The Fantasy Football Today analysts take a look at their newly picked fantasy teams to see what was learned.
There are some players for your 2014 re-draft leagues in need of a second look. Some are highly overrated, and some are just big-time losers with big-time names.
Wes Welker is currently the 37th player taken in Yahoo drafts, which at least comes 13 spots above FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rating (ECR) of 50. This highly touted list of experts, after all, includes a guy named Dave Major, among others. This writer has him at 21, offering more credit to Welker’s talent and 2014 opportunity.
Since 2007, the five-time Pro Bowler has only managed to lead the NFL in receiving by 53 catches. Welker reeled in 746 receptions during that span, while the next closest were Brandon Marshall (693) and Jason Witten (627). Check that math.
That means that little Broncos slot guy averaged 106.6 catches per year. Witten caught 119 balls less over those seven years, at his own rate of 89.6 per season. So even had Witten played an eighth season during that stretch, he’d have only produced 716.6 receptions, still 30 fewer than Welker. Essentially, Welker managed to record eight Pro Bowl-worthy seasons in seven years.
If seven years is too long, that’s fair enough. Shorten that window to six, five, four, or three years, and Welker is still the league’s leading receiver.
So last year yielded his fewest catches since his time in Miami. So what? Now Eric Decker is a Jet, and who’s going to steal the targets, Emmanuel Sanders? Sanders’ best year was 2013, when he caught 67 passes for 740 yards and six touchdowns.
Sure, some improvement is to be expected leaving Ben Roethlisberger for Peyton Manning. But Yahoo owners are still scooping up Ryan Mathews, Larry Fitzgerald, and DeMarco Murray ahead of Welker. No thanks.
Another player for your re-consideration is Andre Johnson.
Are owners afraid because of his short holdout? Johnson managed to put up his best year in 2012 after a sluggish start. Through week five, he was averaging only 3.4 catches for 56.6 yards and 0.4 trips to pay dirt. But the Texans’ wideout managed to light it up down the stretch, finishing with 112 receptions and a career-best 1598 yards.
Once bitten, three or four times shy is a familiar feeling for fantasy owners. Johnson is going at 39th overall in Yahoo leagues, and FantasyPros ECR has him at 37.
Owners are happily taking a stab at Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, and Rob Gronkowski before the seven-time Pro Bowler. Those guys may be all well and good, but two are not their team’s primary target, and the other can’t stay on the field. Gronkowski has only started 17 games over the past two years, while earning 94 catches for 1,382 yards.
In contrast, remember all those spans that Welker led the league in receiving? Well, no one has caught more balls over the last two seasons than Andre Johnson. His 221 receptions are 15 more than Calvin Johnson, and 30 more than Wes Welker. Give Johnson another look.
It’s a common theme, but the respect for some players just isn’t adding up this year. A player’s most important ability is his availability. It’s important to know your scoring rules, but your player isn’t likely to score many points from the doctor’s examination table, or that funny bullpen car that Tom Berenger drives in Major League.
You’re going to hear three names next. Over the past three seasons, they have accounted for 83 starts, or 9.2 per season. And on average, they are all happily gone and rostered by pick 41 in Yahoo drafts.
Don’t you want to be sure about your top players? You’ve got plenty of rounds left where you can and will make mistakes. Those top players are your foundation, and those later picks are lotto tickets that can lead you to the promised land. If you’re wrong on the core, then you’re praying the late picks work out just to save face.
Percy Harvin has gotten 7.3 starts since 2011. During the same time, C.J. Spiller has averaged 10 starts to DeMarco Murray’s commanding 10.3. Revisit their numbers if you’ve got their names circled. Here’s another startling number of relevance: zero. Of these players’ twelve combined seasons, zero have included a year of 16 starts. Yep.
2013 was Murray’s first 1,000 yard campaign, tallying 1,121 yards over 14 games. Spiller’s only 1,000 yard year was in 2012 (1,244 yards), but last year he fell back to 933 yards.
Harvin has never reached the summit of 1,000 receiving yards, combining for just 690 since 2012. What’s most daunting is owners’ stubbornness to keep Murray in the top 20 despite never really having earned it. He’s currently going 17th on Yahoo boards, exactly where he went in 2012. He fell all the way to 32 in 2013, still generous considering his numbers.
The moral of the story may be, cross out the names and pick based on the stat sheets. As with many games, the biggest mistake in fantasy can be playing with your heart.
Stats and data courtesy of pro-football-reference.com and fantasypros.com.
