Memorial Day Weekend does little to mess with the typical Sunday schedule, as all teams except the Dodgers and Mets will play in the afternoon. With Clayton Kershaw on the mound and a game in Colorado this afternoon, prices are elevated, however, they exist on separate slates.
Currently, we are using xFIP and wOBA simply to compare one pitcher’s performance against another – especially against opposite-handed hitters. We aren’t using these numbers for calculation. To help with some calculations, we have assumed that each hitter and pitcher has played at least one game. Each pitcher was assigned an innings total relative to his average projection.
Check the starting lineups and weather reports prior to making any plays, as these change without notice.
Projected Low-Scoring Games
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets – The Dodgers’ starting pitcher for Sunday night’s nationally-televised game needs no introduction. The great Clayton Kershaw will take the mound against a Mets team that he shut out a few weeks ago. Expecting Kershaw to repeat his performance is dangerous – especially since Los Angeles’ ‘ace’ is coming off his third shutout in his last five starts – but he as close to a guarantee as it gets. Bartolo Colon should benefit from the low-scoring contest, and the Mets’ right-handed pitcher has allowed more than three earned runs in a start only once, this season.
Targets: Clayton Kershaw and Bartolo Colon
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels – Nicholas Tropeano’s stellar 2016 campaign continued in his last start, where he held the Rangers scoreless in their own hitter-friendly ballpark. Now, Tropeano gets to host the strikeout-prone Astros in his pitcher’s park. Doug Fister should contribute to a relative pitcher’s duel, as he has limited opponents to no more than three earned runs in any game since his second start of the year. Fister won’t provide high strikeout totals, but both pitchers should deliver a nice fantasy output on Sunday.
Targets: Nicholas Tropeano, then Doug Fister
Projected High-Scoring Games
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies – Surprise, surprise. A game in Colorado is projected to produce runs. Saturday was a prime example of how avoiding hitters in a Rockies home game started by a top ‘ace’ is not always wise, and Sunday brings a relative step down in terms of pitching – from Madison Bumgarner to Johnny Cueto. The other side of the game presents a buying opportunity for San Francisco’s hitters, although the ten-run outburst from Saturday suggests a slight regression is in the works.
Targets: Colorado Rockies Hitters, then San Francisco Giants Hitters
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers – The Reds and Brewers have already experienced a few high-scoring affairs in their current series, but Sunday brings yet another potential outburst for hitters. Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson is currently pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA, but experienced his worst outing of the season against the Reds. Cincinnati’s offense has been so poor that Brandon Finnegan hardly gets enough run support to secure a win – he has allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his last six starts – and he remains likely to yield enough runs to warrant the use of Milwaukee’s hitters sparingly.
Targets: Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers Hitters
Undervalued Plays
Rich Hill – Strikeouts are the name of the game in daily fantasy baseball, and Rich Hill thrives in that department. In fact, of all the starting pitchers on Sunday, Hill ranks fifth in strikeout rate. The Tigers are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league, makine Hill’s potential exceptionally high.
Drew Pomeranz – Like the aforementioned Tropeano, Drew Pomeranz in the middle of a breakout campaign. The Padres’ southpaw has allowed three total earned runs in his five May starts, and he has four games throughout the year in which he has his opponent scoreless. After the Diamondbacks broke through for eight runs on Saturday, a return to earth will benefit Pomeranz.
feature image credit: By Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
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