Vanilla Chalk (Cash Game)
($9,100)DeAndre Hopkins vs NO – Over/Under: 47.5 Team Total: 25.25 Spread: -3
DeAndre Hopkins showed out this past Sunday vs Darrelle Revis and co with 118 yards and two touch downs on five receptions in the ultimate contrarian spot. He is the target leader with 135 looks.Hopkins travels to the other side of the fantasy spectrum this week and turns right back into a chalk cash game play. Houston is expected to trail according to the spread suggesting many passes for the Texans. The team total is a positive as well.
($7,300) Adrian Peterson @ ATL – Over/Under: 46 Team Total: 21.5 Spread: 2.5
Last week was certainly a let down for AP, which makes him a perfect target this week. Atlanta allows the seventh most fantasy points to the position and Peterson has had at least 20 touches in each of the 8 previous games.
($2,000)Cleveland Browns vs BAL – Over/Under: 41 Team Total: 21.75 Spread: -2.5
Two words Matt Schaub. In his 16 starts across 2013 and 2014 he threw 16 interceptions and 10 touch downs. We want our plays to have defensive touch downs and Mr. Pick six himself is going to deliver us to the holy land.
($5,800) Allen Hurns vs SD– Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 25.25 Spread: -4
Blake Bortles loves Allen Hurns and I expect the talented Charger corner Jason Verrett to be on Allen Robinson. This makes for w perfect spot for Hurns who draws similar target numbers to Robinson and will be seeing softer coverage.
($5,400) Delanie Walker vs OAK– Over/Under: 44 Team Total: 21 Spread: 2
Earlier in the season tight ends vs the Raiders were plug and play and they statistically are still bottom two against the position in fantasy points allowed. I think we retouch bases with that strategy this week, with Delanie Walker being the number one target for the first round rookie in the passing game.
($8,700) Odell Beckham @ WAS – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 24.25 Spread: -2
After the bye week Beckham is arguably the top play on the board across all positions. I see this game as a shootout and the Giants side of the ball is easy to predict in the passing game. They’re throwing to OBJ.
($6,500) Eli Manning @ WAS – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 24.25 Spread: -2
Eli Manning is my premier play at quarterback this week on a point per dollar basis and he is close to being number one straight up. Washington has been getting demolished lately ceding at least two passing touchdowns the last 5 weeks including Cam Newton‘s four touch down destruction last week. It helps that the Giant’s run game is abysmal.
($9,400) Julio Jones vs MIN – Over/Under: 46 Team Total: 24.25 Spread: -2.5
Now I know what you’re thinking. This guy is recommending the top 3 priced wide receivers, of course they’re good plays. Well, true, but all three of these guys are in exceptional spots and are worth paying up for this week. I like Julio the third best, but I will have a ton of shares.
($5,800) Doug Martin @ IND – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 21.75 Spread: 3
Davonta Freeman had a strong rushing start to his Sunday this past week vs Indy only to have his day derailed by concussion ruining roughly 30% of lineups across the industry. Let’s go back to the Colts and target them once again with the Huggernaut coming off of a 27 attempt, 235 yard monster of a game vs a unit that allows a bottom five mark in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This is the workload Martin attains when the Bucs are playing from ahead which I expect to be the case this week against the Matt Hassleback led Colts, contrary to the spread.
($3,000) Cincinnati Bengals Defense vs STL – Over/Under: 42 Team Total: 25.5 Spread: -9
The talented Bengals defense is at home and facing Case Keenum who was less than passable 12 completions on 26 attempts for 136 yards a touchdown and three fumbles. Yes, three. I’m calling a defensive touchdown this week for the Bengals D.
($5,100) Jordan Reed vs NYG – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 22.25 Spread: 2
Kirk Cousins favorite option in the passing game and target leader week to week is Jordan Reed. The New York secondary has been getting roasted left and right regularly and they allow the third most fantasy points to tight ends.
Indiana Jones Plays (GPP)
($5,400) Kirk Cousins vs NYG – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 22.25 Spread: 2
This game is the shootout of the week and I think both sides of the ball are excellent plays in what projects to be a high scoring affair with voluminous pass attempts. He is a great salary saver that allows you to pay up at other positions.
($5,500) Marcus Mariota vs OAK – Over/Under: 44 Team Total: 21 Spread: 2
After an eye-opening four touchdown performance in his NFL debut, Mariota has been up and down with 5 weeks scoring under 15 fantasy points and topping 20 just twice all year. I like this spot for a blowup vs the Raiders pass defense, hemorrhaging the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers and the third most average pass yards per game at 290.5. He makes for an excellent tournament play, but not safe for cash games.
($4,500) Thomas Rawls vs PIT – Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 24.5 Spread: -4.5
Yes, I understand Pittsburgh is the best run stopping unit in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to half backs and top 5 in yards allowed per game on the ground, but Rawls is special. He received 30 carries and I’d bet he springs one this Sunday on one of those many carries.
You’ll be singing like Lou Rawls when he busts this game open at a low ownership percentage. The high team total and spread bodes well for Rawl’s fantasy outlook.