Over the last two weeks, we have featured the hitters and pitchers most likely to drop off from their current pace. Like prolonged second-half slumps, countless players experience the opposite – an out-of-nowhere offensive explosion with double-digit homer months and multi-week hitting streaks. You can’t always predict where it’ll strike, but I’m certainly going to try. Let’s take a look at the most likely second-half turnarounds.
Giancarlo Stanton: .261/.349/.470, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 15 R, seven 2B
Many worried that Stanton’s production would be hurt by playing in the worst lineup in the league. The problem with that logic is he played on the 29th worst offense in 2012 and still came away with a .290/.361/.608 line with 37 HR, 87 RBI, 75 R, 30 2B, and six SB in 123 games. As it turned out, the biggest problem with drafting him wouldn’t be the production, it’d be the long-term hamstring injury that cost him 36 games.
He’s back now and seems fully recovered since he owns a .305/.359/.576 line with four homers, 11 RBI, seven runs, and four doubles. He missed around the same amount of games last season as he has already this season so if you can live with a guy who bats .260-.280 with 30+ HR and 80+ RBI I don’t think that this season’s Giancarlo will finish that much worse than last year’s Giancarlo.
Fearless Prediction: .270, 32 HR, 84 RBI, 68 R
Aramis Ramirez: .280/.360/.439, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 20 R, 10 2B
Ramirez hasn’t been struggling but his numbers are definitely at a lower rate than we are used to and he’s been slowed by injury. He’s 35 and a 16-vet but I don’t think a decline is what we’re seeing. Especially since he did this last season in his first year with Milwaukee. After batting .272 with 10 homers through the first half, Ramirez batted .331 with 17 homers in the second half. Over his entire career, he owns a .277/.338/.477 line in first-halves and a considerably better .295/.351/.531 line in second-halves. This year should go any differently than the others.
Fearless Prediction: .295, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 73 R
Billy Butler: .272/.380/.393, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 23 R, 16 2B
Butler has driven in 41 but his other numbers are considerably lower than where they should be. The home runs are definitely disappointing since he hit 29 last season. I don’t think he’s a guy who was ever going to do that consistently, putting up 11 HR, 21 HR, 15 HR, and 19 HR in the previous four seasons. That doesn’t mean he won’t put up a bunch in the second half.
Let’s forget last year’s outlier year and look at a more realistic, 2011 Billy Butler. That Butler put up just six dingers and 38 RBI over his first 89 games. Over his next 70, he blasted 13 HR and drove home 57 RBI. Over his entire career, his average is 20 points higher in second halves (.309 to .289) and his home run and RBI rate follows. I think that happens again this season.
Fearless Prediction: .291, 19 HR, 97 RBI, 70 R
Rickie Weeks: .236/.331/.400, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 32 R, 4 SB
Even for a chronically disappointing player, Weeks’ 2013 has been somewhat of a bust thus far. Even with a fairly hot June, he has failed to surpass the 20 RBI mark in 68 games. Where have we seen this Rickie Weeks before? Oh, right, last season when he batted just .199 with eight homers, 29 RBI, and 34 runs through his first 81 games and followed up by batting .261 with 13 HR, 34 RBI, and 51 R over his next 76. The speed may come back too, he had just six steals through the first half last year and put up 10 in the second.
Weeks is already well on his way to building a solid season, batting .373 with five homers, nine runs driven in, 12 runs, and 11 XBH in his last 24 games.
Fearless Prediction: .245, 19 HR, 61 RBI, 78 R, 12 SB
Ike Davis: .161/.242/.258, five HR, 16 RBI, 16 R
Davis is by far the worst on this list but I think he still has a chance to put up as many homers as Giancarlo in the second-half. He didn’t get sent down last season, which hurts him this year because he seems to have already gotten it going with a 1.093 OPS, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R, and 5 2B in 15 games since being sent down. Had he put that up in the Majors, he’d have almost identical numbers to last year’s first half Ike Davis who batted .201 with 12 HR and followed it up with a .255 second half that saw him launch 20 homers in 75 games.
Can he do it again this season? He certainly has the talent with a solid .252 BA and 58 HR through his first 339 MLB games.
Fearless Prediction: .190, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 59 R
