Dan Bailey was featured in this space two weeks ago, as the Cowboys were set to face off against the 49ers in what Vegas projected to be Week 1’s second highest scoring game. Bailey notched five fantasy points, a total he would triple in Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans.
I blame Tony Romo, quite frankly.
Our Week 2 streaming kicker choices fared OK, with one of them — Dan Carpenter — outscoring all kickers with 17 points against the Dolphins. Brandon McManus scored six measly fantasy points while Ryan Succop fell victim to Jake Locker‘s horrid performance and scored four points against Dallas.
A quick reminder for you streaming kicker adherents: rather than emphasizing opponents’ red zone stop rate — their propensity for forcing field goal attempts inside the 20-yard line — we’re going to focus on kickers on teams favored to win. Kicker fantasy production is closely correlated to quarterback success too, so that will remain a key factor in determining who makes it into this space every week.
Let’s get into Week 3 kickers.
Nick Folk (NYJ) vs. Chicago Bears
I think Folk’s Week 3 prospects — like those of Geno Smith — will be closely tethered to Eric Decker‘s availability in Monday night’s showdown against the Bears, who have allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to kickers through two weeks.
The Jets are favored in this one, but without Decker, Gang Green’s offense is a terrifying question mark. The Bears’ defense has allowed red zone touchdowns in 44 percent of opponents’ red zone possessions so far this season — the seventh best mark. Folk is available in more than 90 percent of leagues. Go get him.
Dan Carpenter (BUF) vs. San Diego Chargers
There’s one thing that scares me about Carpenter’s Week 3 prospects: he plays a Chargers’ team that has yet to stop an opponent from scoring a touchdown in the red zone. That’s remarkable, and a clear red flag…
Carpenter still has this going for him: the Bills are limited in the red zone, as they’ve proven unwilling to throw there (and everywhere). The Bills have passed on just 42 percent of their offensive snaps through two weeks. Only Houston has passed less frequently. Carpenter is 8-for-9 on field goal attempts this season and makes for a nice Week 3 option.
He’s somehow available on 80 percent of waiver wires.
Nick Novak (SD) at Buffalo Bills
Philip Rivers shouldn’t have much of a problem moving the ball down the field against a mediocre Buffalo secondary and San Diego head coach Mike McCoy famously hates scoring touchdowns as he’s determined to win Super Bowls with field goals — the way God intended.
Novak — who has 19 points through two weeks — is fresh off a 14-point outing against Seattle. Buffalo is allowing 8.4 schedule-adjusted points to kickers so far, making Novak a more-than-solid option in Week 3.
