One thing that many fantasy players might not realize is that many of the very same data sets we use to find value in the fantasy realm are used to find value in the sports betting realm. In fact, the data analyzed by a typical fantasy player tends to be much more than that of the typical bettor.
A Public Stomping
There has to be a winner and there has to be a loser. It’s just the nature of sports … well, I guess except soccer where people cheer for a draw — I’ll never understand that or find that acceptable. Anyhow, week 3 of NFL action held a lot of big upsets and boy did many bettors get crushed this Sunday … and because value is found in much the same way, many a person’s lineup was also crushed.
Public Gets Smashed
The Ravens were a field goal favorite in London and got absolutely trounced by the Jaguars 44-7, barely avoiding a shutout. 87% of the money was on the Ravens.
The Panthers were five-and-a-half-point favorites over the saints, and they got crushed 34-13 at home.
The Jets were six-point underdogs to the fins and they ended up winning 20-6.
Denver traveled to Buffalo as field goal favorites after smashing a tough Cowboys team in Week 2 and ended up losing outright 16-26. 83% of the public was backing the Broncos.
The Raiders have looked great … but not good enough to win as favorites in Washington. 63% of the public and 83% of all the money wagered was on the Raiders.
76% of the cash for Seattle-Tennessee was on the Seahawks, even though they were 2-point dogs in Nashville.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were 8-point favorites over the lowly Bears … Yet Chicago managed a 6-point win and again crushed the public. 72% of the public was on the Steelers to win and 73% of the people betting the spread were also on the Steelers to cover. It looks like the Steelers and the public got the rug pulled out from under them on this game.
Honorable Mention
The New England Patriots came as high as 15-point favorites at closing versus an inefficient Houston Texans … and barely squeaked out the win. Losing by just three points, the Texans got an easy backdoor cover and again cost the public (72% of us) their money.
We have the Same story for the Packers. 78% of the public backed them to cover the number but the Bengals hung in there. Those that correctly assessed this matchup, walked away with cash in hand. But if you want to try putting your fantasy skills to test in the betting markets, be sure to review sportsbetting.ag or similar sites to make sure you are getting the most advantageous lines.
Perspective
Let’s use an upset shown above as an example of how this ties into DFS: Kirk Cousins came in at $6,100 which was around $700 cheaper than Derek Carr. Just like the betting public, many people had high expectations for the Raiders and Carr. However, Capt. Kirk is the one who hit viable cash game value, putting 26.80 on Yahoo’s boards while Derek Carr was a costly bust at just 7.22.
Low Pay, High Reward
Todd Gurley at $6800 was a bargain that bulldozed opposing lineups with 32.9 yahoo points and 37.9 ESPN points.
Brandin Cooks came in a good price and dropped 32.1 points on ESPN’s boards (27.10 yahoo).
DeShone Kizer came in at just $5000 and scored 25.08. Now there is great return on investment.
Jordan Howard put up 26.40 at a price of just $5000! That’s just plain old fashion winning, right there.
Biggest Busts
Julio Jones $9300 for 9.10 points … nowhere near acceptable CGV.
Derek Carr $6800 for 7.22 points. Did you have him? And did you win? Doubtful.
Amari Cooper $7100 for not even a point … just .60. “Wah, wah, wah.” Though Cooper was far from the highest priced receiver on the various markets, he definitely was a very poor investment during Week 3 and takes the cake as the biggest bust.
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Featured Image Credit: By Georgia National Guard (Flickr: Playoff Pass) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
