When I construct my fantasy lineups, throughout the DFS sports, two common things end up being my baseline for the path my roster takes. The top value plays and the highest ceiling superstar studs. In this article, I will attempt to attack these two prevalent fantasy focus points in NBA DFS.
I will list the players match up vs position for the last week because that is the most applicable to me, with the enormous amount of turnover in players and rotations from week to week in the NBA. For shooting guards and small forwards I list the DvP as SG,SF because there is a lot of defensive switches on the wings and the teams do not always match up SG vs SG and SF vs SF. For power forwards and centers I list the DvP PF,C so I get a general sense of how difficult a test the opponents front court is as a whole. I actually will use the PF,C DvP to help me for point guard selection as well to see how driving to the hoop will go for the PG, but I will not be listing those DvP’s under each point guard’s section.
After that I like to see how the match up went last time and try to delve a little deeper and figure out what has changed since then and the effects on the game script. I will attempt to provide thoughts on the most convoluted situations, particularly those with moving pieces.
Note: Superior value may arise later in the day with injury news, as well as shifting the best high end options, as it commonly does, but as of being written, typically before 9 AM, these are my favorite plays.
AWAY @ HOME – Total | Line
BKN @ MIA – 212 | MIA -10
Value:
($5K)Bojan Bogdanovic
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 8, 23
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 15.2 Fpts in 30.4 Mins
People won’t want to pay this price, but he has a ton of upside at $5K with the propensity to get hot, and has the best matchup on his team.
OKC @ TOR – 211 | OKC -2.5
Ceiling:
($10.3K)Kevin Durant
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 29,29
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 50.4 Fpts in 37.7 Mins
Kevin Durant will be my top target for the day, due to his decreased price and the difficult match up for Westy, possibly funneling some more work to KD.
($10.6K)Russel Westbrook
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 4
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 48 Fpts in 35.3 Mins
Westy always has the upside to win you money, but with KD cheaper and all the value Pgs, I doubt I will play Westbrook tonight.
NY @ NO – 201.5 | NY -4.5
Ceiling:
($8.7K)Carmelo Anthony
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 17, 11
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 49.1 Fpts 39.3 Mins
New Orleans is a horrible defense and is only dogs by 4.5, meaning this game should stay close. Melo should be able to do whatever he wants today.
Value:
Jrue Holiday is questionable for today’s game. If he sits and you wan’t to take a shot at Tim Frazier, Luke Babbit, or Dante Cunningham, I wouldn’t hate it, but I like 3 other guys a ton more on the cheap end. If I had to rank the NO cheapies, they would be in the order I brought them up. Jrue is a must play if he does go.
SA @ MEM – 192.5 | SA -7.5
Kawai Leonard has been ruled out, along with Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan.
($8K)LaMarcus Aldridge
Aldridge put up 56.9 Fpts in this exact situation 3 days ago and there is no reason for a fade. Fire him up in 100% of lineups.
Zach Randolph is questionable
PHO @ MIN – 218 | MIN -6.5
Value:
UPDATE: CHANDLER WILL PLAY, DON’T PLAY JON LEUER
($4.4k)Jon Leuer
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 18,8
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 17.76 Fpts in 19.4 Mins (data compiled with smaller role, off bench)
A lot of people will be afraid of of the fishing lure who caught everyone off guard on Saturday. If he is starting he is certainly a good play in a decent match up, in the highest total game of the day.
ATL @ CHI – 205.5 | ATL -3
LAK @ UTA – 193 | -14
Ceiling:
($7.3K)Derrick Favors
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 10, 24
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: didn’t play in matchups vs LAK this year
DAL @ DEN – 213 | DEN -1.5
Ceiling:
($6.2K)Nicolas Jokic
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 29, 25
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 20.3 Fpts in 16.7 Mins
This is a very interesting matchup for Jokic, because I am not sure who will be able to stop him. While he has not performed well this season in this matchup if you look at the 203 Fpts, he did it in 16.7 mins! If he gets the 23.6 minutes he has been averaging over his last 5 that extrapolates to 28.69 Fpts, which would almost meet value at his $6.2K. Couple that with the vast decline in the Dallas defense over the last month and you have a great GPP play.
Value:
Deron Williams(abdomen) will not play in this game. That puts J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton as 2 of my favorite value plays again. Barea fell a little short of value, but that was due to an unforseen blowout vs the Kings, who can never seem to leave teams in the dust. He had 19.1 Fpts in 3 quarters, so he would have crushed value if he had played in the 4th. I’m plugging in ($4.1K)Felton and ($4K)Barea as my Pgs and moving on in an up tempo, high total game, with a good matchup.
($5.8K)Emmanual Mudiay
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 29
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 25.4 Fpts in 33.4 Mins
Mudiay’s matchup dramatically improves with Deron out, predominantly facing J.J. Barea, a bottom of the league defender who’s also undersized. He has 45 Fpt upside today.
SAC @ POR – 219.5 | POR -11.5
UPDATE: COUSINS PLAYING, DONT ROSTER KOUFUS
Demarcus Cousins is unlikely to play in this game. That means its Koufus time.
Ceiling:
($7.7K)Rajon Rondo
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 20
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 35 Fpts in 34.6 Mins
I have been noticing Rondo actually receives the biggest boost of the other two stars with DMC out.
($7K)C.J. McCollum
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 5, 6
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 47.7 Fpts in 35.4 Mins
The production in this matchup in the past is evident, and the lack of wing defense is well known. McCollum makes for a great upside play, but may be high owned due to a big game last night.
Value:
($3.8K)Kosta Koufus
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 26, 26
This Season vs Opp. Avg.:
The Koufus rule came through for me and he returns to prevalence in one of the best possible matchups in the NBA.
BOS @ LAC – 208 | LAC -3.5
Just Give Me the Damn Plays
Top Value:
J.J. Barea
Raymond Felton
Jon Leuer(if he starts)
Top Ceiling:
LaMarcus Aldridge
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
Lines as of 10 AM
Featured Image Credit: By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (Kevin Durant) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
