One of our Week 13 kicker choices was a top-7 play while the other was (almost) the lowest-scoring option of Week 13.
Blair Walsh, our Week 13 success story in this space, hit three field goals and two extra points on his way to 11 fantasy points against the Bears, a defense that has proven generous to opposing kickers throughout 2013.
Jay Feely, on the other hand, managed just three extra points and was one of the only kickers this season not to post a decent line against the Philadelphia Eagles. So it goes with pretending we know something about kickers — fantasy’ most volatile position, and the bane of our Sunday afternoons.
Here’s what I’m doing in this space: I examine two numbers to identify favorable kicker matchups: 4for4′s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers and a defense’s red zone touchdown scoring percentage, or the frequency in which a defense allows an offense to cross the goal line once inside the 20-yard line.
The lower the percentage, the better for our kickers.
I’ll dig deep this week. It’s the playoffs, after all, and we long to over-analyze every conceivable decision for every one of our various fantasy squads.
The Falcons have been a reliable kicker target for the season’s first 13 weeks, but I’m staying away from Mason Crosby this week. The reason has a name: Matt Flynn. Sometimes it’s best to retreat from fantasy dumpster fires, even when parts of those odious fires have good matchups on paper.
Leave Crosby alone.
Dan Bailey (DAL) at Chicago Bears
I wouldn’t let the expected freezing Chicago temperatures push me away from deploying Bailey this week. The Bears are the league’s third most generous team to kickers, allowing 9.5 schedule-adjusted fantasy points per contest.
Chicago’s awful defense falls just outside the top ten in red zone touchdown percentage, coming in at 11th with a 50 percent red zone touchdown rate.
Bailey, like most Cowboys, has had a quiet statistical season after proving a godsend for fantasy owners in 2012. He’s only scored in double digits four times through 13 weeks. I still like his prospects this Monday against the Bears.
Alex Henery (PHI) vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions — sadly for us — have improved against kickers over the past month. I long for the days when streaming kickers was as easy as glancing at Detroit’s schedule.
The Lions, thanks to their spectacular 38 percent red zone touchdown rate, are still allowing nine point per game to opposing kickers — seventh worst in the NFL.
Detroit’s run-stuffing defense has allowed touchdowns in the red zone just 28 percent of the time over their most recent three games. Only the Eagles and Jets have posted lower percentages.
Rolling with Henery is a bit of a leap of faith. He’s cracked double digits just twice all season, and posted seven points or less a whopping seven times.
