DFS Plays: NFL Week 1 DFS Game-by-Game Analysis

NFL picks against the spread

Without a foundation laid, DFS plays for Week 1 of the NFL season rely heavily on last year’s gameplans carrying over into 2016. Specifically, we frequently cite a quarterback’s ‘go-to guy’ as the player that received the bulk of targets, last year. Without any discernible changes in quarterback-wide-receiver relationships, we will assume season-to-season continuity.

Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.

Luke May is Sproflio’s resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as the expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Luke’s DFS Take: Kansas City is a complete wild card, making it that much more difficult to project. With Jamaal Charles not expected to play, Spencer Ware is the favorite to lead the team in carries. But, with multiple other options to consider, I have a hard time committing to Ware outright. It’s all about the passing game for the Chargers. I’m targeting Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, and Antonio Gates. Travis Benjamin is a nice boom-or-bust play, if swinging for the fences.

Mario’s DFS Take: One of my favorite upset plays of the week. With too many running back options, the play from San Diego will have to be Philip Rivers in the assumption that his success will push the Chargers into a winning position – even if they lose. Keenan Allen – back from injury – and Antonio Gates are the skill position players to pair with Rivers.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Luke’s DFS Take: This game offers very little appeal for DFS. Adrian Peterson should see 25 carries, and, with that much work, he should have some success. Until the quarterback situation in Minnesota gains some clarity, there’s not too much excitement to be had for any pass catchers. For Tennessee, the only player I’d consider is Delanie Walker. He was Mariota’s go-to guy last season – he ranked 14th in total targets, first in the league among tight ends – and, with no significant threats at wide receiver, Walker should continue to receive plenty of targets.

Mario’s DFS Take: How can you not want to lean on Adrian Peterson? The Vikings certainly will. In order for them to win – I think they will – it will have to be on the legs of Adrian Peterson. To that point, I don’t love either running back from Tennessee, and I’d be compelled to roll with Minnesota’s defense.

Click to here to sign up for Sporfolio to see rest of Week 1 DFS plays. Sporfolio uses game flow projections based on our picks against the spread to recommend players.

Featured Image Credit: By Jeffrey Beall (Own work) [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

author avatar
Mario Mergola
Mario Mergola is a writer, avid sports fan, former ESPN Radio producer, husband, and father who specializes in finding the hidden gems of the less-explored option. Follow @MarioMergola