When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Detroit Tigers (Verlander) at Cleveland Indians (Bauer)
What worries me about Verlander is he hasn’t really had a shutdown game yet. Every start but one has featured at least two earned runs. Cleveland is also one of the best teams hitting right-handed pitching so far this season. I’ll take a pass on JV tonight. With the Tigers running hot, the hitters are all pretty expensive. I’m not sure what to expect from Bauer so I’ll take it easy on Detroit hitters.
Torii Hunter (OF) – $6792
Bauer had one excellent start this year but has a track record behind him of not being so excellent. He has genuinely seemed to have found his control in the Minors and would take a chance on him against just about any other team except the Tigers. There are a couple of cheaper Indians players I’ll look for.
David Murphy (OF) – $6031
Lonnie Chisenhall (3B) – $4675
