Fantasy Baseball Draft Preparation – Closers

By Jeff Boggis “The Sultan of Stats” For Fantasy Sports Empires

Introduction

Whether you are a fantasy baseball league expert or new to this game, everyone seems to have a different strategy when it comes to drafting closers. Some league managers, who may have been burned in previous years, may jump the gun and grab an elite closer, but at what cost?  Then we have the other end of the closer spectrum where league mangers don’t pay for saves and they are able to wait towards the end of their league draft and speculate on which closers may lose their job during the season and draft a handful of setup men that will assume the closer role.  In 2012, 63 percent of major league baseball teams replaced their closer at some point in the season. On average, at least 33 percent of closers that begin the season as the closer will lose their job at some point during the season. Do you grab elite closer to avoid having your closers lose their jobs, or do you draft setup men on the cheap in anticipation of closers losing their job sometime during the season?

Approach

My approach to drafting closers is as follows:

1. Determine how many saves it will take to compete in your league setup.
2. Determine who are the closers and setup men for each of the 30 major league teams.
3. Determine the average draft position and which rounds each of these closers and setup men are being drafted.
4. Label each closer/setup men with the following categories: Elite, Neutral, Caution
5. Project closer/setup men statistics for saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP
6. Include the sabermetric of K/9 or strikeouts per innings pitched

Findings

There are 30 major league teams. In a 10 team league, the average number of closers per team is three. In a 12 team league, the average number of closers per team is 2.5.  In a 12 team league, you can gain a competitive advantage by having a minimum of three closers on your team. Here is a chart of the expected number of fantasy points that you can expect to achieve based on the number of saves you obtain this season. The goal is to finish in the top three in saves in your league. In a 10 team league, your goal is to accumulate between 105 and 125 saves. In a 12 team league, your goal is to accumulate between 90 and 110 saves. Below is a chart that projects the number of fantasy points you will obtain versus the number of saves that you accumulate at the end of the season in both a 10 team and 12 team league formats. The numbers are the same, regardless if you play in a Yahoo, CBS Sports, or ESPN league format.

Using the stat projections (courtesy of ESPN), here is the current average draft position and round that each closer is currently being drafted.

The Elite Closer (4)

Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Motte, and Mariano Rivera

If you want to sleep easy at night and have peace of fantasy mind, you may want to draft one of these top closers that as elite and safe as they get. In the case of Mariano Rivera, last season proved that even elite closers can go down to injury. Kimbrel’s stats are as good as they get, especially when you think about the 12o strikeout projections. That is more than a typical number four or number five starting pitcher, but with a lower ERA and WHIP. But to draft Craig Kimbrel, you have to do this with a fifth round draft pick. You would have to pass on such players that are going around an ADP in round five such as Allen Craig, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips, Yu Darvish, and Adam Wainwright, just to name a few. And what happens if you are highly leveraged in Kimbrel and he becomes injured? Just ask Mariano Rivera owners last season. To land one of these elite closers, you will have to draft them somewhere between rounds 5-11.  Too rich for my drafting blood. The big head scratcher for me is fantasy league managers who are drafting Jonathan Papelbon in round eight. When you look at his K/9 and S/9, they are no better than closers that are going several rounds later. Plus his projected ERA is over 3.00 which is hardly elite status for a closer.

The Neutral Closers (14)

Rafael Soriano, Fernando Rodney, Joe Nathan, J.J. Putz, Sergio Romo, Jim Johnson, Huston, Street, John Axford, Greg Holland, Addison Reed, Tom Wilhelmsen, Rafael Betancourt, Glen Perkins, and Jonathan Broxton

I like to refer to this group as the “Goldilocks Closers” as they don’t cost you a high draft pick, they are not in danger of losing their closer role, and they are just right. They key is to draft at least two of these closers from this group as your set of base closers. These closers currently have an ADP between 128 and 214 which allows you to draft these set of closer anywhere between rounds 11-18. Not all of these neutral closers are the same, and here is where I like to use the sabermetric of K/9 and S/9 as my filter. Although Jim Johnson is a neutral closer, he does come with a lower K/9 rate than the other closers at 5.8. I would also avoid closers with projected ERAs in excess of 3.20 and a WHIP greater than 1.15. Of these set of closers, I would target Sergio Romo, Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, J.J. Putz and Rafael Soriano.

The Caution Closers (12)

 Joel Hanrahan, Jason Grilli, Chris Perez, Casey Janssen, Grant Balfour, Ryan Madson, Steve Cishek, Brandon League, Bruce Rondon, Carlos Marmol, Bobby Parnell, Jose Veras 

Whether it is an injury issue, a better setup man in waiting, or poor peripherals, if there were a group of closers I would draft with caution, this would be the list. The good thing is that you don’t have to spend a high draft pick to obtain any of these closers as they are currently being drafted between rounds 15-26. It’s not so much that closers like Joel Hanrahan are likely to keep their closer role for most of the season, it’s that he may rack up the saves, but at a greater cost. Hanrahan’s walk rate, home run rate, and ERA are all on the rise from last season. Hanrahan will most likely have an ERA north of 3.00 in 2013, where most closers on your opponent’s team will be far less. Luckily for Hanrahan owners who draft him, he benefits from little competition and will most likely keep the job for most of the season. Then there is a group of unproven and small sample size closers such as Jason Grilli, Steve Chishek, Bruce Rondon, Bobby Parnell, and Jose Veras. They could go on to have a stellar year at closer, but this is also highly unlikely as these closers will all be on a short leash.  Think of the mentality of closers and from a mental perspective, will these set of newer closers have the mental makeup to overcome a blown save and the pressure of being ready on a moment’s notice every day of a grueling season? I’m betting that they won’t, and this is why is make more sense to draft a top setup man versus a group of unproven closers that may end up on your waiver wire by May.  There are the injured closers such as Chris Perez, Casey Janssen, and Ryan Madson that may spend some time on and off the disabled list and may end up losing their closer role if their successor gets the hot hand in their absence. Then there is Carlos Marmol who is in a class by himself.  He never should have held on to the closer role for this long. His ERA will be closer to 4.00 this season and has an incredibly low 2.7 saves per nine innings pitched. Top it off with a 1.44 WHIP due to control issues and Marmol is the one closer I will be avoiding in all fantasy baseball league drafts.

The Elite Setup Men (5)

Kenley Jansen, Ernesto Frieri, Kyuji Fujikawa, Sergio Santos, Mark Melancon 

These are the players to target in your fantasy baseball league drafts. They come relatively inexpensive in auction league drafts and you can draft them fairly late in your serpentine drafts and they are currently going off the board between rounds 19-36.  Even if they don’t become closers, if you can draft at least two of these names, they offer better statistics than a number five starting pitcher. Their K/9 is between 10 and 15, with ERAs and WHIPs well below the closers mention as cautious. I believe through either injury or performance, these setup men will have an opportunity to be closers sometime during the 2013 season. In the meantime, they will contribute in obtaining vulture wins and strikeouts per innings pitched, while helping lower your team’s overall ERA and WHIP.

And let’s not forget prominent free agents which include Brian Wilson, Jose Valverde, Francisco Rodriguez, and Francisco Cordero that could sign with a team in need of a closer.

Happy closer drafting everyone!

XN Sports

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