Wow week 16, we’re already here. It’s been great guys. Lets finish this season on a high note with more profit. This is the last viable week of fantasy for sane people as I mentioned here before, but we still need to worry about motivation for some teams. There are a lot of juicy team totals to target this week.
Vanilla Chalk(Cash Game Plays)
($7,500) Cam Newton @ ATL -Over/Under: 47.5 Team Total: 27.25 Spread: -7
Cam is fully motivated to run the table and is chasing history. You can bet he’ll come out firing ready to run the score up similar to week 14’s 38-0 dehumanizing of the Falcons. He is averaging 32.2 fantasy points over his last three.
($6,500) DeAngelo Williams @ BAL –Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 28.75 Spread: -10.5
There are not a lot of running backs I love this week and DeAngelo Williams has a high usage and secure role in the most potent offense in the NFL. Although the match up is not perfect, Charcandrick West was able to produce fairly well vs the Raven’s front. With the red zone and goal line work in the bag, with the amount of times per game the Steelers find themselves beyond the opponent’s 20, you can pretty much lock in DeAngelo for 80 all purpose yards and a touchdown with upside for a lot more.
($9,300) Antonio Brown @ BAL -Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 28.75 Spread: -10.5
The Steelers are still vying for a playoff spot and will be fully motivated to win this one and run up the score per usual. Antonio Brown is the main beneficiary of this offense and is on fire, scoring over 32 Fan Duel fantasy points in four of his last six games.
($6,800) Ben Roethlisberger @ BAL -Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 28.75 Spread: -10.5
The Ravens stop the run decently allowing the 11th most rush yards per game, but surrender the 7th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Ben should shine in this spot. He scored 30.7 fantasy points on the Broncos, league leading defense for crying out loud.
($6,500) Blake Bortles @ NO -Over/Under: 51.5 Team Total: 24 Spread: 3.5
I am not sure which Jaguar pass catcher will go off, but I’m pretty sure one will. So, I’m going to access this nice 24 point team total in a shootout with the guy manning the helm. Blake Bortles has the best match up of all quarterbacks this week. New Orleans allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the league.
($5,700) Michael Crabtree vs SD -Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 26 Spread: -5.5
The Raiders have a nice team total of 26. I think Jason Verrett will be on Amari Cooper a good amount of time and Crabtree will soak up some extra looks. The Crab always provides upside with his heavy red zone usage.
($5,000) Antonio Gates @ OAK -Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 20.5 Spread: 5.5
Gates has seen 9-8-9 targets in his last three games, but we haven’t seen him break out with a big game. This is the week in a possible shootout with the Raiders. This has the feel of a 6 catch 85 yard two touchdown performance.
($5,800) David Johnson vs GB -Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 27 Spread: -4.5
This is not the best match up, but his role is so secure and he is a beast in the passing game. The Green Bay defensive rushing dominance has lessened of late surrendering at least 100 yards on the ground to opposing rushers in all of the last three games including a 111 yards performance by Darren McFadden. The high team total and spread bode well for Johnson having a big day.
($5,300)Ben Watson -Over/Under: 51.5 Team Total:27.5 Spread: -3.5
Ben Watson is producing week after week with 10 or more fantasy points in each of his last three and has become a secure cash game target that receives high target numbers. He has had eight or more looks in each of the last four games.
($7,300) Adrian Peterson vs NYG -Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 24.25 Spread: -4
If you are paying up at running back this week there is only one way to go. We had a scare last week with Peterson’s ankle which seemed to lessen his workload the rest of the day. We know how the Vikings want to score points and that’s through AP. The spread is a positive indicator for Peterson’s workload.
Indiana Jones (GPP Plays)
($5,000)DeSean Jackson @ PHI -Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 22.5 Spread:3
It’s revenge game time for DJax and with the way the Philadelphia secondary is playing, this couldn’t be a more peachy situation. Finally being involved in the offensive plan heavily, averaging 6.3 targets per game over his last three, look for DeSean to take a bomb to the house, and no it isn’t a clock. Jackson is always a GPP only play, but I especially love his upside in this situation.
($4,000)Spencer Ware vs CLE – Over/Under: 42.5 Team Total: 27.5 Spread: -12.5
This is off the wall. I will start with that. When we attack DFS, we are using vegas lines to attempt to capture as many points as we can in the highest scoring match ups. Well here we are with the Chiefs having a generous total of 27.5. The red zone back in this offense is clearly Ware, when healthy, and I think he will resume that role this week after not playing a snap week 15 and hopefully returning to health. I think this game is a LeGarrette Blount like game situation where the Chiefs get the ball in the redzone and Ware just hammers the ball in repeatedly finishing with 20 yards three touchdowns. He will be incredibly low owned and this is a very risky GPP ONLY option.
($3,500) Rueben Randle @ MIN – Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 20.25 Spread: 4
The football populace is up in arms about the OBJ situation acting as the two cent, offended culture we have come to be. I’m not going to get caught up in the hub bub, instead I’m going to try to profit off of it. With OBJ and his 15+ targets per game suspended, Reuben Randle becomes the de facto number one wide receiver in the offense. Those targets have to go somewhere and with the spread suggesting the Giants will be playing from behind I don’t see anyway Randle doesn’t get at least 10 targets.