Fantasy Football: Updated Wide Receiver Equity Scores

Preseason fantasy football values aren’t carved in make-believe stone until that final weekend before the madness begins: Week 1 kickoff, when all our best laid plans are put to the test.

But we live in an imperfect world with drafts scheduled weeks before that first real kickoff spins through the air. A lot will change between now and then — injuries, depth chart machinations — making picks today seem silly in the light of early September.

And because you’re set to embark on the construction of your various fake teams this coming weekend, I’m updating my fantasy equity scores over the next week. Equity scores, for a refresher, are designed to give us a better idea of a player’s fantasy floor and ceiling.

I’ve assigned two equity scores to each of the top-60 receivers (according to Fantasy Football Calculator average draft positions): the median score, indicating a very conservative projection, and the high score, reflecting a guy’s top-end prospects. I used the RotoViz similarity score app as a baseline for every median and high projection, with tweaks where needed.

Equity scores, I hope, can help us exploit inefficiencies in players’ ADPs as we approach the 2014 season.

If a guy’s median score puts him very near his current ADP, it means he’s been valued appropriately. If his median score is well beyond his current ADP, it means he’s being undervalued. Negative median scores should be taken as a big, waving red flag outside of the top-20 receivers.

High equity scores matter most for receivers outside the top-30 or so. I think it’s important — and sensible — to target guys with nice, high ceilings in the eighth, ninth, tenth rounds and beyond. Perhaps that’s not for everyone, but that’s how I approach those picks.

I’ve included commentary after each 10-player section below. I’ve indicated which receivers I’m targeting throughout.

• Nelson and Marshall serve as the anchors for my all-star equity score squad, with both pass catchers capable of finishing as a top-2 fantasy option in 2014. Remember: Nelson was fantasy’s second highest scoring receiver in 2011, behind only Calvin. He was WR7 before Aaron Rodgers went down to injury last season.

• The similarity score app hates Cobb, though I think he’s a guy who can thrive with massive target volume. The Packers, for the third straight offseason, are talking about Cobb as a 100-catch candidate, so I suppose he could blow through that high equity score if that came to pass.

• I find this group to be generally unappealing if you like value. I’ve offered four reasons to believe Patterson can exceed his ADP, along with eight reasons he won’t prove worth of  his draft day price. Garcon is a creature of volume who won’t see nearly as much of it come his way in Jay Gruden’s offense, and Welker’s median score reflects the natural regression Denver is likely to face in 2014 after essentially running up the score on the way to an historic 2013 campaign. Welker’s high score isn’t high enough for me to target him unless he fell to the WR19-20 range.

• Andre Johnson’s holdout, the dumpster fire that is the Texans, and the receiver’s old age is likely holding down his ADP. I would recommend taking advantage of this while you can. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a marked upgrade over Case Keenum, Houston could be forced to throw quite a bit this year, and Johnson is a shoe-in for 130 targets (he saw 176 targets last season). Crazily enough, he can be your WR3.

• The Floyd love is well reasoned, and in casual drafts, he can be drafted as your flex. That qualifies as a crime against your league mates in 19 states.

• Edelman’s equity scores reflect 16 games with Rob Gronkowski in the Patriots’ lineup. That may be a pie-in-the-sky scenario, but it’s what I’m working with as training camp reports say Gronk is running fine on that once-annihilated knee. With Gronkowski in the lineup last season, Edelman averaged five receptions for 80 yards. Without the hulking tight end, Edelman posted an average of 7.8 catches for 124 yards.

• I’m ending up with Torrey Smith in almost every draft due in part to Rich Hribar’s convincing case for Smith as a guy who could go bonkers in Gary Kubiak‘s offensive system, which gives No. 1 receivers ample opportunity to do football things. I view Smith as a very high-end WR2 at a WR3 price.

• I think you should stand up and cheer when your league mate invests in Watkins at his going price. Clap politely, sit down, and draft someone who can reasonably exceed their cost.

• I’m targeting Bowe and letting someone else draft Williams. Does that mean I think Bowe will outscore Dallas’ No. 2 receiver by a boatload? Well, no, but Bowe is going two rounds after Williams and has a much higher ceiling. Regression could be Bowe’s best friend in 2014, as Kansas City won’t be able to sit on giant leads for three quarters and the offense will have to ease on the gas here and there. Plus, Bowe will be a lot less fat headed into 2014.

• I think it’s a tad on the lazy side to say Cooks will simply take on the Sprolesian role in the New Orleans offensive machine, but Sproles’ departure from the Saints leaves about 100 targets (Sproles saw 107 targets in 2011 and 93 targets in 2012) up for grabs. Will Cooks be a touchdown machine? Of course not. He could be a PPR cheat code though, as Drew Brees and Sean Payton rave about the rookie, his understanding of the offense, and his dominance of defenders in training camp. It wouldn’t shock me to see Cooks crack fantasy’s top-24 receivers.

• Decker is a staple of the mid-round players you need to target on draft day, unless you’re allergic to fantasy value.

• Benjamin has been a training camp all-star thus far — not necessarily a great thing — and at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds in an offense without legit pass-catching targets not named Greg Olsen, he could certainly grab double-digit scores as a rookie. Cam Newton has utilized Benjamin as a primary target in summer practices, according to Panthers beat reporters. The now-departed Steve Smith recorded 103 targets in 2013 — more than any Carolina receiver. Give those looks to Benjamin and I don’t see a reason why he couldn’t post top-25 receiver numbers. For a little perspective: Mike Wallace, who hauled in 73 balls and five scores in 2013, was last year’s WR25.

• I can’t find a solitary reason to target Nicks or Amendola at their current ADPs. Nicks has been an efficiency nightmare for three full seasons now and Amendola couldn’t even reap the benefits from a Gronk-less New England lineup.

• No player should be dead to you — even a guy like Britt who has shattered your fantasy heart year after year after year. He’s running with the St. Louis starters, along with Brian Quick, and at that low, low price, I can’t ignore the once-dominant pass catcher. This is the guy who in 2010 scored an unholy .71 fantasy points every single time he ran a pass route. Not a shred of Britt’s upside is priced into his ADP, and with Dobson now in some doubt thanks to a lingering foot injury, I don’t see any reason not to swing for the fences here and invest in Britt.

• Jennings is a key to the Zero Wide Receiver approach — however risky that might be — and someone who could certainly lead his team in receptions. Jennings notched 12.2 fantasy points per game with Matt Cassel under center last year while proving unusable with Christian Ponder heading the Minnesota offense. I don’t think Jennings will turn into an every-week fantasy starter, but I’m going to take him every time over similarly priced receivers like Wheaton, Smith, and OBJ.

C.D. Carter Fantasy Football Analyst

C.D. Carter is a reporter, author of zombie stories, writer for The Fake Football and XN Sports. Fantasy Sports Writers Association member. His work  has been featured in the New York Times.

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