Vanilla Chalk(Cash Games)
($6,900)Cam Newton vs WAS – Over/Under: 45.5 Team Total: 26.25 Spread: -7
This will be the chalkiest quarterback play this week and for good reason. Not many top tier quarterbacks have been dependable the last two weeks, and you can’t just plug Brady in there like most weeks with him facing the Buffalo Bills. Cam is averaging 26.1 Fantasy points per game tied for the second best in the league and has an incredible match up in Washington.
($6,200)Greg Olsen vs WAS – Over/Under: 45.5 Team Total: 26.25 Spread: -7
This guy never disappoints and as long as Cam Newton is firing on all cylinders you can bet his number one target will be producing. I am going to hammer this guy home until he lets me down, which I don’t expect to happen. It is hard to pay up for Gronk, especially on FanDuel, with his $8,400 price tag this week. Save 2K and lock in Olsen for 15 points at least.
($8,400)Devonta Freeman vs IND – Over/Under: 47.5 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: -6
We have not had a Devonta Freeman sighting week in a while, which is very surprising. The masses will turn to Gurley this week as he is becoming the best fantasy option in any backfield on a consistent basis. I like Freeman better this week. The defensive struggles in the run department for Indianapolis are well documented and they statistically rank as a bottom half defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position and rush yards allowed per game. Freeman still has 20, 27, and 27 touches in his last three games and I like him to explode this week with a few touchdowns with a favorable team total.
($4,500)Charcandrick West @ SD – Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 23.75 Spread: -3
He did what vs the Broncos defense?! He faces who this week?! Yes, Mr. two touchdowns 161 yards from scrimmage is facing the Swiss cheese San Diego front. Said group allows the most fantasy points in the league to running backs. He has one of my he largest workloads week to week and the most secure role in the league in Jamaal Charles wake. He is practically a free spot on DraftKings at $4,500.
($6,100)Chris Ivory @ HOU – Over/Under: 41 Team Total: 22.25 Spread: -2.5
This game sets up perfect for Chris Ivory to get voluminous workloads playing from ahead. He gashed the talented Bills defense for 99 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards, looking powerful and running with purpose. Ivory comes to Houston where fantasy points are passed out to running backs like Halloween candy with the Texans allowing the eighth most FanDuel points to running backs. It may help Ivory’s workload that Zac Stacy will not play the rest of the season due to a broken ankle.
($6,000)Michael Crabtree@ DET – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 25 Spread: -2
It is hard for me to target Amari Cooper at his price point due to his receiving similar targets to Crabtree and drawing the number one corner week to week while the Crab works against number twos. Crabtree is my cheap way of having a share of a newly productive offense under Derek Carr at a cheap price tag week to week. This week is an exceptionally good one to have a piece of this passing offense with Detroit allowing a bottom 10 mark in pass yards per game at 260. We tried to use this weakness in the secondary last week to produce fantasy points, but Randall Cobb did just not get it done with the Packer’s offense looking inept. Lunacy? Anarchy? No, the Detroit defense is not good. Let that notion go. The Packers had a bad offensive game.
($7,300)Mike Evans –@ PHI Over/Under: 45 Team Total: 19.75 Spread: 5.5
Why can Mike Evans not find the endzone? Where are his rookie patented 100 yards two touchdown games that made us a ton of money last year? Was Josh McCown better for Mike Evans fantasy outlook? Famous Jameis is taking the shots, we just need them to land. Why is he dropping the ball? After seeing 13 looks this past week with 19 the week before Evans remains a strong fantasy target. He would have had a huge week 9 and 10 if he caught a touchdown, and this has to be the week. He’s due? Philadelphia allows the third most fantasy points to wide receivers and the spread suggests they will be playing from behind.
Indiana Jones Plays(GPP)
($6,000)Tony Romo @ MIA– Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 23.5 Spread: PK
Tony Romo returns this week 11 and is an instant top 5 play. The Miami Dolphins have been getting shredded week to week in the secondary and Tony Romo will be itching to sling the ball around. He will likely have a high ownership percentage.
($7,700)Dez Bryant @ MIA – Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 23.5 Spread: PK
Lil’ Romeo is back and with his return, Dez regains week to week consideration. I could see his ownership percentage being high with Romo returning, but I’m hoping most people won’t want to pay his high price tag for a perceived non-sure thing. Dez makes a tremendous GPP play.
($5,000)Stefon Diggs vs GB – Over/Under: 45 Team Total: 22.5 Spread: PK
Diggs will be in consideration every week until his price tag raises above 7k on FanDuel and 6K on DraftKings. He is still the number one target in the passing game and will be extremely low owned this week, coming off of a down week, making him an excellent tournament play.
($6,200)Lamar Miller vs DAL – Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 23.5 Spread: PK
Dallas surrenders the second most fantasy points to running backs. Lamar Miller is still the lead back and I think the threat of Jay Ajayi will keep most of the populace off of him. Miller is a contest winning GPP play.
($7,000) Brandon Marshall @ HOU – Over/Under: 41 Team Total: 22.25 Spread: -2.5
Brandon Marshall has been a fantasy revelation whether you realize it or not. To give an idea of expectations coming into the season, he was drafted in the 5th round in redraft leagues. Marshall is the wide receiver 8 on the season. He is averaging 10.6 targets per game and should be able to produce handily in this match up.
($5,400) Matt Stafford vs OAK– Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 22 Spread: 2
With the Saints on a bye and Baltimore’s opponent, St. Louis, void of any real receiving threat, we move to the team allowing the 3rd most points to quarterbacks, the Oakland Raiders. This play comes in the form of an incredible tournament play of Matt Stafford. No one wants to play this guy due his and the organizations dysfunction leading to low ownership. He is a huge salary saver on both sites and allows one to pay up at running back or wide receiver or possibly squeeze Gronk in.
($7,200)Calvin Johnson vs OAK – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 23 Spread: 2
Calvin Johnson completes my tournament stack of the week with the guy I just discussed. A low ownership stack with high upside is a beautiful thing in large GPPs. Yeah, make faces cringe all you want, but that’s what everyone will be doing when they hover over these two in DFS.
($6,300) Derek Carr @ DET– Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 25 Spread: -2
I love both sides of the ball and think this is the undercover shootout of the week. Two average run stopping units with 2 bottom 5 pass defenses spells shoot out. The 48 point over/under ain’t bad either.
Lines as of 11.17.15