Running Backs
It’s a fantastic week for running back plays. We’ve reached the point in the season where some defenses are just crippled and looking ahead to 2014.
Matt Forte ($8600) – Forte has nine top ten weekly finishes and Dallas has allowed eight top ten backs this season. Only Jamaal Charles has been a steadier back than Forte this season, in a ripe matchup, he’s worth his cost.
Demarco Murray ($8000) – Chicago has allowed an 85 yard rusher in seven consecutive weeks and is surrendering 226 rushing yards per game over their past three, this one is a finger roll.
Eddie Lacy ($7000) –  Try and block out what you seen from Lacy while you were carving your bird last Thursday. He ran into the league’s hottest run defense and was attached to total inept QB play from Matt Flynn. Flynn is still like starting this week, but the matchup is beautiful for Green Bay to avoid needing him. Atlanta has allowed six top six backs since week eight.
Steven Jackson ($6700) – Try NOT to block out what you seen last Thursday from the Packer rush defense. They’ve allowed 184 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks on the ground and Jackson has three touchdowns in the past two weeks.
Bobby Rainey ($5800) – Sure, Rainey may not be the dynamo that was created by the Falcon defense two weeks ago, but he’s still a great way to save salary this week. He’s had at least 18 touches against the Lions and Panthers since his breakout and gets a Bills defense that resurrected the ghost of Steven Jackson last weekend.
Wild Card Play: Ray Rice ($6400) I hate to use another Raven here, but this is another case of the matchup speaking. Rice has taken advantage of previous good matchups (Chicago), he’s in a price range of backs I like a little more, but I have no issues using him if you need to save.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson ($10,000) – The Eagles have allowed 11 top 12 weekly wide receivers and Megatron has seven top six weekly finishes. He may be underpriced at 10 grand.
Mike Wallace ($6800) – Wallace is a player that will be unlikely used a ton, but offers big upside. Pittsburgh has gone on a recent stretch of playing pass heavy teams (DET, CLE, BAL) and opponents are throwing 44 passes per game over their past three weeks. Miami is another pass heavy club, throwing 40 times themselves over the same run, so this sets up for big volume for Ryan Tannehill. Wallace himself is hot (12 rec. for 209 yards, 2 TD the past two weeks) and will draw Ike Taylor, who is playing one of the worst stretches of his career, allowing 486 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his coverage over his past five games.
Michael Floyd ($6700) – If it weren’t for Josh Gordon, Floyd would be the hottest receiver in the league right now. He has 396 receiving yards over his past three and four touchdowns over his past seven. I elaborated on Carson Palmer likely finding great fortune this weekend earlier this week, attach yourself to him.
Torrey Smith ($6600) – For those who can’t stomach Flacco but want to exploit the Vikings pass defense, Smith is the play. He’s coming off of his first top 12 week and has scored in three of his past four games.
Keenan Allen ($6500) – Allen rolls out of bed each Sunday with 100 yards receiving. He’s hit the century mark in five of his past nine games and has had nine of more targets in five of those games. The downside is that the Giants haven’t allowed a WR touchdown since week six and Allen himself hasn’t scored in his past four games.
Riley Cooper & Kendall Wright ($5900) – you’re paying for your preference of  ceiling versus floor  here, and depending on what type of game you’re playing in, the choice is a little easier. Cooper has a juicy matchup what should be a high scoring affair, but still hasn’t had over seven targets in a game. Wright has 69 yards or more in eight straight with six or more grabs in six of those games.
Julian Edelman ($4900) – If you’re looking to really save some coin at receiver (perhaps to fit in Megatron or Gronk/Graham), Edelman is your guy. He has had back to back strong games (nine catches in each game on 23 targets for 211 yards) and Aaron Dobson is once again out with a foot injury.
Wild Card Play: Jordy Nelson ($6500) – If Rogers somehow was cleared to play this week, Jordy would be a last minute alley-oop for your DFS teams. Since Rogers went down, Nelson only has topped 70 receiving yards only once, and still hasn’t scored with any of the backups. Still, he is an elite talent at a super cheap cost in great matchup. No other receiver in his price range has a higher ceiling.
Tight Ends
When building my own teams, I almost always play Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham every week unless there’s a screaming value or I’m in love with spending elsewhere. I feel like the majority prefers to save on tight ends and are less volatile than the big receivers. They offer such a consistent weekly hammer over their peers, they are worth the squeeze. So for the future, I won’t mention them here, just know they are beyond elite options and matchup proof.
Jason Witten ($6500) – Since the Bears haven’t been able to stop the run, they’ve also allowed a starting tight end to go for 70 plus receiving yards in five of their past seven games. Dallas should frequently move the ball all game long and when Witten goes big, he goes real big, with four games of 15 or more points this season.
Ladarius Green ($5200) – Green is surging late season, seeing five or more targets in each of the past three weeks and has scored in each of the past two weeks. He played 61 snaps last week versus the Bengals and the Giants have allowed eight top 12 tight ends this season.
Jared Cook ($4900) – Athletic tight end? Check. Arizona defense? Check. Cook also has five or more targets in four of the five starts made by Kellen Clemens, he’ll likely be the third most used tight end this weekend and in most of my own lineups if Walker doesn’t play.
Delanie Walker ($4800) – Walker reportedly is showing no ill effects from his concussion as of Friday night and could suit up Sunday. Â If you checked out the Trust or Bust piece this week, you can see he’s a great play this weekend at his low cost for those who just can’t trust Cook.
Wild Card Play: Rob Housler ($4500)- If you are looking to punt tight end while still scoring points, Housler comes in at the basement price. After running into a tough matchup against the Eagles (who have allowed only two tight ends to eclipse 50 yards, none since week six), he’ll draw a Rams team that has allowed back to back solid games and touchdowns to starting tight ends.
Weather
In seasonal leagues, I never tend to over think lineup decisions based on weather, but in DFS I am a little more cautious. The ideal is build optimal lineups, so I prefer my passing game  to be playing in close to optimal conditions. Cold weather is no big deal, but wind is. I tend to avoid wind that is close to 20 MPH and above. You don’t have to go crazy over it, but it’s something to keep in your back pocket.
In closing, let me reiterate this one more time, the important thing is to have fun with Daily Fantasy, you can make it whatever you want it to be for you. Mix and match your favorite plays with mine and enjoy the games.
My Lineups:
|
60K |
|
|
PLAYER |
PRICE |
|
Nick Foles |
9,000 |
|
Demarco Murray |
8,000 |
|
Ray Rice |
6,400 |
|
Calvin Johnson |
10,000 |
|
Keenan Allen |
6,500 |
|
Julian Edelman |
4,900 |
|
Ladarius Green |
5,200 |
|
Nick Novak |
5,000 |
|
Baltimore DST |
5,000 |
|
55K |
|
|
PLAYER |
PRICE |
|
Josh McCown |
7,200 |
|
Demarco Murray |
8,000 |
|
Bobby Rainey |
5,800 |
|
Alshon Jeffery |
7,800 |
|
Keenan Allen |
6,500 |
|
Julian Edelman |
4,900 |
|
Delanie Walker |
4,800 |
|
Nick Novak |
5,000 |
|
Baltimore DST |
5,000 |
Stats used were provided from ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com.
