When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Cleveland Indians (House) at Baltimore Orioles (Norris)
T.J. House isn’t even offered on Draftstreet so there’s no need to worry about him for tonight. Also, Cleveland’s hitting the ball fairly well of late and there are a lot of their hitters that are on good tears right now that are fairly cheap. They’re a good target to stack and will otherwise provide good hitting value.
Lonnie Chisenhall (3B) – $5117
David Murphy (OF) – $5064
Bud Norris has been pretty hit-or-miss this year and with the way Cleveland is swinging the bats, I’ll avoid him for tonight. As is standard, I’ll have Adam Jones in most of my lineups with the lefty House on the mound.
Adam Jones (OF) – $7512