Trey Burke (DK $4400, $4700, 24.9 USG) – Raul Neto (concussion) has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Hornets, which should earn Burke the start and give him all the minutes he can handle. The only healthy PG the Jazz have on the roster besides Burke is newly signed Erick Green. He averages 30.15 DKPTS/27.90 FDPTS per 36 but that number reflects his role as the backup PG. As a starter, he’ll be sharing shots with Gordon, Hood and Favors so I wouldn’t expect him to shoot his usual 24.4 FGA per 100 possessions. Nonetheless, he’s still an offensive minded PG likely to see about 34 minutes of action. Since Jan 1, Burke is averaging .77 fantasy points per minute without Neto on the floor, which has me projecting him to score 26.18 points (5.2 X’s value). So yeah, I’m not expecting him to go off or anything. Just think he’s a very solid source of value.
Update: Raul Neto has been cleared to play. Trey Burke is not an appealing option anymore. On DK, I’d pivot to Zach LaVine for $100 more. On FD, Goodwin is the play.
Archie Goodwin (DK $4800, FD $4100, 22.9 USG) – On DK, just plug him in and move along. Goodwin is PG eligible on FD and is nearly a must play at only $4100 over there but with SG being so thin, I consider him almost as much of a must play on DK where you can roster him at SG. It’s the same story you’ve read here and everywhere else since Brandon Knight went down. Goodwin is getting ridiculous run with Knight out (foul trouble was an issue last night) and should see close to 36 minutes against the Cavs (he plays in garbage time, so I wouldn’t fear the blowout factor). Averaging 37.7 DKPTS over his last three starts, he’s giving you production of a player that should be priced over 7K. Don’t get cute with this. He was over 90% owned in cash last night against Philly and although I don’t expect the percentages to be that high tonight (people will be scared of the matchup), I’d still expect him to be the chalk because of how weak the position is.
Shabazz Muhammad (DK $4700, FD $4200, 21.6 USG) – One of my favorite games to target on the night. With the Thunder playing the second end of a back to back after an overtime win in NY last night and traveling to MIN, the spread is a respectable -7 (OKC) with an attractive over/under of 210.5. It’s the highest expected scoring contest that has a single digit point spread (Nuggets/Celtics has crept up to -10 on some sites). Kevin Martin and Kevin Garnett are both doubtful which helps sort this rotation out somewhat, as the Wolves usually love to play over 10 of their guys. Against CLE on Mon with both out, they only played 9 players, which is very unlike the Wolves. It helped solidify the minutes of guys like Muhammad (26 min) and LaVine (30 min), which is pretty huge for DFS purposes as both guys like to chuck it when playing (Muhammad 19.1 FGA per 100 pos, LaVine 23.4 FGA per 100 pos). In the two games the Wolves have played the Thunder, Bazz is averaging 34 minutes (28.5 and 19 DKPTS).
Dwight Powell (DK $3300, FD $3500, 18.5 USG) – This recommendation is half logic, half gut call. I’ll preface it by saying I’d much rather roster someone like David West against the Rockets with Duncan being out again for cash games. But for tourneys, give Powell a look. The Mavericks are going into tonight’s game against the Warriors waiving the white flag resting both Dirk and Zaza (maybe more to be named later). The Warriors are 18 point favorites at home. We’ve seen what they’ve done to teams like the Cavs, Spurs and Bulls over the last week and this could be even uglier. Having said that, without the Mavs starting big men, they’ll likely be starting Charlie V and Salah Mejri again meaning Powell should be the first big off the bench and likely the main beneficiary of garbage time once this gets out of hand. Powell averages .96 fantasy points per min playing without Dirk and Zaza, so if he gets anywhere close to 25 minutes, you’re looking at a guy who might reach 8 X’s value priced around minimum salary. He’s burned a lot of us recently but a lot of that was our fault, rostering him in games where only one of Dirk/Zaza sat out. In the games he played 30 minutes or more against NO and OKC, both were out and he scored 37.5 and 25.3 DKPTS. The matchup against GS is obviously a different kind of monster but once garbage time hits, you can throw out all the stats and analytics.
Boban Marjanovic (DK $3600, FD $3700, 27.2 USG) – Ok, so I think I got it. We roster Boban ONLY when Duncan is out AND when the Spurs are large favorites, right?. So let’s look at tonight: Tim Duncan out? Check! Spurs large favorites? Check!
I really believe the Spurs are going to come out swinging haymakers tonight against the Rockets after being embarrassed by GS on national TV Monday night. If you’re like me and assume the blowout is a given, there’s no reason not to roster Boban. His price is up just a tad but even that cheap, he’ll only need about 15 minutes to reach 5 X’s value. Averaging 1.35 FPPM since Jan 1 without Duncan, 15 minutes projects him to score 20.25 points (5.6 X’s value). I don’t think I can trust Hawes and Len tonight for cash, given their really tough matchups so I’m likely to look a tier below.