Another great week in the books. More plays, more lineups, more profit. It was nice to double dip with Turkey day and regular Sunday slates and it has me feeling like there won’t be enough of my time absorbed by Football this week. Well, we only have the standard slates available this week, poor us.
As we traverse the last week of the regular season in redraft leagues we prepare for the stretch run in DFS, in the last viable month of fantasy. Week 17 is for insane individuals. That said, I will be participating.
The chalk plays are less obvious than usual for the most part this week and I think we will see more lineup differentiation than usual. The pricing this week sets up for balanced roster construction contrary to last week’s value running backs paired with stud wide receivers strategy.
Vanilla Chalk(Cash Games)
($7,400) Cam Newton @ NO – Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 28.25 Spread: -7
Combine the top fantasy quarterback on the season and the weakest defense in the NFL and you have yourself a great play. New Orleans allows the second most pass yards per game and the second most fantasy points to the position. Cam Newton is the overall quarterback 2 on the season and is on fire averaging 24.5 fantasy points over his last four. The high team total is an extreme positive.
($6,400)Greg Olsen @ NO – Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 28.25 Spread: -7
I understand I am not getting creative here and have mentioned him here many times — but he always comes through and is a cash game staple. He is averaging 12.8 fantasy points per game and is the go to cash game play with Rob Gronkowski doubtful to play this Sunday. Greg Olsen’s ownership will be alarming this week with Gronk out. The Saints allow the most fantasy points to tight ends in the league.
($9,000) Julio Jones @ TB – Over/Under: 46 Team Total: 22 Spread: 2
The second most targeted and number two wide receiver in fantasy points on the season has a decent match up in Tampa Bay as a bottom half pass defense. Matt Ryan has been struggling, but where else will the ball go? Devonta Freeman should help power the offense and positively effect Julio. I like Julio to bounce back and right the ship for a big afternoon this Sunday.
($3,900) Arizona @ STL – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 23.75 Spread: -5.5
Typically it is better to play defenses at home, but the Cardinal’s defense is in the best spot this week vs the Nick Foles/Case Keenum band, who should be unable to move the ball and turn it over.
($5,600) DeAngelo Williams vs IND – Over/Under: 49 Team Total: 27.75 Spread: -6.5
This usage monster has a great matchup this week. He has 29, 18, and 15 touches as the starter with 36.5, 6.9, and 17.7 fantasy points respectively. Hosting a 4.9 yard per carry rate in a resurgent year and in the most potent offense in the NFL as the feature back, D Will is a top 3 play going forward. It helps the week that Indianapolis allows the eighth most fantasy points to the position and is a bottom ten unit in rush yards allowed per game. DeAngelo is my number one running back play of the week regardless of price. The high implied team total as well as the large near touch down spread bodes well for DeAngelo’s outlook this week.
($5,700) Delanie Walker vs JAC – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 22.75 Spread: -2.5
Walker has 10 and 8 targets in his last two and is the lead target for his team on a weekly basis. I like to target tight ends in this role, obviously. Jacksonville surrenders the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends.
($5,400) Thomas Rawls @ MIN – Over/Under: 41.5 Team Total: 21.25 Spread: -1
The Vikings are a bottom half run defense in yards allowed per game. This match up doesn’t scare me a bit. As the starter Rawls has had 33 and 21 touches, and I expect his workload this week somewhere near the median of those two. If he gets in the end zone it’ll be a big day.
($6,900) Alshon Jeffery @ SF – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 25 Spread: -7
In the past four games Alshon was healthy he has had 11, 15, 15, and 11 targets. San Francisco allows the sixth most fantasy points to the position. I feel like Alshon is somewhat undervalued at his price due to his immense workload. The Bears have a nice team total of 25 this week and the 49ers have been stopping the run decently lately, so I expect these points to come through the air.
($5,300) Darren McFadden @ WAS – Over/Under: 42 Team Total: 19 Spread: 4
Darren McFadden’s touches since he became the starter are 31, 26, 28, 20, 32, and 15. The Cowboys were a mess last week and will move back to the ground game assuredly with Matt Cassel back at the helm. Washington allows the sixth most yards on the ground per game at 126.6.
Indiana Jones Plays(GPP)
($5,200)Ryan Fitzpatrick @ NYG – Over/Under: 45 Team Total: 23.25 Spread: -1.5
Facing the Giants, quarterbacks have thrown for 300 yards in three of the last four games. They allow the second most fantasy points to the position and the most pass yards per game in the league at 309.9 per game. The New York Giant’s front is far superior to their secondary. Passing is how you beat them and that is the game plan I expect from the Jets.
($7,100) Brandon Marshall @ NYG – Over/Under: 45 Team Total: 23.25 Spread: -1.5
The Giants surrender the 11th most fantasy points to wide outs. Marshall is the sixth most targeted wide receiver this season and is tied for the lead at his position with nine touch downs. I love this spot for Marshall and expect an enormous day from him.
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