Daily Fantasy Hockey Value Update – December 12

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

Dallas is starting to slip in the West, having gone just 3-3-3 in their last nine games and been outscored 28-25. There are a lot of problems, but a lot of it is the loss of Stéphane Robidas; since he suffered his broken leg on Nov. 29, the Stars have allowed over 33 shots against per game, which is a couple of shots higher than their season to that point. These are all small sample sizes of course, but it’s something that was expected to happen and is happening.

That’s not to say that Nashville is anything special. They won 4-1 a couple of nights ago in New York, their first win since November 27^th. The Predators failed to convert on the power play in that game, bringing their running nine-game efficiency rate down to a deplorable 4.8-percent over their last 21 opportunities.

I’m not overly keen on anyone in this game, but will be sprinkling some Stars skaters here and there.

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

Colorado is finally seeing their luck run out.

For anyone that reads my “buy-high/sell-low” posts, you’re aware of the concept of PDO. Basically, it’s a rough estimation of how lucky a team is. The Avalanche were so “lucky” in the first two months of the season that despite being outscored 16-7 over their last four games, they are still tied for first in the NHL for team PDO.

That regression will continue, though it’ll be more of a subtle slap in the face than a sledgehammer over the head. In short, while they’ll continue to regress, it’s not feasible to pick particular games where it’ll hit them hard.

Colorado’s ice cold power play continues, as today marks the official three-week mark since the Avalanche last scored a power play goal. Three weeks.

If Colorado wants to get its power play back on track, it’ll have to be another night. The Jets have only averaged two short handed opportunities against over their last four games. Over their last eight games, Winnipeg is a very solid 90-percent efficiency on the penalty kill.

Matt Duchene still doesn’t look right for Colorado, so I’m avoiding him, his line mates and his power play line mates until further notice.

Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames

File this one under “a year too late”:

Calgary #Flames fire GM Jay Feaster and his assistant, John Weisbrod, with #NHL team sporting 11-15-4 record. http://t.co/QTrqDHnj0T

— Hockey Night in Canada (@hockeynight) December 12, 2013

What that means for the on-ice product tonight, it’s a toss-up. It’s possible the Flames look at this as a wake-up call, something to rally around. It’s also possible the Flames keep Flamin’ and play like the sub-.500 team they are.

From Carolina’s perspective, their Western road trip continues. After playing so well for several games in a row, they have now lost back-to-back games on the road in the West, with game three tonight. It’s not to say they’re playing poorly – they haven’t allowed 30+ shots in five straight games – but they’re not getting the puck luck they were not too long ago.

This could be a high-scoring game, so I’m not particularly fond of either team. Both allow a lot of goals against (Calgary more so) which means the goalies are probably to be avoided. I would pick the value plays from these teams, but would avoid too many high-priced guys.

New York Islanders at Phoenix Coyotes

This Islanders managed to pull off a 3-2 shootout win in San Jose a couple of nights ago despite being outshot 48-28. As the cliché goes, “Any Given Tuesday”.

That shootout win was only the Islanders’ second win in their last 12 games, coincidentally both were in the extra skills competition. It was also their first time since November 7^th that the Islanders allowed fewer than three goals against on the road. Don’t forget, they allowed 48 shots against in that win, so it’s probably a bit lucky that streak was broken.

Phoenix, for all their troubles, are a good home team. In 13 home games, they have scored at the sixth-highest rate of any NHL team and are 9-2-2 overall.

This is another game that could see a lot of goals, as the Coyotes has four power play goals in their last six games while the Islanders have given up seven short handed goals in their last five games. That said, I would expect the Coyotes to pull it out in the end.

Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers

The Bruins have been on quite the incredible stretch of games and it’s not really getting a lot of attention. Over their last 17 games, the Bruins are 13-3-1, amassing an incredible 27 of a possible 34 points. In their four losses, they allowed 14 goals against. In their 13 wins, they have allowed 21 goals against.

The Oilers have been almost just as hot, having gone 7-3-1 in their last 11 games, but have done it a little bit differently. Those seven wins have seen the Oilers score 33 goals while the four losses have seen 17 goals against.

In reality, these are two teams that are pretty much polar opposites. Boston is a very good possession team that slows the game down and tries to break the will of the opponent, or get them off their game at least. Edmonton plays a much more free-flowing game but is prone to a lot of defensive mistakes that can lead to more risks up front.

This could be a 6-5 game or a 2-1 game and I’m not sure there’s much of a difference of likelihood of either of those outcomes, given the teams we have. Devan Dubnyk is cheap enough to consider in net, but I might just stay away from this game altogether.

Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks

The second night of a back-to-back is never an easy thing for a team. We saw a very good Los Angeles team get outplayed by an inferior Toronto team last night (albeit, it was probably Toronto’s best game of the year) and Minnesota is going into the Shark Tank to face a rested San Jose squad.

Yesterday’s daily piece talked about Minnesota’s struggles to score on the road, and that continued last night as they had just one goal and 24 shots in Anaheim.

On the flip side, San Jose has lost four straight games, but it’s a bit deceiving; the Sharks have averaged 39 shots on goal in those four losses, while they allowed just 41 shots on goal in their last two games combined.

I think this game is pretty straightforward. Minnesota isn’t a very good road team and they showed it last night. The Sharks are looking like Cup contenders almost every night, regardless of the outcomes of the game. I would be fine taking Antti Niemi in net, this is a good spot to spend a few extra hundred dollars chasing the shutout.

Good luck with today’s games!

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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