There has long been talk about how MLB Hall of Fame voting would play out when players from the steroid era started appearing on ballots en masse. Over the last few years, some of the earliest known PED abusers began to trickle into eligibility. Players like Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and Sammy Sosa have had trouble gaining any traction toward induction as the Baseball Writers’ Association of America is establishing an anti-steroid stance as a whole.
Last year, though, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens made their way onto the ballot. The two were likely on their way to the Hall of Fame based on their early career performances, but the fact that they were linked to PEDs in their later years has weighed down their candidacies. Even still, they managed to get more than halfway to the 75 percent threshold needed for induction.
Then, there were players like Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza who have never been truly linked to any illegal substances, but were still lumped into that category. And they suffered for it, though not nearly as much as the McGwires and Palmeiros.
In the end, 2013 marked the first time in 17 years that not a single player received enough votes for enshrinement. And it set up a very difficult situation for voters.
BBWAA rules limit each voter to casting ballots for up to 10 players. So not only are all of the players held over from last year eligible again this year, but there are five more players with legitimate Cooperstown credentials making their debuts in Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, and Frank Thomas.
All five of those players could appear together on several ballots, which would leave just five spots open for the veterans of the process. Voters will have to make tough choices across the board as they must decide which players to omit.
Unfortunately, in some cases, it apparently isn’t that tough. For all the writers who take their duty seriously, there are enough who don’t that it throws a wrench in the process. Take, for instance, Murray Chass, who will vote only for Jack Morris, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and maybe Frank Thomas. He decided he can’t vote for someone like Craig Biggio because he is convinced he used PEDs.
Then there’s the Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy. His ballot reads like Chass’s, but with Thomas and Curt Schilling. But why Thomas and no Bagwell or Piazza?
Like Thomas, guys such as Piazza and Bagwell have Hall of Fame numbers and never tested positive for PEDs. But they look dirty. Something doesn’t make sense. Thomas makes sense.
This is where it gets unfair and subjective. I don’t vote for the PED guys, so it’s easy to say no to Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro. They have positive tests and/or admissions and/or multiple appearances in the Mitchell Report. Piazza and Bagwell have none of that. They just don’t look right.
We also can’t leave out MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. His ballot features only Morris. Says Gurnick, “As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won’t vote for any of them.” So someone like Maddux is being penalized simply for essentially being born in 1966, not to mention the sheer hypocrisy of that statement. Morris himself pitched until 1994. He surely played into the modern steroid era. Then there’s the fact that PEDs had been used, albeit to a lesser scale, for decades. It’s unfair, but unfortunately that’s the way the process works these days.
It’s rationale like this that will make for an interesting Wednesday when the final results are released. Votes will be cast all over the place and there’s no way there will be a unanimous inductee. But don’t expect another goose egg. Someone or someones will be inducted. Here are the cases to be made for players on this year’s ballot and a prediction on whether they will have their own plaque by this summer.
Jeff Bagwell – One of two former Houston Astros “Killer B’s” on this year’s ballot, Bagwell is in his fourth year of eligibility after receiving 41.7 percent, 56.0 percent, and 59.6 percent in his first three tries. A former Rookie of the Year and MVP, Bagwell was a career .297 hitter, fell 12 home runs shy of 500, and his .948 OPS is the 22nd best of all-time. Fairly or not some voters are keeping Bagwell off of their ballots due to the belief he took steroids, despite the fact there is no evidence he did. One thing that he does have going for him is that his vote totals have gone up each year and writers seem to be taking his candidacy more seriously. But he could be on the cut line for voters who have a maxed-out ballot. Still, look for him to pick up a few more votes this year. PREDICTION – 61%
Craig Biggio – Bagwell’s longtime teammate and another of the “Killer B’s” is making his second appearance on the ballot. He was the leading vote-getter last year with 68.2 percent. With 3,060 career hits, Biggio is one of just 28 players in the elite 3,000 Hit Club; an achievement that nearly guarantees a plaque in Cooperstown. The hits, though, were as much a product of volume as they were consistency. He played 20 seasons and only hit .300 or better four times. Additionally, though, he is fifth all-time in doubles, fifteenth in runs scored, and tenth in plate appearances. The catcher-turned-second baseman also made a significant position change nearly as well as anyone ever, earning four Gold Gloves at his secondary position. Even with the new candidates on the ballot, he still remains among the most likely to get to Cooperstown. PREDICTION – 77%
Barry Bonds – Having one year of eligibility under his belt, Bonds now knows where he stands among the electorate. His 36.2 percent of the vote actually provides him with a decent baseline moving forward. If his election was based on stats alone, Bonds would be as sure a bet for the Hall of Fame as anyone. 22 seasons. 762 home runs. 14 All-Star appearances. Seven MVP awards. Any list of the all-time greatest hitters will have his name on it. However, he has been forever tainted due to PEDs. Bonds has denied ever taking any such substances, but there is a lot of evidence supporting the theories that he did. The ironic thing is that he was probably a Hall of Famer without taking steroids. Prior to the 1998 season (using this as a benchmark since this is when the home run records started to fall), Bonds had played in 12 seasons and was just 26 home runs shy of becoming the only member of the 400-400 club. Though some of his best years came in the highly questionable second half of his career, he was already on his way to becoming one of the all-time greats. But, it is what he did in those later years that may ultimately keep him out of the Hall. Still, though, in just his first year he was able to get more than halfway to the 75 percent that he needs to get in. Those votes won’t go anywhere. As viewpoints continue to evolve surrounding steroid-linked players, he may eventually find himself in Cooperstown. This won’t be that year, though. PREDICTION – 39%
Roger Clemens – Facing the same steroid-related problems as Bonds, Clemens was also probably on his way to Cooperstown early on in his career, but it is the success he had from his mid-30s to early 40s that is truly remarkable and unusual. From 1997, when he was 34, to 2005, Clemens won 149 games, posted a 3.22 ERA, and struck out 1,912 batters. He made six All-Star teams and won four Cy Young Awards. His appearances on career leader boards are numerous, including the most Cy Youngs, ninth-highest win total, the third-highest strikeout total, and the third-highest WAR for a pitcher. It is a resume as deep as any hurler in the history of the game. Were it not for the PED allegations, he would have been a first-ballot inductee. But that’s not what happened. He managed eight more votes than Bonds to finish with 37.6 percent. His progression or regression will likely come at the same rate as Bonds’, and they may both pick up a few votes this year. PREDICTION – 40%
Tom Glavine – One of the freshmen to the Hall voting process, Glavine boasts a resume worthy of Cooperstown. During his 22-year career, he went 305-203, had a 3.54 ERA, and 2,607 strikeouts. He finished in the top three of Cy Young voting six times and won it twice. He was also a 10-time all-star. He topped the 20-win mark five different times and threw at least 195 innings 17 different seasons. Glavine was a centerpiece of the Braves teams that made the playoffs 10 times from 1991-2002. Though his career postseason record was just 14-16, he still owned a 3.30 ERA in 35 playoff games. There were periods he was even relatively dangerous with the bat, winning four Silver Slugger Awards. It would be a surprise if Glavine is not a first ballot Hall of Famer. PREDICTION – 91%
Jeff Kent – In addition to Biggio, this ballot also features another one of the great second basemen of this era. Kent enjoyed a productive 17-year career with six different teams. His 2,461 hits rank 10th all-time among second basemen. The only two in the top 12 at the position who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Kent and Biggio. His 377 homers are the most ever for a second baseman and his 1,518 RBI are third. He won the 2000 National League MVP Award ahead of teammate Barry Bonds. He finished his career with a very respectable .290/.356/.500 line, but he was only a five-time all-star which came during one seven-year period of his 17-year tenure. On the defensive side of the ball, he left a lot to be desired, which should be taken into account, especially at second base. He had a -30.6 career UZR, according to FanGraphs. He’s a bit tougher to project, though he should get some votes. But whatever he does get will still leave him a long road ahead for enshrinement. PREDICTION – 16%
Greg Maddux – If there is such a thing as a slam dunk on this year’s ballot, Maddux has to be it. He was as dominant as a pitcher could be with a mid-80s fastball. He was among the best ever at spotting pitches and changing speeds, and the results showed that. Over 23 years, he went 355-227 with a 3.16 ERA while notching 3,371 strikeouts. His win total is the eighth most ever, thanks largely to his 17 straight seasons with at least 15 wins — a major league record. He enjoyed one particularly brilliant four-year run from 1992-1995, during which he won the Cy Young Award each season. He finished in the top five five other times. Maddux was an eight-time all-star and a record 18-time Gold Glove Award winner, while making 25 starts in a season a MLB-best 20 consecutive years. He also posted a career postseason ERA of 3.27 in 35 games. There has never been a unanimous inductee, and Maddux won’t be the first only because of the self-indulgence of some members of the electorate. But he will be close. PREDICTION – 97%
Edgar Martinez – Martinez is one of the best pure designated hitters of all-time. Very few players have been able to base a career solely around swinging the bat, but Martinez mastered it. In 2,055 games over the course of 18 seasons, Martinez was the DH in 1,403 of them. He is the Seattle Mariners’ all-time leader in games, runs, doubles, RBI, walks, and on-base percentage and is within the top two or three in most other major categories. He is one of just 10 players in MLB history who ended his career with a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, 300 home runs, 500 doubles, and 1,000 walks — and he is the only eligible member of that club yet to be inducted into the Hall. As just a one-dimensional player, though, many writers have felt it hard to justify his enshrinement. In his third try at the Hall last year, he picked up 35.9% of votes, which was actually down from the 36.5% from the year before. With such a full slate this year, he may slide a bit more. PREDICTION – 31%
Jack Morris – This is it for Morris. After 14 unsuccessful tries, his potential induction comes down to one more vote. He finished behind only Biggio in last year’s voting with 67.7 percent. He’ll need a few more votes if his long ordeal will come to a happy end. He was a good, but rarely great, pitcher during his career. He was an innings-eater and his 254 wins tie him for 42nd all-time, while his 2,478 strikeouts put him at 32nd. If elected, his 3.90 career ERA would be the highest for anyone in Cooperstown. He is best known for his 10-inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series and it will remain that way if he never gets his 75 percent. Because of the influx of high-caliber first-timers, Morris could be overlooked in what is typically the closely-scrutinized final year push. It’s a tough year for him to make his last stand, and he may, once again, find himself on the wrong side of that magic number. If his quest does come to an end this year, he may only need to wait a few more before the Veterans Committee inducts him itself. PREDICTION – 65%
Mike Mussina – The Moose will be one of the more interesting players to watch on this ballot. He enjoyed a long and successful career, but was it really Hall-worthy? He does have a .638 lifetime winning percentage, but his 270 wins are not high enough to make him an automatic inductee, though he did win at least 10 games every year following his abbreviated rookie season, and in his last season at age 39, won 20 games for the first time. His 3.68 ERA translates to an ERA+ of 123, which is just about at the average for Hall of Fame starters. Among the knocks against Mussina is that, while he was generally a consistently good pitcher, he was never at any one time the best. He led the league in wins and shutouts once each, but never finished atop the AL in any other major category. He was second in the 1999 Cy Young Award voting, but didn’t finish higher than fourth any other time. He made four all-star teams and won seven Gold Gloves. The question for Mussina will be whether voters reward him for his consistency over nearly two decades, or hold it against him that he was never truly at the top of the pitching hierarchy. Curt Schilling might be a good first-ballot comp, though Mussina may not have quite as much success without Schilling’s October resume and the fact that this is a loaded ballot. PREDICTION – 24%
Mike Piazza – Sixteen catchers have been elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame and Piazza hopes to make it seventeen. One of the best offensive backstops of all-time, he is the career leader in home runs at the position with 427. He also tops the position in slugging percentage and OPS. His .308 career batting average is third-best behind Hall of Famers Mickey Cochrane and Bill Dickey. If there is a knock on Piazza, though, it is his defensive ability. He had just a 23 percent career caught-stealing percentage and never ranked in the top-ten in the category during any season. Additionally, many people believe Piazza used PEDs, though there is no real evidence of it aside from the circumstantial presence of back acne, which some writers have decided is proof enough to keep him off their ballot. In his first attempt last year, he finished with a strong 57.8%. That’s a good sign for his future, and he may get a little closer this time. PREDICTION – 60%
Tim Raines – Raines was a dominant force in the 1980s for the Montreal Expos. Every year from 1981 to 1986, Raines had at least 70 steals, including 90 in 1983. His total of 808 stolen bases is good for fifth all-time. He was an All-Star seven consecutive years and is one of the top leadoff hitters ever. Unfortunately for him, he played in the same era as Rickey Henderson and lived largely in his shadow. As two speedy, top-of-the-order players with similar skill sets, Henderson received more publicity due to his outgoing personality and stolen base dominance in the American League that included his 130-steal season of 1982; the same season Raines led the NL with a mere 78. Raines’s 84.7 stolen base percentage for his career was actually nearly four full points better than Henderson’s. Though he had just 2,605 hits compared to Henderson’s 3,055, Raines’s .294 career batting average was 15 points better. Raines has been on the ballot for six years and his vote totals have grown steadily over the last couple, picking up 52.2% in 2013. Had he reached the 3,000 hit plateau, he would be a surefire Hall of Famer. As it stands, he will likely need a few more years for enough voters to become convinced to support his candidacy, but he is heading in the right direction. PREDICTION – 54%
Curt Schilling – Schilling was never the best pitcher during any particular season, but much of his legacy is based on what he did in October. In 2001, he and Randy Johnson shared the World Series MVP trophy as they both led the Arizona Diamondbacks to a World Series title. It was for that reason the Boston Red Sox traded for him during Thanksgiving weekend of 2003. The following postseason, he delivered one of the most memorable big game performances ever in the infamous “Bloody Sock Game”, when he gave up just one run in seven innings on a sutured ankle to force a Game 7 in the ALCS. He helped the Red Sox win their first championship in 86 years then and followed that up with another title three years later. In 19 career postseason starts he went 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA. But does playoff dominance warrant a spot in Cooperstown? During the regular season, he won just 20 games three times and had some marginal years during the middle of his career — which contributed to his relatively low career win total (216) for a potential Hall of Famer. He does, however, rank 15th in career strikeouts with 3,116 and was a workhorse, topping 200 innings pitched nine times. His 76.9 WAR also ranks him 26th among pitchers and every eligible player ranked higher has been enshrined in the Hall. The lack of any Cy Young Awards and only six All-Star games may hurt his candidacy, but he still received his fair share of votes in his first eligible year. Will he stand out enough among pitchers with deeper resumes who are also on this ballot to make up more ground? PREDICTION – 39%
Lee Smith – The one-time career saves leader, Smith is back for his twelfth attempt for induction. He was one of the first true closers in the majors and spent 18 years closing out games, finishing with 478 saves — a record that stood for 13 years. But he was never truly dominant, finishing with an ERA below 3.00 in just five seasons. His accomplishments are also less impressive when compared to today’s standards for closers. Even with the higher level of importance of closers in today’s game, he is still the only pitcher to record 25 or more saves in 13 consecutive seasons. Only five relievers have ever been inducted to Cooperstown, though, and they were all players who were dominating or changed the game. Smith’s totals were more the product of a long and steady career. Two years ago, he saw his highest vote total at 50.6%, but he lost almost 3% last year. It may not be any better this time around. PREDICTION – 46%
Frank Thomas – The Big Hurt is the best offensive rookie to the ballot. One of the most feared hitters in baseball during the 90s, Thomas finished his 19-year career with 519 home runs. That in itself could be enough for Cooperstown. The only Hall-eligible players with that many homers who haven’t been enshrined have been linked to PEDs. Thomas doesn’t have that problem. He was also much more than just a power hitter. He won the 1997 batting title with a .347 average, and actually had two other seasons during which he had a higher average. He finished with 2,468 hits and a line of .301/.419/.555. His .974 OPS is 14th-highest in major league history. He won back-to-back MVP Awards in 1993 and 1994, and finished in the top three three other times. By Wednesday, he should be able to add Hall of Famer to his resume. PREDICTION – 93%
Alan Trammell – Another veteran to the Hall of Fame ballot, Trammell is making his thirteenth appearance, peaking with 36.8 percent two years ago. The long-time Tigers shortstop has found it difficult to gain significant traction in his bid for Cooperstown. The six-time all-star was always a well-rounded player, and is one of the best offensive shortstops ever, but rarely stood out in any one particular area. The only category in which he ever led the American League was sacrifice hits. He had seven seasons in which he hit higher than .300, three in which he had more than 20 stolen bases, three in which he scored more than 100 runs, and two in which he had more than 20 home runs. He will always be considered a solid player for his 20 years of service in Detroit, but may never be seen as great in enough voters’ eyes to be Hall-worthy. PREDICTION – 30%
