The math wizards and geniuses who pump out new and exciting algorithms in a never-ending attempt to predict the statistical future of everyone who wears a football uniform on Sunday afternoons should use this upcoming off-season to devise a Nothing To Lose (NTL) algorithm.
That very NTL algorithm would’ve told us that Billy Cundiff, playing against the most kicker-generous defense in the NFL, might’ve been a worse play than the numbers said.
The Browns, after all, had been mathematically eliminated from the postseason, leaving the team once again in evaluation mode. They had nothing to lose, in short, so the team went for it on not one, but two first half fourth downs. With anything to lose, Cundiff would’ve been trotted out to rack up fantasy points for our various squads.
Cundiff’s seven Week 16 points could’ve easily been 13. Alas, there is no NTL algorithm. Not yet, anyway.
Our other Week 16 kicker, Phil Dawson, totaled 10 points — the fourth most of any kicker.
Here’s a look at two kickers I’m going to deploy in daily fantasy leagues this week.
Caleb Sturgis (MIA) vs. New York Jets
There’s no need for the NTL algorithm here. The Dolphins are playing for their playoff lives against a Jets team that looked downright respectable just last week.
The Jets have given up double-digit fantasy points to kickers in an astounding eight of their past 10 games, and now allow the most schedule-adjusted points to kickers (10.2) than any other team. The reasons, I think, are twofold: offenses are able to move the ball through the air at will against Gang Green and the Jets shut down opponents once in the red zone.
Offenses only score touchdowns on 43 percent of possessions that move into the red zone. The Jets, over the past three weeks, have posted a 27 percent red zone touchdown rate — third best in the league.
Sturgis didn’t score a single point against Buffalo last week. Don’t let that scare you away from the Miami kicker in Week 17.
Blair Walsh (MIN) vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions kept up their stingy ways in the red one last week, holding down the Giants a few times as they approached the end zone in the second half. Detroit’s red zone touchdown percentage stands at 38 percent.
Only Seattle’s defense is better inside the 20-yard line.
Vegas projects Minnesota to put up a hearty 27 points against the deteriorating debacle known as the Detroit Lions. I don’t think there’s any question this game will be filled with offense, and that Walsh will have a glut of opportunity.
Walsh, who had posted double-digit fantasy points in three of his previous four games before last week’s two-point effort in Cincinnati, should be played anywhere you can’t grab Sturgis.
