframe.
- Dallas is allowing the 7th most points per rushing attempt (0.64) on the season, but has masked that by seeing the 20th most rushing attempts.
- Just three of 140 offensive drives by the Eagles have gone over five minutes in time of possession.
Trust: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Mark Sanchez, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Maclin
Bust: Darren Sproles
|42.4%||Opp. Rush %||38.7%|
|57.6%||Opp. Pass %||61.3%|
- Marshawn Lynch has rushed for a touchdown (five total) in four of his past five games facing San Francisco with a receiving touchdown in two of those games.
- Lynch accounts for four of the top 10 rushing performances against San Francisco since 2011.
- Russell Wilson is second in the NFL with 239 rushing yards in the fourth quarter this season.
- Seattle has rushed on 57.5 percent of their plays over the past three weeks, highest percentage in the league.
- Just 52.8 percent of the offensive yards by Seattle this season have been passing, lowest percentage in the league.
- Jermaine Kearse has converted just two of 18 career red zone targets for touchdowns.
- San Francisco allows 27 yards per drive, fewest in the NFL.
- Seattle allows 107.8 yards per game rushing on the road as opposed to 72.2 at home.
- Carlos Hyde has 10 carries inside the 10-yard line (four touchdowns) to Frank Gore‘s seven (two scores).
- Vernon Davis has converted 43 percent of his career red zone targets (36 of 84) for touchdowns, but has just one red zone target (converted for a score) on the season.
- Anquan Boldin has been a top 12 scoring receiver in four of his past six games.
Trust: Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch
Reasonable Return: Anquan Boldin, Russell Wilson
|43.4%||Opp. Rush %||38.5%|
|56.6%||Opp. Pass %||61.5%|
- In his first game back, Josh Gordon caught eight of 16 targets for 120 yards while playing 52 snaps. The targets and yards were season highs for any Cleveland receiver.
- Gordon was targeted on 30.8 percent of his snaps, the highest percentage for any receiver in the league in a game this season (minimum 20 snaps played).
- Cleveland is tied with Seattle for the most rushing attempts (191) in the second half this season.
- Isaiah Crowell‘s seven rushing touchdowns are tied with Ron Johnson in 1969 for the most rushing scores by a Browns’ rookie runner through 11 games.
- 45.6 percent of Crowell’s output is from touchdowns, the highest percentage of all top 50 scoring backs.
- Fred Jackson has been targeted on 17.7 percent of his snaps, third most of all running backs in the league.
- The Buffalo defense leads the league in sack percentage at 10.5 percent.
- Kyle Orton ranks 11th in passing points per game at 16.3.
- After catching 21 passes for 393 yards in Orton’s first four starts, Sammy Watkins has 10 receptions for 94 yards over the past three weeks.
Trust: Josh Gordon, Fred Jackson
|41.0%||Opp. Rush %||37.8%|
|59.0%||Opp. Pass %||62.2%|
- Justin Forsett is first of all backs (minimum 100 attempts) in points per rushing attempt at 0.85.
- Forsett has yet to convert a carry inside the 5-yard line for a touchdown (0-5), six of his seven scores have come from outside of 10 yards, which leads the league.
- 32 of Forsett’s 155 attempts (20.6 percent) have gone for 10 or more yards, second behind only DeMarco Murray’s 38 (on 268 attempts, 14.2 percent).
- Baltimore has converted just four of 20 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard for scores as team.
- Six quarterbacks have thrown for 290 or more yards facing Baltimore, tied for second most in the league.
- The Ravens have allowed the top scoring weekly quarterback in two of their past three games. Philip Rivers hasn’t been a top 12 scoring quarterback since week 6.
- Torrey Smith has been a top 30 scoring receiver in five of his past six games played.
- Keenan Allen ranks 45th in yards per target at 6.7 yards.
Trust: Justin Forsett, Torrey Smith Philip Rivers
|41.3%||Opp. Rush %||43.7%|
|58.7%||Opp. Pass %||56.3%|
- Cam Newton rushing yards through 10 games played have dropped every year of his career. From 411 yards (2011), 394 yards, 328 yards, to 293 yards this season.
- Eight of Newton’s 12 touchdown passes this season have come in the fourth quarter, most in the league.
- Charles Johnson has 28 percent of the Minnesota targets over the past two weeks, most on the team.
- Five of Kelvin Benjamin‘s eight touchdowns this season have come in the fourth quarter trailing by 13 or more points.
- Carolina has allowed just 2.6 yards per carry over their past three games.
- Jerick McKinnon has just three carries inside the 10-yard line on the season.
- No tight end has reached 60 receiving yards against the Vikings this season and only one (Jimmy Graham) has had five or more receptions.
Trust: Red Zone Channel not showing this game.
Reasonable Return: Kelvin Benjamin, Charles Johnson, Greg Jennings
|42.1%||Opp. Rush %||44.3%|
|57.9%||Opp. Pass %||55.7%|
- Jeremy Hill has 448 rushing yards on 81 carries over the past four weeks. Gio Bernard has 491 rushing yards on 126 carries for the season.
- Hill has four runs of 20 or more yards on those attempts while Bernard has only one all season long.
- Hill leads the league in fourth quarter rushing yards (255) on the season.
- Andy Dalton is on pace for a career low 492 passing attempts this season.
- Dalton’s 3.6 percent touchdown rate would be the lowest of his career. He was at 3.9 percent as rookie, 5.1 percent in 2012 and 5.6 percent in 2013.
- The Bengals lead the NFL with 11 rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line.
- Tampa Bay has held four of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced less than 250 passing yards.
- Vincent Jackson has scored on just 1.9 percent of his targets (two of 103) this season. His career average before this season was 6.5 percent.
- Mike Evans has scored on 9.8 percent of his targets this season.
Trust: Jeremy Hill, A.J. Green
Bust: Gio Bernard, Josh McCown, Tampa Running Backs
Reasonable Return: Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Andy Dalton, Mohamed Sanu
|47.2%||Opp. Rush %||41.4%|
|52.8%||Opp. Pass %||58.6%|
- Tennessee is allowing 183.3 rushing yards per game over their past four games and has allowed 150 or more yards in every game.
- Andre Johnson is averaging 60.6 receiving yards per game, which would be his lowest total since 2005 (52.9 per game).
- Johnson has now scored on just 2.4 percent of targets (12 of 497) over the past four seasons.
- Zach Mettenberger has thrown a touchdown on 5.1 percent of his pass attempts, wich ranks 10th overall and the highest of all rookies this season. Derek Carr is at 3.5 percent (31st), Blake Bortles 2.6 percent (36th) and Teddy Bridgewater 2.3 percent (38th) on the season.
- Mettenberger ranks 9th in passing points per attempt at 0.46.
- Tennessee is averaging just 18.7 rushing attempts per game over their past three, fewest in the league.
- The Titans have faced 200 second half rushing attempts on the season, most in the league.
|43.4%||Opp. Rush %||38.9%|
|56.6%||Opp. Pass %||61.1%|
- Since Robert Griffin‘s return, Washington has scored on a touchdown on five of 34 drives (15 percent). They’ve also committed five turnovers on those possessions.
- Washington quarterback passing points per attempt: Griffin 0.31 points per pass attempt, Kirk Cousins averaged 0.44 and Colt McCoy 0.45 per attempt.
- Alfred Morris had 90 rushing yards and has averaged at least 4.5 YPC in all four complete games played by Griffin.
- Morris’ 125 rushing yards last week were the most against the 49ers since Ryan Grant (129 yards) in 2009.
- The Colts have run 137 red zone plays this season. They ran 138 in all of 2013.
- Indianapolis has run the most pass plays (46) inside the 10-yard line this season.
- Dan Herron had a touch on 48.6 percent of his snaps last week, opposed to 31.7 percent for Trent Richardson.
- Herron had four red zone touches to Richardson’s one last week.
- Donte Moncrief played more snaps than Hakeem Nicks for the first time this season.
|46.7%||Opp. Rush %||43.8%|
|53.3%||Opp. Pass %||56.2%|
- Odell Beckham had eight of 15 targets in the first half this past week after having just 12 of 80 targets in the first half of the previous four games.
- Beckham now has three 100-yard receiving games on the season, tying Byron Williams for the most by a Giants receiver in his rookie season.
- After throwing five interceptions on his first 277 attempts of the season, Eli Manning has thrown seven on his past 129 passes.
- Jacksonville has allowed 34 pass plays of over 25 yards or more, most in the league. The Giants have allowed 33, second most.
- The Giants have allowed 10 top 20 scoring running backs on the season, fourth most in the league. The Jaguars have allowed 11, tied with Atlanta for the second most behind Cincinnati at 12.
- Denard Robinson has been a top 20 scorer in four of his past five games.
- Rashad Jennings has reached 70 rushing yards only once this season.
- The Giants have held the past six receiving units they’ve faced to fewer than 12 cumulative receptions and have allowed the receptions to receivers (114) this season.
Trust: Odell Beckham, Denard Robinson
Reasonable Return: Eli Manning, Rashad Jennings, Rueben Randle
|43.8%||Opp. Rush %||40.4%|
|56.2%||Opp. Pass %||59.6%|
- Mark Ingram leads the league with 16 carries inside the 5-yard line.
- Over the past six games, Kenny Stills is second on the team in targets (36) and leads the Saints in receiving yards (388).
- Pittsburgh has allowed an opposing tight end to score in four consecutive games.
- Heath Miller is second of all tight ends in snaps per game (68.8), but 17th in targets in targets (54).
- Antonio Brown leads all receivers in snaps per game at 71.9 per game.
- 12 of Antonio Brown’s past 17 receiving scores have come at home.
- Ben Roethlisberger‘s weekly finishes at home this season have been QB12, QB10, QB11, QB1 and QB1.
Trust: Jimmy Graham, Kenny Still, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger
Bust: Marques Colston, Heath Miller
|49.1%||Opp. Rush %||42.7%|
|50.9%||Opp. Pass %||57.3%|
- Latavius Murray has eight carries for 155 yards and two touchdowns the past two weeks. Darren McFadden has 52 carries for 143 yards and zero touchdowns over the past five weeks.
- The Raiders have run 96 times in the second half this season, fewest in the league.
- Oakland leads the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage (76.5 percent), but are last in the league in red zone opportunities (1.5) per game.
- Mychal Rivera averages 5.5 yards per target, which ranks 45th out the top 50 scoring tight ends.
- The Rams have allowed 15 plus receptions to six of the past seven opposing receiver units they’ve faced.
- Tre Mason has a touch on 56 percent of his snaps, second highest percentage (Mark Ingram) in the league.
- Stedman Bailey was targeted 17.6 percent of his snaps last week (28 percent of his routes) , the highest by percentage for any Rams receiver since Brian Quick in week 2.
Trust: Tre Mason
Bust: Mychal Rivera, Derek Carr, Kenny Britt
|37.8%||Opp. Rush %||45.1%|
|62.2%||Opp. Pass %||54.9%|
- Arizona has allowed just four touchdowns of their opponents’ past 42 drives, lowest percentage in the league over the past four weeks.
- The Cardinals have punted on 51 percent (61 of 119) of their drives this season, second highest percentage in the league behind Oakland (55 percent).
- Andre Ellington averages just 0.42 points per attempt, which ranks second to last (Alfred Blue) of backs with 100 plus carries.
- Ellington has 47 carries for 89 yards (1.9 YPC) over the past three weeks and has rushed for 4.0 YPC or greater in only three games this season.
- Michael Floyd in week 3 (114 yards) is the only Arizona receiver that has reached 70 receiving yards in Drew Stanton‘s five starts.
- Matt Ryan leads the league in fourth quarter pass attempts (124), but has just three fourth quarter passing touchdowns.
- Over the past six games, Roddy White has eight more receptions (40), 21 more receiving yards (449) and two more touchdowns (3) than Julio Jones on six fewer targets (55).
- Julio Jones hasn’t been a top 12 scoring receiver since week 5.
Trust: Roddy White
Bust: Matt Ryan, Steven Jackson, Michael Floyd
|39.8%||Opp. Rush %||44.3%|
|60.2%||Opp. Pass %||55.7%|
- Tom Brady has been a top seven weekly scoring option in six of his past seven games, averaging 24.3 points over that stretch.
- During that time, he’s thrown multiple scores in every game, totaling 22 touchdown passes, which is second behind only Peyton Manning (26).
- Green Bay has punted just 36 times this season (fewest in the league) and have 39 offensive touchdowns.
- New England averages 40.5 yards per drive over the past eight weeks in which they have scored on 62 percent (47 of 76) of their possessions, both highs in the league.
- The Packers average 39.6 yards per drive and has scored on 53 percent (39 of 73) of their possessions over the same stretch, both second in the league.
- The Patriots have 41 rushing attempts inside their opponents’ 10-yard line, most in the NFL.
- Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are tied with Alshon Jeffery for the league lead in targets inside the 10-yard line. Cobb has converted seven for scores while Nelson just two.
- Nelson has six touchdowns on passes of 25 yards or more, most in the league.
- Green Bay is tied for the fewest pass plays (72) in the fourth quarter this season.
Trust: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Rodgers
Bust: Julian Edelman
|33.3%||Opp. Rush %||41.9%|
|66.7%||Opp. Pass %||58.1%|
- Kansas City just allowed their first two rushing scores of the season last week, but still rank 26th in rushing yards allowed (129.4) per game and are dead last in yards per carry (5.0) allowed.
- Travis Kelce is averaging 10.0 yards per target, tops of all tight ends with 40 or more targets on the season.
- Jamaal Charles has scored in six consecutive games, longest current streak in the league.
- Denver has allowed an opposing receiver to score in seven consecutive games (11 total).
- Kansas City hasn’t allowed multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in any game this season.
- Peyton Manning has thrown 13 touchdowns to seven interceptions on the road this season as opposed to 21 and two at home.
- Demaryius Thomas has 100 yards or a touchdown in five straight games facing Kansas City.
- Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both tied for the league lead with seven 100-yard receiving games.
Trust: C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles
|39.4%||Opp. Rush %||41.0%|
|60.6%||Opp. Pass %||59.0%|
- Mike Wallace has converted seven of 16 (43 percent) red zone targets for scores this season. He had converted just 10 of 57 in his career (18 percent) prior to this season.
- Wallace has now scored in 11 of his past 16 games, but hasn’t had double-digit targets since week 3 and hasn’t reached 60 receiving yards since week 6.
- Jarvis Landry leads Miami in targets (32), receptions (24), yards (195) and touchdowns (4) over the past four weeks.
- Miami has one pass play of over 40 yards on the season, last in the league.
- Ryan Tannehill has 73 red zone pass attempts this season (tied for the league lead). He had 66 red zone pass attempts all of 2013.
- Tannehill has been a top eight scoring quarterback in three of his past four games.
- The Jets have allowed 19 red zone passing touchdowns, tied with Chicago for the most in the league. 11 of those have to opposing tight ends.
- New York averages 4.7 yards per play, last in the league.
- Both Michael Vick and Geno Smith average 0.27 points per pass attempt which is tied for last of all quarterbacks.
Trust: Ryan Tannehill, Charles Clay
Reasonable Return: Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average