Like Nikola Pekovic‘s game, the Timberwolves’ signing of the Montenegrin big man is appropriately sound and robust. Coming off his best NBA year (though not when viewed under a per-36 minutes microscope—more on that later), Pekovic knew he could hold out for a long-term deal even in a changing market. As reported by USA Today, and unnamed sources, Pekovic is the recipient of a 5-year, $60 million deal that comes with added incentives. And clearly, Pekovic likes his incentives.
There was little concern that Minnesota would retain the center. He was a restricted free agent, which means the Western Conference team could match any offers flung his way and, to make matters easier, very few were. That’s surprising given that Nikola has good size (is 6-foot-11 and a J.J. Barea-sized hamburger away from 300 pounds), guards the pick-and-roll aptly, is one of the league’s best offensive rebounders, can score for his position, and, as a top-15 center in a shrinking league, is a valued commodity. His upside might not be as far-reaching as most people assume but he certainly has the potential to improve in various areas.
If he can remain healthy, and can continue to improve on his game, the Timberwolves are in good position to battle for the lowest rungs of the Western Conference playoffs. Both SJN and ESPN have them at the 7 and 8 mark respectively.
As their center of the foreseeable future, Pek is a good complimentary piece for Minnesota darlings Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love. As an assist garbage dispenser for Rubio and someone to man or co-man the paint depending on where Love is on the floor in his courtwide style of play. He could do with better hands (or perhaps patience) as he tends to mishandle some Rubio feeds but at 27 can still improve on that front.
His best year by far came last season, as you can see from his career numbers (courtesy of Basketball Reference).
|
Season |
MPG |
FG% |
FT% |
ORB |
DRB |
TRB |
AST |
STL |
BLK |
TOV |
PF |
PPG |
|
‘10-’11 |
13.6 |
51.7 |
76.3 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
3.0 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
5.5 |
|
‘11-’12 |
26.9 |
56.2 |
74.3 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
7.4 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
13.9 |
|
‘12-’13 |
31.6 |
52.0 |
74.4 |
3.7 |
5.1 |
8.8 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
16.3 |
But when factored at a per-36min rate actually looks very similar to 2011-12. Again, signaling that his upside might not be what folks would like to be.
|
Season |
FG% |
FT% |
ORB |
DRB |
TRB |
AST |
STL |
BLK |
TOV |
PF |
PPG |
|
‘10-’11 |
51.7 |
76.3 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
7.8 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
3.7 |
7.3 |
14.6 |
|
‘11-’12 |
56.2 |
74.3 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
9.9 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
18.5 |
|
‘12-’13 |
52.0 |
74.4 |
4.2 |
5.8 |
10.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
18.6 |
He did score a tad better, lost the ball less, and fouled at a lower rate, but mostly his numbers stayed the same or changed only a tenth of a point. Most alarming is that his field goal percentage took quite a dive.
But that’s the thing, Pekovic was able improve on the intangibles while largely keeping his numbers up and despite playing alongside a roster perpetually on crutches. That drop in shooting percentage came from being Minnesota’s No.1 option for vast stretches. Teams prepare for that.
With Kevin Love back, and an upgraded roster to pass to, Pekovic can pursue the maturing of his strengths after having reduced his weaknesses at a time when doing that can be out of reach. Sure, his passing could have also used a nice boost but no one’s perfect. The Timberwolves won’t be either but by keeping Pek they’ve set their place in the Western Conference pecking order.
