Another great week of football and DFS profit! I hope everyone won a GPP, broke the bank, and quit their jobs.
Tweet me. Tell me my picks sucked, or they helped you sleep well after the Langfordian Monday night hammer game. @3rdowndotcom
Vanilla Chalk(Obvious/Cash Game Play)
($7,300) Todd Gurley vs CHI – Over/Under: 42.5 Team Total: 25 Spread: -7.5
Coming off a down week by his standards, Gurley still had 18.4 FanDuel points and finished as the running back 11 on the week. He still had 24 carries and 5 targets, so the work is there, he just didn’t happen to bust one of his newly patented big runs. He remains a cash game target with a safe floor and elevated ceiling this week due to a 7.5 spread favoring the Rams. Chicago’s defensive statistics are decent on the season, but they recently surrendered 103 yards to Adrian Peterson, and Gurley is of a similar ilk.
($6,500)DeAngelo Williams vs CLE – Over/Under: 41 Team Total: 22.75 Spread: -4.5
We saw him dance to 2 touchdowns commanding a large share of the offensive production with 37.7% of the Steelers output at 225 yards. His offensive touches may even increase due to Big Ben Roethlisberger being expected to miss 1-2 weeks with a foot injury. Cleveland allows the second most fantasy points to running backs in the league.
Note: DeAngelo Williams did not practice Tuesday due to a swollen foot. Make sure to check his status later in the week.
($6,300)Greg Olsen @ TEN – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 23.75 Spread: -4.5
Week to week Olsen is my favorite tight end to target across the spectrum. Locked into a 30% target share and has a higher floor than Rob Gronkowski at a fraction of the price. Cam Newton is on fire and you can bet Olsen will benefit weekly being the number one target on the team.
($6,700)Allen Robinson @ BAL– Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 21.25 Spread: 5.5
Allen Robinson is a fantasy beast, sitting at wide receiver 9 on the season on only 8 games. He manufactured yards handily vs Darrelle Revis coverage with 121 yards on 6 catches. He did visit an island this week and it was all MaiTais and leis. Allen Hurns has a sprained left foot and may not play, boosting Robinsons target floor. I love him this week regardless. The Ravens give up the second most fantasy points to the position.
($7,400)Drew Brees @ WAS – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 25.75 Spread: -1
We have seen Brees explode over the past 2 weeks and it will continue this week vs the woeful Redskin secondary. He is a great cash game and tournament play. He has averaged 27.1 fantasy points per game, the second best mark in the league.
($4,900)Darren McFadden @ TB – Over/Under: 43.5 Team Total: 21 Spread: 1.5
Run DMC is not tricky. Play him. With this workload in this matchup he is a no brainer. Last week McFadden had 28 touches and 26 the week before. He is locked and loaded as the workhorse back for the Cowboys and has two 100 yard games in a row in that role vs the Seahawks and Philadelphia, two top 5 run defenses in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
($5,600)Doug Martin vs DAL – Over/Under: 43.5 Team Total: 22.5 Spread: -1.5
If there ever was a week to play Martin this is it. A volume role in a home game in a great match up where they are favored. BYAWWWW! He is averaging 20.25 touches per game and averaging 4.5 yards per carry and the spread suggests he will exceed those opportunities. Dallas allows the seventh most fantasy points to running backs.
Indiana Jones Plays(GPP only)
($5,600)Blake Bortles @ BAL – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 21.25 Spread: 5.5
The Baltimore Ravens allow the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks and Blake Bortles has been balling. He is the eighth highest scoring quarterback in the league on the season and is rounding into true form averaging 24.4 fantasy points per game. Bortles is part of my tournament stack of the week in conjunction with Allen Robinson. The spread suggests they will play from behind leading to voluminous pass attempts.
($4,900)Willie Snead vs WAS – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 25.75 Spread: -1
Washington has been getting ripped defensively in all phases recently, and the season long numbers have yet to reflect this weakness. Snead’s price has stayed steady through his emergence making him an incredible value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings as Drew Brees number one option in a great match up.
($6,200)DeMarco Murray vs MIA – Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: -6.5
Murray had 24 touches last week, 20 before the bye, and 24 the week before that. He is finally developing the role we all envisioned for him when he arrived in Philly. Miami was recently gashed by LeSean McCoy on just 16 attempts for 112 yards at a seven yard per carry rate.
Miami is not the stout defensive unit up front we shaped them up to be in the offseason, surrendering the ninth most fantasy points to running backs. The talent and match ups have been there, finally the role is. He is still a tournament play only.
($5,400)DeSean Jackson vs NO – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 24.75 Spread: 1
DJax has tournament winning upside and DFSers may be hesitant to put him in their lineups after a slow three catch fifteen yard return. He makes a great GPP play, but is not safe for cash games ever due to the low percentage routes he often runs. New Orleans allows the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers . His upside at 6k is alarming.
($4,600)Jordan Reed vs NO – Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 24.75 Spread: 1
It’s no secret by now Jordan Reed is Kirk Cousins favorite target averaging 9 looks per game. The Saints allows the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends in the league. Reed is one of those players that is almost always off the populaces radar and low owned as I expect him to be this week.