The NHL’s free agency period officially begins July 1 every year (Canada Day) and can typically involve a lot of money changing hands. The 2014 free agency period was no different:
Per @Sportsnet research. Players signed: 96. Total Value of contracts $543 M.
— Daren Millard (@darenmillard) July 2, 2014
That’s a lot.
Like every year, some are good, some are bad, and some are speculative. For a full list of the signings, TSN has a tracker. Here are quick hits about each of the bigger free agent signings.
Matt Niskanen (D) – Signs with Washington for seven years, $40.25 million
Life, as they say, is all about timing.
Niskanen was frequently the number 1 defenseman this year for the Pittsburgh Penguins with the myriad of injuries their defense corps – specifically Paul Martin and Kris Letang. This led to a career-high in goals, assists, power play points, ice time, and shots on goal. In his first, full 82-game season with Pittsburgh in 2011-2012, he talled 21 points in 75 games. He had 46 in 81 games this year.
It should be noted that while Niskanen had a very good CorsiFor percentage, 53.6-percent to be exact, he was 50.6 percent when not on the ice with Sidney Crosby. He’s a solid top-four defenseman, maybe even a secondary defenseman on a top pairing. It’s not a terrible deal but maybe a bit of an over-payment because of what Niskanen did with the opportunity he was given this year.
Brooks Orpik (D) – Signs with Washington for five years, $27.5 million
This one is a complete head-scratcher.
Over the last two years, Orpik has been slightly above average possession-wise when on the ice with Crosby and 43 percent away from him (which is terrible). This has translated to Orpik being slightly below 50/50 in GoalsFor-percentage (the rate at which he’s on the ice for goals for/against at five-on-five) at 49.5 percent.
Orpik is aging and slowing. His slide in possession numbers started last year and got worse this year. Sure, tough zone starts and competition have something to do with it, but that’ll be his role in Washington, too. There’s no chance this signing looks good down the road, maybe by Christmas 2014.
Paul Stastny (C) – Signs with St. Louis for four years, $28 million
Stastny stays within the division but goes to St. Louis to add to their center depth. David Backes is signed for the next two years, Patrik Berglund signed an extension with the team last week, and Vladimir Sobotka was qualified (as a restricted free agent) on Monday.
Stastny was a positive 4.2-percent CorsiForRelative, which means he was 4.2-percent above his team average in ’13-‘14 (it’s note-worthy because Colorado was a terrible puck possession team this year). He’ll fit right in with St. Louis, who were among the best in the league.
The Blues signed a 28-year-old established number 1 centre and didn’t have to give him a six or seven year deal to do it. With the salary cap rising and the Blues not a real cap team, there was the space to spend the money and in no way handcuffs them.
Ryan Miller (G) – Signs with Vancouver for three years, $18-million
It seems like NHL general managers are catching on to what has become more and more apparent over the years: it’s very hard to predict a single season future performance for a goaltender. Well, maybe not everyone.
The Canucks traded away two franchise goalies in Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider in the space of a year and the team was left to pick up the shambles. Enter Ryan Miller, who posted a .901 save percentage with St. Louis after he was traded there last year (including playoffs). He had been one of the more stable goalies in the NHL for several years, something both Schneider and Luongo can say as well.
This was a move of necessity but laughable at the same time. New general manager, same game thought process. This is nowhere near the Cup-contending team of a few years ago, and Miller’s save percentage last year (.918) wasn’t that much better than Eddie Lack’s (.912). I don’t know if six-tenths of a percentage is worth $18 million to a non-contender.
Thomas Vanek (W) – Signs with Minnesota for three years, $19.5 million
Another signing where the term is good for the age of the player and the cap hit isn’t too bad for a team needing some scoring.
It’s no secret that Vanek wanted to return to Minnesota and he got his wish. What’s crazy about this is that he left about $30 million on the table, considering the offer he rejected from the New York Islanders before he was traded last season. In other words, he gave up more money than any other player signed for in the free agent frenzy, save for Matt Niskanen.
Vanek’s possession numbers have cratered over the last couple of years but it’s tough to tell if most of that isn’t just playing for Buffalo for a bit under half of that stretch. Hopefully the familiarity of his surroundings, not to mention centres like Mikko Koivu or Mikael Granlund, will enable him to maintain his point-producing form.
Buffalo signed everybody
Not really. But the Sabres did add the following:
- Brian Gionta (W): Three years, $12.75-million
- Matt Moulson (W): Five years, $25-million
- Josh Gorges (D) – Traded from Montreal for a 2nd round pick in 2016
- Cody McCormick (F) – Three years, $4.5-million
- Andrej Meszaros (D) – One year, $4.125-million
- Marcus Foligno (F) – Re-signed to two years, $3.75-million
Part of this is that Buffalo had to get to the cap floor (hence why they added over $16-million in salary for next year). Part of this is that there is a complete overhaul going on in Buffalo, and it’s only just begun. The real rebuild starts at the 2015 NHL Draft, where the Sabres have (so far) three first round picks.
I don’t have a particular problem with what Buffalo did. They literally had to spend the money while not over-extending themselves and being able to put a passable product on the ice for the next couple of years while the franchise undergoes a makeover. Moulson, Cody Hodgson, and Tyler Myers are the only players on the books for at least the next five years. The plan is in place and seems to be going well so far. Have patience, Sabres fans.
Benoit Pouliot (W) – Signs with Edmonton for five years, $20-million
Benoit Pouliot is what some in the Twitterverse have called a Fancystats All-Star.
Pouliot has never put up particularly eye-popping numbers. In fact, he’s never cracked 40 points in a season. With that said, he’s one of just six players in the NHL with over 110 points in fewer than 3500 minutes of ice time since 2010. He’s excelled in a third/fourth line role and finally gets his chance to shine in a second line role. For the record, he tallied a better points/60 minutes rate at five-on-five last year than teammates like Chris Kreider, Brad Richards, and Derick Brassard.
In his third/fourth line role for the majority of the last four years, Benoit Pouliot absolutely crushed both in GoalsFor and CorsiFor. That said, there’s a huge difference between playing bottom six in the Eastern Conference and top six in the Western Conference for a team that still isn’t very good. We’ll see how he adjusts, but if he can come anywhere close to what he has done in his past, this is a good signing.
Ales Hemsky (W) – Signs with Dallas for three years, $12 million
In addition to the Hemsky signing, Dallas traded winger Alex Chiasson, a second round pick in 2015, and prospects Nicholas Paul and Alex Guptill to Ottawa for Jason Spezza and prospect Ludwig Karlsson.
After having almost no centre depth a year ago, or before the Stars acquired Tyler Seguin from Boston, they now have a top three of Seguin, Spezza, and Cody Eakin. That’s pretty good. Spezza has just one year left on his deal for a cap hit of $7 million.
Hemsky was traded to Ottawa last year at the trade deadline and he and Spezza found very good chemistry instantly. The pairing were a 53.9-percent CorsiFor together, albeit in a limited sample of 214 minutes. Hemsky did manage 17 points in 20 games with the Senators.
This seems to have the appearance of a signing that could pay off huge dividends. Neither the term nor the cap hit are particularly crippling and it’s a pretty good bet that Hemsky and Spezza will flourish in a secondary role behind the duo of Seguin and Jamie Benn. Not to mention, that top power play unit will be able to rival most any in the NHL.
Brad Richards (C) – Signs with Chicago for one year, $2 million
Considering Richards already has over $85 million in career earnings on file, per CapGeek, and is being paid over $1 million every year as part of his buyout by the Rangers until the year 2026 (not a typo), I don’t think this signing was about money.
It was pretty clear watching Richards in the regular season and playoffs last year that the 34-year-old center is no longer a number 1 center and cannot quarterback a power play. He’ll be asked to do neither in Chicago, with Jonathan Toews eating all the tough minutes and Duncan Keith running their power play. This signing allows highly-touted centre prospect Teuvo Teravainen to grow his game in a bottom-six role, and take some pressure off of him. If he plays well enough to supplant Richards, there’s nothing wrong with a $2 million third line center. If not, the ‘Hawks have their insurance policy.
Mathieu Perreault (C) – Signs with Winnipeg for three years, $9 million
Perreault was third among Ducks forwards in puck possession last year (min. 50 GP), albeit in a somewhat easier role. He wasn’t asked to eat a lot of tough minutes for Anaheim, but he probably won’t have to in Winnipeg, either.
The Jets already have a pretty good first line tandem in Bryan Little and Andrew Ladd; the duo was a positive GoalsFor (55.4-percent) and CorsiFor (54-percent) last year even though they play in front of arguably the worst goalie in the NHL. Mark Scheifele, their young stud centreman, was enjoying a breakout season before a season-ending knee injury in March. With Perreault, the Jets are much in the same position as Chicago with Richards/Teravainen; if Scheifele can play top six minutes, the Jets have a very good third line centre in Perreault. If Scheifele stumbles at all, the Jets have their safety net.
Dave Bolland (C) – Signs with Florida for five years, $27.5 million
The Toronto media were quick to anoint Bolland as a Leafs impact player despite the fact that he wasn’t very good in a support role for a Cup contender in Chicago the previous four seasons. Score one goal at a crucial moment and it’ll earn you tens of millions of dollars, I guess (he scored the Cup-clinching goal for Chicago in 2013; I guess the Leafs should back up the Brinks truck for Jason Arnott, and Alec Martinez as well).
For all the talk of character, Bolland took an extra $600K a year to go to Florida over staying in his home province.
This is another one that will look bad. He’ll have to play a top six role on a rebuilding team and is coming off a devastating injury where he missed over half the season because of a sliced tendon in his ankle. Paying a 28-year-old third line centre who is coming off a major injury over $5-million a season for five years doesn’t seem like a wise decision.
There were lots of other signings that might not look so good very soon. Deryk Engelland signed with Calgary for just $100K less per season than Perreault in Winnipeg; Leo Komarov, who had nine points in 42 games with Toronto a year ago, signed with the Leafs for four years, $11.8-million; Shawn Thornton got a raise from Florida compared to what he made in Boston.
One signing that will look very good is Anton Stralman (D) in Tampa Bay for five years, $22.5-million. With a defense corps that features Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Jason Garrison, and Matt Carle, the Lightning are a team certainly trending in the right direction.
There are some others where a wait-and-see approach has to be taken. Can Jarome Iginla live up to the $16-million that Colorado gave him? Will 37-year-old Stephane Robidas be healthy for the Leafs after breaking his leg twice last year? Can Mike Cammalleri help the scoring woes of New Jersey at a tag of $25-million? How does Milan Michalek fare in Ottawa without Jason Spezza now that Michalek has a fresh $12-million, three-year deal?
Some teams did very well (Dallas), some teams did very poorly (Florida), most teams are somewhere in between. If nothing, free agent frenzy was exactly that.
*As always, thank you Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, Behind The Net, Extra Skater, and CapGeek for their resources
