Daily Fantasy Hockey Value Picks: November 27th

First things first, I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalie’s go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

The Canadiens have won three straight games, going 3-for-14 on the power play over that stretch (21.4-percent). Normally, I would start any goalie against Buffalo, but the Habs have allowed power play goals in three straight games, the upside for their goalies is probably capped.

That’s not to say Buffalo is going to fill the net; they have just five goals in their last four games. Don’t assume a Montréal stack against Buffalo is a gimmie, as Buffalo is 2-3 this month at home, including a shootout win against the Los Angeles Kings (thanks to Ryan Miller).

Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils

The Hurricanes are starting to find the back of the net, scoring nine goals in their last three games. Their best player, Eric Staal, is playing like their best player; he has points in six straight games (three goals, five assists), but the problem is that he’s still a minus-2 over that stretch. Look for this to be a low-scoring affair, so Cam Ward might not be a bad option here.

The Devils are really, really having trouble scoring again, having been shutout three times this month. With just one goal in back-to-back games and 28-or-fewer shots in eight straight games, don’t be too high on many guys from New Jersey unless they’re bargain prices rounding out your team.

Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders

Winnipeg is a very Jekyll-And-Hyde team. I expected them to lay down on Monday, and they stomped New Jersey. I expected them to get pummeled by Minnesota last week and they only lost 3-2 in a shootout. All that said, if you’re not taking players off their top line, you’re throwing blind darts at best.

The Islanders have been on a slide – their goalie situation is a mess – but their offensive game hasn’t gone anywhere: despite going 2-6 in their last eight games, they haven’t scored fewer than two goals in any of them. If you’re going to grab Islanders, make sure they’re their power play guys. There’s not much for value in their depth players.

Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals

The Senators are playing some bad hockey recently. Having gone 2-5 in their last seven games, allowing 26 goals over that stretch and at least 36 shots against in three of those seven games, it would be a prime night to stack a few Capitals players tonight. I wouldn’t be too keen on any goalies in this match-up, however.

The Capitals have seen their penalty kill sputter a little bit lately, but Ottawa is averaging five penalty kills against over their last three games, so if Washington’s power play was going to get back on track, tonight wouldn’t be a bad night.

Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets

Nashville is pretty good on the power play, but the Blue Jackets haven’t allowed a power play goal against in three straight games. Nashville has scored eight goals in their last six road games, with their power play going 3-for-24 over that run of games (12.5-percent). Expect this to be another low-scoring affair.

Columbus gives up a lot of shots on goal, which can be problematic at times for daily fantasy goaltending; it provides a good opportunity to rack up points but it can also mean six and seven goals against (both of which Columbus has done in the last four games. I wouldn’t take much away from this game except for a few top line value plays.

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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