Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cheap Advice 3/1/16

Point Guard

Dennis Schroder (DK $5000, FD $5000, 27.7 USG)

What I would do first before going this cheap at PG is seriously consider the middle tier options.  If after then, you still don’t feel comfortable with your roster, Schroder should provide us some salary relief and likely low ownership with how he’s performed over his last 2 games.  Before those two games, Schroder had been averaging 36.5 DKPTS over his previous 4.  His price has dropped back down to a more respectable tag and faces a GS team that he just scored 30.8 DKPTS on.  I don’t like his playing time (under 20 min in last 3 games) but he’s proven to not need minutes to exceed value.  He only played 18 the last time they met (owned a 33.8 USG% that game).  I would strictly limit this play to tourney’s only, as there are safer quality cash game options right above his price.  I’m more likely to pay for guys like Russell, Clarkson and even Sloan at his newly inflated price.

Steph Curry is currently listed as questionable so if he sits, Shaun Livingston immediately becomes solid value.

Shooting Guard

Mario Hezonja (DK $3500, FD $3700, 17.4 USG)

When news first broke on Sunday that Fournier would not be playing against Philly, I went straight to my phone to lock Super Mario into all my lineups.  He hit 3X value within the first 5 minutes and then quickly got himself into foul trouble, which limited him to only 27 minutes.  I think it’s safe to assume somewhere closer to 32 minutes, minus the foul trouble and with Fournier likely out again tonight, Hezonja becomes a great play again.  In the two games Mario has played over 30 minutes this year, he’s averaging 27.5 DKPTS.  Fair warning though, the matchup isn’t particularly as great as the Sixers.  The Mavericks are 10th in DvP against SF’s (Oladipo will be playing SG) but this over/under on this game is sitting at 214 right now, with DAL -5.  There’s going to be lots of points to go around and even if Hezonja somehow doesn’t make value, he’ll be so highly owned, it won’t affect you much when it comes to cashing.  For example, 68% of people in my cash games last night owned Will Barton, so his underwhelming performance had little affect on me.

Also, if Aaron Afflalo is out again, Langston Galloway is a great play against the Blazers for only $4300 on DK and $4100 on FD.

Small Forward

Mike Dunleavy Jr (DK $4300, FD $3900, 17.2 USG)

Derrick Rose is expected to come back tonight which essentially hurts the value of most Bulls we’ve been using the last week but I believe it does very little to hurt MDJ.  With Dunleavy, his minutes will be more solidified as the year goes on and he’s playing around 28 as of late.  He’s a huge part of what Fred Hoiberg wants to do on offense and does a little more than just hit 3’s.  If anything, Rose’s return should actually help Dunleavy as the defense will have to collapse the paint more when Rose drives, leaving MDJ open for more shots.  Also as an added bonus, the signing of Joe Johnson in Miami means Dunleavy gets to avoid Deng and Winslow defense for a lot of this game.  Joe on the other hand, is slow footed and one of the worst wing defenders in the league.  The Nets gave up 106.8 points per 100 possessions whenever Johnson was on the court, which is why this signing still makes little sense to me for Miami.

Power Forward

David Lee (DK $4000, FD $4500, 21.1 USG)

I was really skeptical on David Lee in Dallas’ last game against the Timberwolves.  I believed the game against Denver was an outlier because Dallas wanted to match up with Denver’s small ball lineups and Lee fit perfectly.  Against Minnesota, I saw no reason he’d see extended run against the front court of KAT and Dieng.  I didn’t account for early garbage time and Lee ended up seeing 22 minutes for 30.8 DKPTS.  Against the Magic though, Lee matches up fine.  I could see him on the court whenever Skiles throws out lineups with Ilyasova or Smith, meaning another 20+ minute night isn’t unlikely.  We’ve harped on this before but Lee produces when given minutes.  Even at the age of 32, he’s averaging over a fantasy point per min so for $4000, you can do a lot worse but personally, my value will be coming from elsewhere tonight.  Still hard to trust Lee in his new role.

Center

Alex Len (DK $5200, FD $5200, 19.2 USG)

Quick little story:  I play Alex Len a lot when he starts so the other night when he was listed as the starter, I didn’t get the update cause I was working and was stuck with Enes Kanter in my lineups when OKC was playing GS.  If I had gotten the news before I had clocked in, I could have easily made the swap (Len was $100 less than Kanter).  Of course, Len blew up for 50 DKPTS and Kanter was held to 15.75.  I did the math and looked at the standings.  If Len was my starting center that night, I would have scored a total of 372 DKPTS which would have won me a 3rd place prize of $8500 in the $225K Crossover that night.  Instead, I won $60.  True story.

That should be enough to convince you that there’s no way in hell I’m making the same mistake twice tonight.  Earl Watson has admitted that the Suns will be going with the 2 center approach for the next few games to see how it works out.  Len is also one of those guys that can get you a fantasy point per minute (he averaged 1.2 FPPM for the month of FEB).  Now he gets to play PF against a Hornets team that gives up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing PF’s.  As long as he plays over 30 minutes, he’s money.  In the 8 games he’s played over 30 minutes this year, he’s averaging 36.19 DKPTS.  For only $5200, there’s no reason to look anywhere cheaper.

Featured Image Credit: By Chris Green (Chrisg21090 at en.wikipedia) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Chris Fedail

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