When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Haren) at Cincinnati Reds (Cingrani)
It worries me that Haren has gone ten straight starts without allowing fewer than three earned runs. All in all not a bad match-up tonight, but I’d rather avoid limited upside players. The Dodgers don’t have many players too hot with the bat lately so I’m not stacking their bats or anything tonight.
Hanley Ramirez (SS) – $8446
Scott Van Slyke (OF) – $4785
Cingrani is avoidable against the Dodgers lineup but the Reds bats are an intriguing target tonight. Haren has struck out three or fewer batters in five of his last seven starts and the Reds will get their runs. I will wait to see who they trot out at catcher but there are a couple of good options here tonight I think.
Jay Bruce (OF) – $6096
Brayan Pena (C) – $4227