One of the trades that got in just under the deadline was one completed by the Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres. Gone from the Sabres is “The Mayor of Pominville”, RW Jason Pominville, plus a fourth round pick next year, in exchange for prospect C Johan Larsson, back-up/prospect goaltender Matt Hackett, a first round pick this year and a second round pick next year.
This is a pretty good hockey trade. Pominville has another year after this one in his current contract so it’s not exactly a rental. This should help Minnesota if their Stanley Cup quest for the foreseeable future. Larsson and Hackett are both good prospects who should be NHL regulars.
But the only player of real fantasy impact for this season is Pominville.
Background Information
Pominville has been an underrated fantasy asset pretty much his whole career. He has consistently put up 20+ goals for six years now, with 30+ goals in two of those. Also in those six seasons, he’s put up at least 30 assists with at least 40 assists in three of those. Finally, in any season he’s played at least 75 games, he’s put up at least 60 points. When you factor in he consistently takes over 210 shots and even chips in some PIMs and power-play points, you have a solid overall fantasy player year after year.
Durability is another huge factor. There is nothing that can derail any fantasy team faster than injuries. Pominville has played all 82 games in five of those last six seasons, while still managing 73 in that sixth season (2010-2011).
There are always concerns, of course. He doesn’t take a lot of PIMs, not having hit the 30 PIMs mark since 2006-2007. His plus/minus has been a concern the last few years with Buffalo not being as good as they were earlier in his career. After being a combined (+41) in his first two full years, he’s just (+4) combined since.
Buffalo has not been a good possession team this year. In fact, at the start of the month, Buffalo had the worst possession rating of any team in the NHL when the game is within a goal in the first or second period or tied in the third/OT (called Fenwick Close). This has led to every player on Buffalo except Marcus Foligno and Christian Ehrhoff to have a negative On-Ice Corsi rating. Not surprisingly, Pominville’s On-Ice Corsi is (-9.03).
You have to give this to Pominville this year, however. His On-Ice SH% is 11.41, second-best on his team (just behind Thomas Vanek). This means Buffalo’s offensive efficiency when playing at even-strength is best when one of these two are on the ice (along with Cody Hodgson). In fact, Pominville is 26th in the entire NHL among forwards with 30 games played, just behind Jonathan Toews. This is pretty good company.
Fantasy Impact
With Dany Heatley missing possibly significant time and Matt Cullen missing time as well, there is a need for scoring in Minnesota. Pominville should provide exactly that.
The question when a player is acquired is what line he will land on. We saw the impact that Ryane Clowe had last night when landing on the “top” line in New York (two goals and an assist).
With Heatley now out, it will be interesting to see if Pominville lands on the Koivu/Parise line. They need a scoring right winger and The Mayor is exactly that. If he can land on that line, Pominville owners have struck fantasy gold. Those two combined for 35 points in the month of March and combined with Pominville, they could form one of the formidable top lines in hockey.
Recently, though, Dany Heatley’s spot has been on the second power-play unit, away from Koivu and Parise. If Pominville just fills in his spot, his total value will be limited a bit from what it could be.
Until we see where he lands (and we should find out tonight as they visit the Kings), we won’t really know what Pominville’s true value will be. But if he can land on that top line and squeeze Kyle Brodziak away from the top power-play unit, Pominville owners are in for quite the reward for their patience this season. At a time when fantasy hockey playoffs are ramping up, Pominville may have just gone from a top-75(ish) fantasy forward so far this season to possibly a top-30 forward for the rest of the year.
