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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cheap Advice 11/30/15

Chris Fedail lists his value picks and daily fantasy basketball advice for tournaments on DraftKings.

daily fantasy basketball advice


Point Guard

Jerryd Bayless ($4900, 18.2 USG) – Jason Kidd removed a struggling Michael Carter Williams from the Bucks starting lineup yesterday and replaced him with Jerryd Bayless. Bayless is quietly having his best season in years. His 14.1 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is his highest it’s been since 2011-2012 and he’s shooting a career best .459 3P%. Here’s the thing though; Bayless was already getting quality minutes as the backup to MCW, but in his first start on Sunday, he played an insane 43 minutes (Greivis Vasquez was out) in a game that didn’t even go into overtime! I doubt he plays that again in the second half of a back to back but it’s still something you’d be foolish to ignore. I love the matchup against Emmanuel Mudiay (turns the ball over 3.9 times per game) and a Nuggets team that’s ranked 28th in defense vs position.

[Play the NBA $250K SHARPSHOOTER tournament on DraftKings tonight]

Shooting Guard

Wes Matthews ($4400, 19.1 USG) – Speaking of DvP, the Sacramento Kings are absolutely brutal at defending Shooting Guards (29th out of 30) dating back to last year. They give up an average of 44.9 DK points per game which is second to only Brooklyn. Matthews has been playing quality minutes lately (at least 32 mpg in 5 out of his last 7) which is a good sign that he maybe completely healed from his surgically repaired Achilles. This also looks to be the most fantasy friendly game to target on the night. With a high over/under of 214 and a small spread (DAL -1.5), I’ll be having lots of exposure to this game (RONDO REVENGE GAME!). I also like O.J. Mayo tonight a bit (only $4000) if starting in place of Parker again. Everyone will be on Gerald Green (also only $4000 and starting) but the matchup against Avery Bradley scares me off a little.
Small Forward

Omri Casspi ($4900, 18.1 USG) – As already mentioned, I’ll be having a whole lot of exposure to this game tonight. The most important story to follow throughout the day is the status of Boogie Cousins. He went through shootaround today, but is still listed as questionable. If the Kings play it safe and choose to sit Cousins for his 4th straight game, Casspi becomes a nice bargain play averaging 27.7 DK points in the last 3 games with Cousins out. His ceiling is relatively low (only 3 games all year with over 30 DK points) but he’s got a high floor when given the opportunity. Casspi is playing the most minutes of his career (26.3 MP) and shooting .456 3P% (also a career best). Also worth mentioning, George Karl opted to go with a smaller starting lineup against the Warriors on Sat inserting Casspi at the 3. I don’t see a scenario where that changes against a smaller Dallas front court. But yeah, this pick mostly hinges on the status of DeMarcus Cousins. A nice pivot off of Omri would be Justice Winslow if Cousins were to suit up. Winslow has been playing a lot of minutes with Luol Deng sidelined.

Power Forward

Josh McRoberts ($3000, 11.4 USG) Udonis Haslem ($3000, 17.0 USG) – I wouldn’t suggest going cheap here tonight (try and fit Blake in). The value is really watered down near the bottom of the power forward position. This is purely a gut call and also a play that only holds merit if Chris Bosh were to sit (he missed shootaround today with an illness, listed as questionable). It’s either going to be Haslem or McRoberts if Bosh sits. Boston gives up the 4th most points to opposing PF’s (50.1 DK ppg) so the matchup is there, but it’s really hard to trust either one of the two. I know this is gonna sound like ‘Captain Obvious’ speaking, but I’d play the starter and hope for the best. Truth is, they’re both the bare minimum so having either one of them into your lineup won’t kill you if they underperform.

Center

Meyers Leonard ($4200, 14.9 USG) – Center is also a position that I prefer paying up for tonight with even the best of value plays both being priced over $5000 (Capela and Koufos). If you truly want to punt the position, try and gain some trust that Meyers Leonard is over his shoulder injury that cost him 7 games. Terry Scotts elected to start Noah Vonleh on Saturday but Leonard still played more than him. I suspect he enters the starting lineup again in the near future, maybe as soon as tonight. Much like Casspi, Leonard’s ceiling isn’t very high (only scoring more than 27 DK points once all year) but he’s reached value in 5 straight games, only averaging only 24 minutes in that span. Still, I’d try to spend an extra $900 and target Capela (starting next to Dwight now) or Koufos (if Boogie sits).

Featured Image Credit: By photo taken by flickr user ReneS (flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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