Fantasy Football: Updated Running Back Equity Scores

Markets over-correct when enough people are stung by the failure of what was once consensus. It happens on Wall Street and in fantasy football.

That over-correction is quite a natural reaction: People invest in something that seems to be a hot commodity — a running back-running back start to a fantasy draft, say — and when that approach implodes, they run away, screaming and crying and seeking a new investment strategy.

The consensus, heading into 2013 fantasy drafts, was to secure two elite runners in the opening rounds and take advantage of what was deemed as never-before-seen receiver depth in rounds 3-6. Workhorse backs were a dying breed, the argument went, so get them while you can.

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Fantasy owners by mid-season were swearing off the running back-heavy approach as guys like Trent Richardson, Ray Rice, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, and Steven Jackson tanked in the early going and proved to be two-ton anchors around the necks of their investors.

The market over-correction was as predictable as a Darren McFadden injury. Fantasy owners have turned sharply against the once (mostly) unquestioned RB-RB approach and have begun investing their first few picks in the NFL’s elite receivers and tight ends. See below for proof.

That’s a pretty sharp change in consensus. There were 27 runners drafted in the first four rounds of 2013 drafts, while just 21 backs are going in the first four rounds this summer. The first round running back spread is particularly stark from year to year, as runners were the only game in First Round Town just one year ago.

It’s in this light of over-correction that we consider the relative value of running backs headed into the 2014 season. We know that fantasy owners, as a whole, have changed their early-round ways after their 2013 strategy ended with blood on the streets.

Which reminds me: “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

Those who wait until the fifth or sixth round to snag their first back would do well to remember that, historically, guys drafted in the RB31-36 range have a zero percent chance of notching top-12 numbers, and only a 20 percent chance of finishing inside the top-24 backs. That same group only has a one in four shot of posting top-36 fantasy numbers.

Below are updated equity scores for the first 50 running backs off the draft board. These could change as the preseason begins and injuries alter depth charts and player prospects. Many of these scores will remain static over the next month, however.

I’ve assigned two equity scores to each player (according to Fantasy Football Calculator average draft positions): the median score, indicating a very conservative projection, and the high score, reflecting a guy’s top-end prospects. I used the RotoViz similarity score app as a baseline for every median and high projection, with tweaks where needed.

I hope this helps as another tool that could help zero in on the best draft day values while avoiding players with little to no equity.

• Regression is on its way for the entire Kansas City offense, and while Charles won’t be spared, my very conservative median projection shows that he can still be a top-4 runner. Charles’ high projection puts him within a few points of where he finished in 2013. Invest with confidence.

• As XN Sports colleague Rich Hribar has said, Peterson’s price never changes and the rope gets shorter with every passing season. There’s not much reason to believe that Peterson will transform into a PPR cheat code, though an increased role in Minnesota’s passing attack — if you can call it that — keeps his floor pretty high.

• Murray, who finished sixth among backs in 2013 despite missing two games, notched .49 fantasy points per opportunity — higher than guys like Forte, McCoy, and Lacy. He’s a force in the passing game; a fact that won’t escape new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who pledges some sort of commitment to the running game in 2014. “Things that were done last year in the running game with DeMarco, the running style that was created here is really a good fit,” Linehan said recently on 105.3 The Fan. “That’s going to be our strength, being able to lean on that running game a little bit more than they have in the past.”

• I’m generally fading the above group, with players like Spiller, Martin, and Bush posting median scores far too low to target. It’s hardly revolutionary, but this early in a draft is no time to swing for the fences and assume a player’s best-case scenario.

• San Diego general manager Tom Telesco has openly shot down the notion of a no holds barred committee running attack as Mathews comes off a season that saw him rack up more than 1,300 yards. Mathews led the NFL in touches on percentage of snaps played and rushing attempt percentage of snaps played, whereas Danny Woodhead‘s success was a product of game script gone awry. Mathews’ median score is as encouraging as his high score.

• Gerhart’s hip flexor issue, which will keep him out of the Jaguars’ first preseason game, is very much worth monitoring. Assuming health, I think Gerhart’s metrics, comparables, and situation are appealing enough to grab here. I’m certainly not the only one who believes Gerhart has top-12 running back potential.

• Bernard Pierce, who was downright dominant in limited opportunity during his 2012 rookie campaign, has reportedly outplayed Rice so far in Baltimore’s training camp. ESPN Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley charged that Pierce “has had the best transition to Kubiak’s stretch, zone-blocking runs” — a run-blocking system that has birthed more than a few fantasy superstars, and one with which Pierce is deeply familiar from his college career.

• Tate, even if he falls into a straight-up timeshare in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, could very well deliver on his draft day asking price. Not much of Tate’s upside is priced into his current ADP. I think that could change in the coming weeks.

• Bell notched a solid 1.1 fantasy points per touch in 2013. That’s not good — it’s great. New Detroit offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has said Bell and Bush will assume “split roles” in 2014. Bell averaged 13.7 touches per game last season — a number I don’t expect to change a whole lot this year. His high score admittedly leaves something to be desired.

• He’s three years away from collecting Social Security, but Fred Jackson — fantasy’s No. 11 running back in 2013 — is once again terribly under-drafted. I’m surprised his median prospects aren’t better, and I think his high equity score is on the conservative side. Jackson gets (almost) all the red zone carries in a run-heavy offense. Yes, please.

• SJax is already breaking down in Falcons’ training camp. These numbers are based on 16-game seasons, but I could hardly blame anyone who wants to bank on a runner with a million miles on his Nikes.

• Before you draft Woodhead, remember that while he was a top-12 PPR option in 2013, he was RB20 in standard scoring. Like Julian Edelman, Woodhead is a PPR-dependent player.

•  Williams is a fantastic value here, though it won’t last long. Within hours of Williams punching it in at the goal line in New York’s first preseason tilt, I saw Williams fly off the board in the eighth round. He was a final-round flier just hours earlier. He’s not going to catch passes, he’s going to score touchdowns, and he could see a reliable weekly workload in a Giants’ offense that is now without the retired David Wilson and the injured Peyton Hillis.

• Hill has ended up on almost every one of my mock draft benches so far this summer. Bengals beat writers expect the rookie to demand 10-15 touches every week; I don’t think it’s crazy to project Hill for 200 touches considering Benjarvus Green-Ellis got 220 totes in 2013. Hill’s high equity score makes me salivate.

• There’s no certainly at all that Michael would get a starter’s workload if Marshawn Lynch were to miss time. I see him as something close to a wasted pick, with fantasy owners letting their dynasty love spill over into re-draft leagues. I would draft Robert Turbin as a handcuff to Lynch, if you’re into that sort of thing.

C.D. Carter Fantasy Football Analyst

C.D. Carter is a reporter, author of zombie stories, writer for The Fake Football and XN Sports. Fantasy Sports Writers Association member. His work  has been featured in the New York Times.

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