With the NFL Draft having wrapped up this weekend, I thought it would be interesting to see what impact, if any, the draft had on the MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL) Average Draft Position (ADP) data for quarterbacks.
Last week saw the debut installment of my Sports Jerks’ ‘Top 30 ADP in 2-QB Leagues’ series, and the NFL Draft gives us a chance to continue on with the series.
Below you’ll see what the MFL ADP data for the quarterback position on April 21st and April 28th looks like, and we can then compare the two to see if we can use it as part of our 2-QB fantasy football draft preparations.
For the most part, quarterback ADP at MFL remained relatively constant, with the first 27 spots occupied by the same quarterbacks from the previous week.
The first change involves new Buffalo Bills first round draft selection E.J. Manuel. Although Manuel was the first quarterback taken in the 2013 NFL Draft, he isn’t the first rookie quarterback to appear in the quarterback ADP for April 28; that distinction belongs to Geno Smith. However, Manuel is the first quarterback to move up in the ‘Top 30 ADP’, he as jumped up two spots, from 30th to 28th.
In 12-team 2-QB fantasy football leagues, Manuel is still being drafted as a QB3, which he should be, unless he’s named the Bills’ 2013 opening week starter, but he’s moving closer to fringe QB2 range. It’ll be hard to leapfrog the likes of Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Jake Locker and Matt Schaub, into QB2 range, but in a league where the youth revolt is in full swing, and fantasy footballers are always looking to jump on the next big thing, Manuel could eventually make a case for QB2 status.
With Manuel moving up two spots, Christian Ponder and Brandon Weeden each slipped one spot, moving further down the QB3 ranks.
The only other difference in the two ADP results, aside from Manuel’s move up, was that both Tyler Wilson and Dennis Dixon fell into undrafted territory.
I understand Dixon’s fall. Matt Barkley’s addition to the Eagles quarterback harem that Head Coach Chip Kelly is surrounding himself with makes it seem that Dixon will eventually be the odd man out. If the Eagles were looking to trade one of their quarterbacks, Nick Foles would probably garner the most interest and value, which would mean Dixon would still have a spot on the team. But, for now, Michael Vick, Foles, Barkley, and Dixon, are in some sort of four-way quarterback battle royale.
Wilson tumbling into undrafted ADP territory surprises me though. Being drafted by the Oakland Raiders, Wilson only has to worry about competing against Matt Flynn and Terrelle Pryor, neither which are proven commodities in the NFL. If reports indicating that the Raiders were ready to draft Matt Barkley in the fourth round are true, before the Eagles moved up ahead of them to draft Barkley themselves, then you know the Raiders can’t be all that convinced about the pro prospects of Flynn and Pryor.
Wilson might not amount to much but if Nassib has an ADP of QB33, and he’ll be Eli Manning’s back-up, without any hope to play, unless Eli gets injured, then Wilson should still be a draft consideration in 2-QB fantasy football leagues.
Of course, the MFL ADP is skewed towards 1-QB fantasy football leagues, so that could have something to with it. We should also remember that the April 28th ADP data is a day removed from the completion of the NFL Draft, meaning the next ADP numbers might shed some better insight in regards to quarterback ADP.
