When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Volquez)
The St. Louis offense has shown a bit more consistency over the last week and facing Edinson Volquez is usually a boon to offensive production. I will look at more than one of their hitters today. Lynn has started to destroy his K:BB ratio so I think I’ll just avoid him today.
Matt Adams (1B) – $5771
Yadier Molina (C) – $7188
Volquez’s nice run to start the year is over and he deserves no consideration in any type of game. Like the Cardinals, though, there are a couple of players that I will be giving long looks to in almost every type of DFS game today.
Andrew McCutchen (OF) – $7699
Neil Walker (2B) – $6061