The NBA 2013 Playoffs are still not locked in place, and with everyday developments like Kenneth Faried’s injury in Denver and Stephen Jackson’s cutting loose in San Antonio there seems to be too many moving parts to make an accurate assessment of things to come. But the recent string of occurrences have only cemented pre-season expectations, and, in a society of instant rewards, why wait till June to have some fun making predictions?
There’s also the bonus that Sports Jerks possesses sports knowledge that’s a cut above the rest. So, without further ado, here are predictions for the winners of the NBA Finals 2013.
Denver Nuggets: 3%
Denver should be, and were, higher on this list before Father Injury (he doesn’t get the respect Father Time does in the league but is every bit as troublesome) decided to pay them a visit. At a point in the season, I had them running away, almost literally, with the Western Conference Championship. But a hobbled Ty Lawson, the loss of Danilo Gallinari, and Faried’s latest ankle roll will do them in.
Part of me, exactly 3%, still hopes they can pull off a Cinderella disruption come playoff time, but their genetic makeup has been altered. Their strength was in their ability to suffocate you with Denver’s elevation, relentless speed, and, most importantly, a Swiss Army knife assortment of tools. Without their swarm mentality, they’ll still give any team in the West nightmares, but not the boot.
San Antonio Spurs: 5%
That loss to the Lakers doesn’t spell good things for SA. Somewhere in my basketball gut I still think Timmy has one more chip to his name, but they’re showing more wear than is comforting and at a much earlier point than last year. With Lob City, a perpetual matchup problem in Memphis, the Nuggets who play on skates, and an OKC team, that even without Harden, is playing better than last year, the Spurs’ age is a major handicap.
Sacking Stephen Jackson right before the postseason also makes no sense.
New York Knicks: 5%
You live and die by the three. But, like the Spurs, the Knicks might die by their aging personnel. ‘Melo, though heavily flawed, has at least one championship run in him, and this year might be as good as any for it to happen. With some height, enough physicality, and two potent offensive weapons, the Knicks can steal Miami’s ECF crown, but they probably won’t.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 10%
As long as Russell Westbrook continues to shoot more than one of the most elite offensive machines in the history of the game, OKC will have trouble landing some hardware. As of this posting, Westbrook is averaging 18.9 FGA, or a little more than one field-goal attempt than Durant (at 17.7 FGA) per game. The difference in records isn’t all that revealing when Russell takes more than 19 shots per game Oklahoma is 26-16 and when Durant goes for more than 18 shots OKC is 26-14, but there’s so justifying being 3rd in the LEAGUE for field-goal attempts.
More revealing is that when Kevin Martin, who clocks in as 104th for FGA, goes for more 11 shots per game, OKC’s record is 27-5.
They remain real threats, but have too many nagging issues that have yet to be resolved to bring a trophy to Oklahoma.
Miami Heat: 77%
There’s this long running myth that you can’t possibly maintain your journalistic integrity when covering sports, if you don’t remain absolutely objection. Take me and the Heat. I despise them for what they are, and what they represent in a sometimes watered-down, all too pillowy, and diva-pandering league, but they play some damn good basketball. They won it all last year, and as the 27-game win streak proved, they’ve only gotten better.
LeBron is playing some highly efficient b-ball, and with Dwyane Wade―in my book, a top-five shooting guard of all time―at the wing, they becomes unstoppable. Add to it some hardy, defensive-minded role players who can shoot lights out, and it’s hard not to just give them the Larry O’Brien now. Of course, that’s where the beauty of sports lies, in that remaining 23% chance that some other team might pull off a huge upset. just look at the 2004 Detroit Pistons.
But Pat Riley, in an age of GMOs, has genetically engineered a team that is more talented than any team Jordan played on.
