While the length and quality of player’s celebratory dance moves unfortunately does not accumulate fantasy points on DraftKings (Cam Newton would be a weekly auto-play), PlayerProfiler and XN Sports are spinning stats and sliding you new value plays on DraftKings for week 11 of the NFL season.
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The following players are noteworthy value plays who could either serve as the cornerstones of an optimal cash lineup or add upside variance to a GPP/tournament roster, or both.
The No-Brainer
Charcandrick West, $4,500
Points Per Game: 9.90
As premium running back talents like Jamaal Charles have fallen to injury or simply underperformed, the pool of consistent weekly RB1s has been reduced to a retreating roadside puddle. Charles’ teammate Charcandrick West, however, has been one of the few exceptions. Over the last three weeks, West’s RB Opportunity Share (carries plus targets) has been as-follows:
- Week 10: 93.1-percent
- Week 8: 81.2-percent
- Week 7: 90.0-percent
During that stretch, West has posted five more red zone touches and five or more pass targets and converted all-purpose volume into 20-plus weekly fantasy points going back to week 7 of the NFL season.
In week 11, Charcandrick West faces San Diego’s rush defense, which is allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs in the NFL (24.7 PPG). Still priced like a part-time player on DraftKings, West’s ownership percentage may reach a DK all-time high this week.
The Late Boomer
Lamar Miller, $6,200
Points Per Game: 18.3
Lamar Miller is averaging 3 touchdowns per game as well as 6 receptions per game over the last three contests. Perceived as a one-dimensional boom-bust RB for most of his career, Miller has been thrust into an all-purpose role just as Jay Ajayi re-entered the backfield and rekindled fears of a RB committee in Miami.
In reality, Miller’s RB Opportunity Share since Jay Ajayi was activated is as follows:
- Week 10: 77.4-percent
- Week 9: 79.2-percent
- Week 8: 66.7-percent
Clamoring by Ajayi enthusiasts should mute Lamar Miller’s ownership percentage on DraftKings in week 11. Miller will be an ideal play in both tournament and cash games facing a Dallas defense allowing 22.9 (top-5) PPR points to fantasy running backs.
The Rock
Eric Decker, $5,800
Points Per Game: 18.30
Eric Decker is the most consistent wide receiver in the NFL evidenced by his 4.0 weekly production volatility (ranked No. 120 among fantasy wide receivers). Though technically Decker operates as the Jets’ No. 2 receiver, he has posted fantasy WR1 or WR2 numbers in all but one game this season. This consistent production is propelled by a 25-percent Target Share and a +45-percent Target Premium on PlayerProfiler.com.
The Jets do not have a running back or tight end of consequence in the passing game. This opportunity vacuum creates dual-target hog situation as Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall account for approximate 60-percent of team passing targets, an astonishingly high number.
A cash game stalwart for most of the season, Eric Decker should be a fixture in all DraftKings contests this week facing a Houston pass defense that has already allowed double-digit touchdowns to NFL wide receivers in 2015.
The Target Heir
Danny Amendola, $4,000
Points Per Game: 10.70
Danny Amendola is best comparable player on PlayerProfiler.com is Wes Welker. Wes Welker, who once secured 122 receptions for 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns in a single-season as Tom Brady’s go-to receiver. Neither Amendola nor Welker are nearly as athletic as Julian Edelman, who was just lost for the regular season with a broken foot, but playing the high volume Welker slot role will nonetheless ensure that Amendola receives 10-plus targets per game moving forward.
Danny Amendola’s target hog days have already begun. Amendola received 11 targets in week 10, many after Edelman left the game, and converted them into 10 receptions. Amendola has been catching everything this season — his 83.3-percent catch rate is No. 1 in the NFL. Danny Amendola’s fantasy potential in 2015 is represented by the following equation: volume + efficiency = fantasy points.
In week 11, New England faces a Bills secondary that allows 39.9 (No. 6) fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Like Eric Decker, Danny Amendola should appear on a relatively high percentage of DraftKings rosters this week.
May the game flow be ever in your favor.
Photo Credit: Jeffrey Beall/Flickr C.C. 2.0
