When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Los Angeles Angels (Weaver) at Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison)
After struggling to start, Jered Weaver has just four earned runs allowed over his last three starts and three walks to go along with that. It’s tempting to use him today, especially after seeing what Tyler Skaggs did to this team yesterday. It will take a braver DFSer than me to do that, though. I will be shying away from most of their hitters against Hutchison, too.
Erick Aybar (SS) – $6064
Drew Hutchison has been knocked around his last couple of outings but he’s also averaged seven innings over his last three outings. He also has a 20:3 strike-out to walk ratio in those three outings. He’s a good mid-tier pitcher today. I will avoid most Jays’ hitters against Weaver, though.
Adam Lind (1B) – $6825
Drew Hutchison (SP) – $15,005
