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Daily Fantasy Baseball DFS Value Update and Lineup – May 21

Michael Clifford breaks down every game to find the most favorable daily fantasy baseball matchups.

Matt Adams
Matt Adams

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.

First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.

Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.

With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.

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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Ryu) at New York Mets (deGrom)

This will be Ryu’s first start since returning from the DL with a shoulder problem. His two starts before his DL stint resulted in 18 hits and seven earned runs in 11 innings. I’ll wait to see how healthy he really is before using him for cash games. deGrom is a bit of an unknown with just one start so far (and a good one, at that) so I’m not going heavy on Dodgers hitters tonight.

Juan Uribe (3B) – $4824

Jacob deGrom had a very good first start but I don’t think I’ll be using him against the Dodgers, who are one of the best teams at hitting righties in baseball. There are some Mets that are very good at hitting lefties so I won’t shy away from them in Ryu’s first start back.

David Wright (3B) – $5691

Juan Lagares (OF) – $4044

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