Half of the season over, more than that percentage of the fantasy year, with playoffs beginning in just 4 weeks. Let’s not waste time and get some action this week with some money making plays.
Vanilla Chalk(Obvious/Cash Game)
($6,900) Philip Rivers vs CHI – Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: -4
Can you tell me a reason to not return to the well? Has it been poisoned while I was gone? Week after week this guy is producing. He is averaging 26.2 fantasy points and faces the defense allowing the 6th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this week. The Bears surrender the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
($4,700) Antonio Gates vs CHI– Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: -4
With Keenan Allen sidelined for weeks with a kidney injury, Gates is a shoo-in for chalk tight end play of the week vs Chicago. His ominous voluminous targets coupled with the Bears secondary weaknesses makes him a quality play at a competitive price.
($3,000) Denver Broncos @ IND – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 26 Spread: -4
Andrew Luck turns the ball over. He has done so with 12 interceptions through 6 games and 1 lost fumble. Denver is a great bet for a defensive touchdown this week and a multitude of sacks.
($6,900) Todd Gurley @ MIN – Over/Under: 40 Team Total: 18.75 Spread: -2.5
It’s pretty hard to fade the Gurley man at this point. He is supplanting Mr. Freeman as the number one fantasy back one week at a time. His price now shows this as he is $100 more than Freeman this week. Minnesota is a middling rushing match up in terms of yards allowed, but Gurley is nearly match up proof at this point. He has 88 carries total in his last 4 games and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
($8,500) Tom Brady vs WAS– Over/Under: 52 Team Total: 33 Spread: -14
You almost have to look at Tom Brady as a cash game play every week with his lowest fantasy output of the season being 20.7 and averaging 30.6. I like him especially well this week vs the weak secondary of the Redskins who have started to be exposed of late giving up 2 passing touchdowns in each of the past two games. Two touch downs is the floor for Brady.
($9,300) Julio Jones @ SF – Over/Under: 45 Team Total: 24.75 Spread: -4.5
($/$) – Over/Under: Team Total: Spread:
Julio Jones has taken DeAndre Hopkin’s spot as the number one fantasy wide receiver through eight weeks. He is averaging 20 fantasy points and 12.75 targets per game and faces the 49er defense allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game and the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers. He is my top receiver play of the week.
Confident Calls
($8,000) Devonta Freeman @ SF– Over/Under: 45 Team Total: 24.75 Spread: -4.5
Don’t forget about Freeman. I believe many will this week. The 49ers allow the seventh most fantasy points to half backs and are a bottom 10 defense in terms of yards allowed on the ground per game at 123.75.
($5,500) DeAngelo Williams– Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 26.3 Spread: -4.5
Now that the Bell has been rung and cracked, it tolls for DeAngelo Williams. He will fill the every down role and has produced handily in that role when needed, compiling 42.9 FanDuel points in the first two games of the season during Bells suspension. He will be very highly owned.
($6,900) Eli Manning @ TB – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 25.25 Spread: -2.5
I recommended Eli here last week and that went incredibly well, especially at his comparative price point. He is still the lowest priced quarterback that I feel comfortable rolling with in FanDuel cash games even though his price is up $500 from last week. Tampa bay allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
($8,800)Odell Beckham Jr.@ TB – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 25.25 Spread: -2.5
We saw Beckham explode last week for 3 touch downs, finally bursting out of his slow stretch. I hope you had some exposure last week because it went very well and now that he is healthy, there is no reason to not go right back to him this week. The nice thing about Beckham is the lack of other targets around him. You know if the Giants offense is producing, it is being channeled through OBJ.
Indiana Jones(GPP Play)
($4,800) LeGarrette Blount @ WAS – Over/Under: 52 Team Total: 30 Spread: -14
With a 14 point spread favoring the Pats, the tea leaves have sharpie markings which when deciphered read Blount game. I don’t think they’re suggesting to get high and watch, so throw Blount in your lineups with confidence. He will be killing the clock vs a recently exposed Washington front allowing lines of 171 all purpose yards to Doug Martin, 196 yards and a touchdown to Chris Ivory, and 197 and a touch down to Davonta Freeman. LeGarrette Blount profiles similarly to these backs and should have a field day in a high volume role.
($6,500) Mark Ingram vs TEN – Over/Under: 47.5 Team Total: 27.75 Spread: -8
I haven’t been high on Ingrsm since Khiry Robinson has been stealing goal line carries from him, but Khiry has a broken right tibia will be on the shelf the rest of the season. I love Ingram getting the red zone carries with the team total of 27.75, third highest this week. It helps the Titans are allowing the 12th most rushing yards per game at 118.7
($6,800)Mike Evans vs NYG – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 25.25 Spread: 2.5
I am going straight back to the stove of Evans after being burned on a bad fantasy week where he had double digit targets in a good match up and didn’t produce. This is after he ruined a ton of great lineups. I guarantee you the majority of DFSers will see his lack of production in a perfect situation and look past him this week leading to him being vastly under owned. With all the good play boxes checked off again this week with an even better match up with the Giants who just allowed 7 touch down passes to Drew Brees. I will have a ton of shares. Vincent Jackson is looking like he won’t go this week again so the targets will be there. Incredible tournament play.
($4,000) Jeremy Langford @ SD – Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 22.75 Spread: 4
Matt Forte has been bit by the injury bug with an MCL tweak and will not play this week. The Bears coaching staff is high on Langford and he will get the first chance at being the workhorse back. He had the fastest 40 time among running backs at 4.42 in the 2015 draft and has soft hands. He succeeded LeVeon Bell at Michigan and has a ton of upside.
($3,200) Brandon LaFell vs WAS – Over/Under: 52 Team Total: 30 Spread: -14
LaFell makes an excellent tournament play this week seeing 8 and 7 targets the last two weeks. If there was one guy I thought would be on the winning milly maker team this week it would be LaFell. Washington surrenders the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Recently the Redskins allowed big games of 8-164-1 to Mike Evans and 7-111-1 to Brandon Marshall.
lines as of 11.3.15
Photo Credit:By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
