In Fantasy Football Trust or Bust, we will focus on who we deem as trustworthy starts and pepper in a few sits for your Points Per Reception (PPR) leagues.
TRUST
Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton @ SD
Through five games a season ago, Wayne had 41 catches for 593 yards on a massive 70 targets. Andrew Luck hasn’t had to depend solely on Wayne this year, although he has posted a solid 28 receptions for 365 yards on 42 targets.
Hilton is second on the team in targets (35) despite playing fewer snaps than Darrius Heyward-Bey in every game except one. That hasn’t stopped him from making explosive plays in the passing game on a near weekly basis.
34.3 percent (12) of Hilton’s targets are on passes that thrown over 20 yards in the air, second only to Torrey Smith (36.7 percent). He’s hauled in five of those targets for 191 of his 342 yards.
San Diego has been extremely formidable against the run this year, but that is largely in part to them just being gauged by quarterbacks and receivers through the air. The Chargers are allowing 224 yards per game to wide receivers.
They have also allowed eleven receivers to reach double digits, with a pair of players from the opposition in every game. Four have reached 20 or more points as they have allowed 10 touchdowns passing. On those deep throws that Hilton has been so successful with, San Diego has allowed eight completions on such attempts over twenty yards to go with four touchdowns.
Alex Smith vs OAK
Smith has attempted at least 34 passes in every game this season and thrown multiple touchdowns in three different games. With his solid decision-making and reluctance to turn the ball over, his weekly floor is extremely steady. He’s also running more than ever in his career, running 33 times so far for 161 yards already, only 18 yards behind his career high of 179 rushing yards in 2011.
As XN Sports fantasy writer Sal Stefanile pointed out in the beginning of his Alex Smith experiment series, Smith could be the ultimate backup quarterback throughout the bye week season. This week is part of that if you’re a team that was depending on Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill.
Oakland is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete a league high 72.5 percent of their passes so far this season. They’ve allowed every quarterback other than Chad Henne to score more than 14 points, three to top 18 points and two to score over 24 points. Look for the unexciting, efficient Smith to put together a solid final line versus the young Raider defense.
Darren Sproles @ NE
Owners seem to be frustrated a bit with Sproles this season despite him being the 12th highest scoring back in PPR leagues. Although a large chunk of those (31.2) points came in one games versus Miami, he’s still topped double digits in three of his five games. Coming off of a game in which he only played 15 snaps, after playing over 30 snaps in each of the Saints first four weeks, he looks to get it going in Foxboro.
New England has allowed an opposing back to top 12 points in every game so far and three to top 14 points. They have also have let backs catch 25 balls out of the backfield so far. Look for Sean Payton to utilize Sproles in space as Bill Belichick attempts to take Jimmy Graham out of the game as best as he can.
Knowshon Moreno vs JAC
In our late round value article, we pointed out just how good of a buy Moreno was during drafts over the summer. He hasn’t disappointed at all thus far, topping 75 yards rushing, catching three or more passes and scoring a touchdown in three different games to start the season.
This week Denver hosts a Jacksonville team fresh off of surrendering 143 rushing yards to a Rams team that had only 122 total rushing yards in their three previous games combined. The Jaguars have scored just 51 points this season, constantly trailing in every game. That has helped contribute to teams attempting 32.6 attempts on the ground against them, most in the league. In a game that could get out of hand really early, John Fox and Peyton Manning could call off the dogs through the air and show mercy by grinding the Jags out.
Martellus Bennett vs NYG
Bennett is on his way to bucking a trend that tight ends don’t produce under Marc Trestman. Over his career as a play caller, Trestman tight ends have only averaged 34 receptions and 334 yards receiving, with only Brent Jones reached 50 receptions in a season. So far, Bennett already has 25 grabs for 281 yards and three touchdowns.
He’ll have to overcome the Thursday night curse this week, but the Giants are the right opponent to have. New York has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four games to start the season and every starting tight end to reach at least 47 yards receiving. Look for the Unicorn in the end zone on Thursday night.
BUST
Terrelle Pryor @ KC
Pryor has more fantasy points than Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. He also missed week four with a concussion. In what was assumed would originally be a throw away season in which the Raiders are eating $40 million in dead money, Oakland may have just found something that will bring a warm feeling to those in the Black Hole.
Pryor has finished in the top 12 of quarterback scoring in three of his four starts. He’s completed at least 62 percent of his passes in all four, throwing for 215 or more yards in three while adding 30 plus rushing yards in every start.
Continuing that level of play will be tested this Sunday as the Raiders head into Arrowhead to face a Chiefs team that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game (12.3 points per game). Kansas City is allowing only 197.8 passing yards per game, good for fourth best in the NFL. They also lead the league in sacks (21) and are tied for the league lead in turnovers with 15.
Eddie Lacy @ BAL
Returning to action from a week two concussion, Lacy carried 23 times for 99 yards this past Sunday versus Detroit. The threat of a timeshare from fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin never materialized as he fumbled away his chances of creating any type of committee going forward. Going forward, Lacy should provide solid running back two numbers.
Those numbers will have to come after this week as Green Bay will face a Ravens team that has allowed 65 rushing yards or fewer in three of their five games and over one hundred yards on the ground to only Buffalo (203). Since surrendering seven touchdowns in the opener, the Baltimore defense has only allowed three touchdowns since, only one on the ground. They’ve also only allowed two backs to reach double digits points, with a season high of only 14.7 PPR points.
Trent Richardson @ SD
In the three games since acquiring his services for a first round pick, Richardson has totaled just 151 yards on 51 carries (2.9 yards per carry) to go with a pair of scores. To put that pedestrian average into perspective, backup Donald Brown has 127 yards on only 12 carries over the same three games. With the trade to Indy, Richardson also has yet to be involved in the passing game, catching only one pass so far.
This week he’ll draw a Chargers defense that has yet to allow an opposing back to rush for a touchdown in any of their five games. They’ve allowed only one back, Chris Johnson (90 yards) to top 60 yards on the ground so far and only LeSean McCoy has reached double digits scoring.
DeSean Jackson @ TB
Jackson is loving life under Chip Kelly so far. He ranks third in the league with 525 receiving yards and is currently the sixth highest scoring receiver in PPR leagues at 98.5 points (19.7 PPG). He’s gone over one hundred yards in three of five games while averaging 10.7 yards per target.
With Nick Foles taking over for injured Mike Vick this week, the Eagles should run a more efficient offense, but Jackson us unlikely to be a large part of the action. Tampa is allowing only 129.8 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, with only Michael Floyd topping 68 yards in any single game.
Even if the Eagles scheme to have Jackson run more routes from the slot (he’s running 28.7 percent of his routes this year from the slot per Pro Football Focus) in an effort to avoid Darrelle Revis, he’ll still draw a tough Leonard Johnson inside. Johnson has allowed only eight receptions on 112 snaps while covering slot receivers so far.
Full Disclosure Week 5
|
TRUST |
PTS |
RESULT |
|
Sam Bradford |
21.28 |
QB6 |
|
Danny Woodhead |
20.1 |
RB8 |
|
Ryan Mathews |
0.8 |
N/A |
|
Hakeem Nicks |
23.2 |
WR9 |
|
Greg Olsen |
12.9 |
TE11 |
|
BUST |
||
|
Andrew Luck |
18.06 |
QB12 |
|
CJ Spiller |
12.6 |
RB17 |
|
DeAngelo Williams |
8.9 |
RB28 |
|
Anquan Boldin |
4.1 |
WR70 |
|
SEASON RESULTS |
W |
L |
|
TRUST |
16 |
12 |
|
BUST |
12 |
7 |
*Stats used were provided from ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com.
