I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.
There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.
Finally, as far as goalie’s go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.
Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.
Remember: On short days like today, stack the best players from who you think will win the game. You would be hard-pressed to deplete your budget.
Games are color-coded as follows:
Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.
Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators
In two games already this year, the Red Wings have lost to Ottawa by a combined score of 10-3. Detroit is righting the ship a bit lately, but don’t read too much into it: in winning four of their last five games, the wins are against Carolina, Buffalo, the New York Islanders, and the Boston Bruins in a bit of a trap game. Their only loss was at the hands of the Senators.
Ottawa has scored nine power play goals in their last seven games, at least two power play goals in three of their last six, which included a 2-for-8 performance on November 23 against Detroit. Ottawa’s team defense is better, having not allowed over 37 shots in five straight games. It seems like a low bar to set, but they started the month with three such games consecutively, so it’s worth noting. Look for goalie Robin Lehner today in the net.
|
Top RW Value |
Top LW Value |
Top C Value |
Top D Value |
Bargain Bin |
|
(OTT) $10,850 |
Clarke Macarthur (OTT) $8750 |
(OTT) $9750 |
(OTT) $13,300 |
(DET) $7000 |
Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars
It’s a pretty simple formula for Edmonton this year. For the most part, they lose to good teams and beat bad teams. One of their losses came a little over two weeks ago to Dallas, a 3-0 shutout at home. After seemingly turning their fortunes around, the Oilers have now lost two of their last three, being outscored 9-6 over that stretch.
Dallas will be a bit scary to pick from tonight after this tweet this morning:
Tyler Seguin (muscle issue) a game time decision for tonight.
— Mark Stepneski (@StarsInsideEdge) December 1, 2013
If Seguin can’t go, that’s going to wreak havoc on matchups and combinations. Not only that, even if he can go, what kind of game shape is he going to be in? Don’t forget the Stars lost their leader on defense in Stéphane Robidas for the season with a broken leg in their last game. I don’t feel overly confident either way about this contest, so by default, I’ll defer to the home team with the better goaltender. But keep this in mind: Dallas has allowed at least one power play goal against in six of their last eight games.
|
Top RW Value |
Top LW Value |
Top C Value |
Top D Value |
Bargain Bin |
|
(EDM) $11,100 |
(DAL) $12,400 |
(DAL) $7300 |
(DAL) $6750 |
(DAL) $6900 |
Good luck with today’s games!
