Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3)
Thursday Night Football features its fifth straight divisional matchup, yet none of the previous four games have been decided by less than 20 points. Of the two teams opening Week 6, Andrew Luck‘s Colts appear far more likely to win a blowout and continue the tradition of Thursday Night Massacres.
Whether led by Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, Indianapolis has been fortunate enough to be strong at the quarterback position for nearly two decades. While Houston has only reached the playoffs twice in their brief existence – by comparison, Manning was in the NFL four full seasons before the Texans – the have consistently built their team around one component: defensive line. Perhaps to counter the longstanding success of Indianapolis’ quarterbacks, the Texans have drafted a defensive lineman with seven of their last eleven first-round picks.
Houston’s foundation of a solid defensive line has led to a stout and opportunistic group that is arguably the biggest reason for the team’s early season success. In an oddly counter-intuitive statistic, Houston ranks fifth-worst in yards allowed, but fourth-best in conceding points. The most likely reason for this vast difference in output is that Houston leads the league with twelve takeaways, cutting down threats when they need it most.
The task will be tall, to say the least – the Colts have won eight straight Thursday Night Football games – but the Texans, at home – home teams on Thursday Night Football this season are 4-1 overall – are being largely overlooked. A solid defense returning from a tough overtime loss against a division opponent on the heels of a three-game winning streak looks like the key ingredients in the recipe for an upset.
Houston and Indianapolis play the closest Thursday Night Football game so far, this season, and Houston steals the win by a late field goal, beating the spread. After all, underdogs won’t be obliterated on Thursdays forever.
