Tony Parker (DK $4800, FD $5000, 21.1 USG) – The withdrawals were real. You don’t know what you got till it’s gone, which is why I’m so happy to be writing about NBA DFS again. After a weeklong All-Star break, the NBA returns tonight with a horrid 3 game slate but hey, beggers can’t be choosers. We’ll start with Tony Parker. I’m assuming here that the Spurs are all well rested and expected to play. If that’s the case, Parker is a great value play to target tonight. He tends to play well against the Clips, scoring 29.7 DKPTS, 27.7 FDPTS in their first meeting this year and averaging 33.2 DKPTS, 31.1 FDPTS against them last year. Maybe the Spurs get a little more run than usual with the break behind them now and with them being only 3 point favorites, no need to worry about a blowout.
Danny Green (DK $4700, FD $4500, 15.1 USG) – I wrote up Danny Green right before the break and he didn’t disappoint. He’s just not as terrible as he was over the first two months, which is why people are still scared to roster him. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged 25.6 DKPTS with some huge games hidden in there. His threes are starting to fall, which is huge for DK purposes and his peripherals are coming around as well, averaging 5.2 rebounds over his last 10. With Manu still out, his minutes are secure and as mentioned above, the spread suggest this game should be close.
Doug McDermott (DK $3300, FD $3600, 16.4 USG) – I’m not gonna sit here and recommend McBuckets to you with a straight face but that’s what this three game slate has us looking at for value. I don’t feel comfortable rostering any of these guys under the 5K range. Wesley Johnson or Paul Pierce against Kawhi? No thanks. Dudley against the Jazz bigs? Pass. So we’re left with McDermott or MDJ against the Cavs. Dunleavy still seems to be on a minutes limit, meaning Dougie is all we’re left with. With the Bulls being so short-handed, McDermott has been seeing plenty of minutes (averaging 35 over his last 2 games). The matchup against LeBron and the Cavs is definitely not in his favor, as CLE allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to SF. It’s comical just thinking of him chasing LeBron around to be honest, but one thing he does have in his favor potentially is garbage time. Currently the Cavs are 12 points favorites, which is the widest of any game tonight by far. With the way the Bulls have been playing minus Jimmy Butler and Niko Mirotic, this spread seems a bit too kind.
Bobby Portis (DK $4400, FD $3900, 21.9 USG) – If Pau Gasol or Taj Gibson gets traded before the deadline, Portis will become as must play as it gets. But even if the team stays put, Portis is the only value I see reasonable at the PF position. Much like McDermott, he would benefit if this game were to get ugly. But unlike McDermott, we’ve seen Portis produce big numbers when given the green light with all those extra minutes. Even if the game somehow stays close, Portis has been seeing playing time regardless. He’s played 20 or more minutes in 6 straight and averaging 23.15 DKPTS over his last 4. Again, the matchup against the Cavs is not enticing (3rd in DvP) but we’ve kinda got our hands tied tonight unless a trade really opens things up.
Tim Duncan (DK $5000, FD $5800, 17.4 USG) – Duncan is another one of those guys that is here by default because it’s the lowest I’m willing to go. But with Duncan, he’s actually a fine play regardless of the ‘default’ tag. Assuming he’s healthy and well rested, I can see him being very productive against a Clippers team that’s 22nd in DvP. Hard to believe at the age of 39, Duncan is still a fantasy point per minute player (1.02). In the one game against the Clippers earlier this year, Duncan scored 27.25 DKPTS in just under 30 minutes. I don’t wanna get my hopes up because this is Popovich we’re putting our faith in here, but if this game stays close and Duncan can somehow see closer to 30 minutes rather than 20, he should reach and exceed value with ease. On FD though, his price tag is a little harder to swallow. I’d do whatever I could to spend an extra $1100 roll with Gortat.
Featured Image Credit: By Chris Green (Chrisg21090 at en.wikipedia) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons