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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cheap Advice 12/4/15

daily fantasy basketball advice


Point Guard

Matthew Dellavedova ($4500, 14.2 USG) – From Cleveland.com

In an attempt to improve defensively and to prepare for the eventual return of Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert, the change being considered is at the backcourt positions, league sources informed Cleveland.com.

There you have it.  Might as well just lock Delly into your lineups now.  All signs are pointing to Dellavedova replacing Mo Williams in the Cavs starting lineup tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans, a team we love targeting.  Even if this only means an extra 5 or 6 minutes of playing time, it should be worth it.  New Orleans is bottom 5 in almost every major statistical defensive category (dead last in Def Eff at 108.7).  Delly’s already averaging 27.2 mpg so we’re hoping he creeps into the 30’s with this news.  Playing better than he ever has in his short career, he’s averaging 5.6 apg and shooting .427% from three.  Cleveland has an implied team total of 106.5 (and only a 5 point favorite), which is actually a bit high for them so there will be points to spread around.

If you wish to go cheaper, take a look at Raymond Felton again. 

[Play the NBA $275K SHARPSHOOTER tonight on DraftKings! Only $3 to enter. ]

Shooting Guard

Wesley Matthews ($4600, 18.7 USG) – I really believe this will be the last week we’re going to be able to roster Matthews at under $5000.  He’s slowly creeping up there in salary and his production has been a steady, safe source of fantasy points for us.  Look at his playing time over the last week.  With the exception of the blowout against Denver on Sat (Dallas rested their starters the entire 4th quarter), Wes has played 36, 36 and 40 minutes.  That’s Jimmy Butler territory.  He may not be the same defensively, as he’s still trying to regain his lateral quickness rehabbing from his achilles injury but he still knows how to spot up and hit open shots (making 2.1 three pointers per game).  Dallas has an implied team total of 107.5, which is the highest of the night so the Mavs are team you should consider targeting when constructing your rosters.

Small Forward

Jared Dudley ($3800, 11.7 USG) – A cash game staple for all my lineups tonight and I’m not even considering otherwise unless some last minute news breaks.  Let’s do a quick copy and paste below and you’ll understand what I’m talking about.

From J. Michael 

“I expect to play everything,” said Dudley, who has played a season-high 32 minutes in the last two games. “To be able to play 40-plus (minutes), we only got three bigs so for me, a lot of guards, a lot of pick-and-rolls, my value being up in the picks. … We’re all going to play depending on how well you play you can play more. If those guys get into foul trouble I might not have no choice. It could be one of those games where you play 45. You just don’t know. The good thing is they’re small, too.”

See my point here?  There’s a high likelihood that the Wizards are going to be without Gortat, Nene, Gooden and Humphries tonight.  They’re literally going to just be left with Ryan Hollins (starting at center tonight) and Jared Dudley.  The Wizards are going to play a whole lot of small ball so I actually believe Dudley when he says he could play 40 minutes tonight.  This is the game of the night that’s going to be loaded with the value gems.  So may injuries on both sides of the ball and a high over/under of 212.  Phoenix will be playing without Tyson Chandler hamstring) for the 4th straight game and Markieff Morris (knee) is still listed as questionable to expect the Suns to play a lot of small ball themselves.  I’m going to be having so much exposure to this game tonight.  It’ll allow me to play all 3 of Wall, Harden and Davis  (a strategy that worked very well for me a couple days ago)

My favorite value plays in order for this game would be: 1) Len 2) Dudley 3) Leuer 4) Teletovic 5) Hollins (I’m not touching Hollins tonight)

Power Forward

Terrance Jones ($4900, 19.6 USG) – Leuer is the obvious play here if Morris sits again but just to change things up, let’s take a look at Terrance Jones now that he’s priced under $5000 for the first time in a bit.  I think the majority of the love will go to Clint Capela tonight but don’t forget that Jones enters the starting lineup alongside Capela when Dwight Howard sits. The Mavericks are 26th in DvP against power forwards and are the 22nd worst rebounding team in the league.  Jones’ PER 36 numbers are still encouraging (15.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.5 blocks) so if he gets anywhere near the 30 minutes I would expect him to get, he should produce a near double double.  Prior to his last game against the Pelicans where he scored 28 DK points, he’s been very underwhelming but the matchup and opportunity are in his favor tonight and playing in a game that has an over/under of 209.5.  I don’t think enough people are on him, making him a great tourney play.

Center

Alex Len ($3800, 18.00 USG) – I wanted to change things up here as well only because we’ve mentioned Len so many times already but I can’t, due to the lack of any other enticing cheaper options for tonight’s slate.

Over the last week, it seems like we’ve been trying to figure out if it’s either going to be Len game or a Leuer game (with Chandler being out) and failing every time. So here’s what I’m gonna do tonight:  I’m playing both (if Morris is out).  I think people are overthinking the last game against Detroit just a bit.  Leuer was the one that exploded for 42 DK points, but I think Len could have had just as nice of a game if he wasn’t in the foul trouble that we all were worried about to begin with, going up against Andre Drummond. He only played 15 min and still managed to score 15.8 DK points (pretty much a fantasy point per minute).  So, let’s take a look on the other side of the court tonight and what do we see? Jared Dudley and Ryan Hollins.  Do either of those guys scare you into think Len could be battling foul trouble again tonight?  Not one bit.  Both teams play at such a fast pace (PHO 1st overall, WAS 3rd overall) so expect lots of everything.  You’re looking at a Len/Leuer stack that will cost you $7900 total and expecting 39.5 DK points combined for them to reach value.  Both have shown in the last couple of games that each can do that alone.  Imagine the possibilities.

As mentioned earlier, I’m not even thinking of playing Ryan Hollins even at the bare minimum ($3000).  We preach minutes and opportunity here all the time but I just can’t trust him at all.  Against the Lakers, he scored 0.8 DK points in 11 minutes!  Yes, against the Lakers.  Maybe it bites me in the ass, but I believe Hollins is pure fools gold. 

Featured Image Credit: By Chris Green (Chrisg21090 at en.wikipedia) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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