Vanilla Chalk(Obvious)
($6,600) Philip Rivers @ BAL– Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: 3
Mr. 500 returned with another excellent return last week with 26.4 FanDuel points. Baltimore will be a DFS target for the rest of the season(as I have previously stated). Look for Philip Rivers to continue to rock and roll this week with a strong performance vs the team allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 6th most pass yards at 286.2 per game. Rivers is the QB1 on the year currently, although he has played one more game than Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Andy Dalton. The spread suggests Rivers will be playing from behind, leading to a ton of passes. It also helps that the run game has been unproductive this season so far. Rivers of fantasy points will fill up your lineup if it include Philip Rivers.
($6,300) Todd Gurley vs SF– Over/Under: 39.5 Team Total: 24 Spread: -8.5
I don’t know how you don’t have 50% or greater shares Gurley across all lineups in almost all matchups at this point. Jeff Fisher has shown his love for riding talented quality backs. Gurely has three 100 yards rushing games in a row and finished as the RB9, RB9, and RB2. He has seen 68 carries in that span and began to get some action in the receiving game, hauling in 4 of 5 targets. The gargantuan spread favoring the Rams bodes well for Gurley’s carry volume. He should see 25-30 touches. His ceiling and floor are rising like the polar ice caps.
Sidenote: Have the 49ers really come to this? Eight and a half points dogs against St. Louis, that hurts more than Chinese finger torture.
($8,000) Devonta Freeman vs TB – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 27.75 Spread: -7
Freeman had a down week by his standards and finished with 14 fantasy points as the RB17. He still had an enormous workload with 25 touches and 3 targets with his lack of a touchdown the only thing slowing his fantasy war path on the DFS world. I see no reason to not continue riding him this week in a majority of lineups, as his workload is insane and comparable with only Le’Veon Bell and Matt Forte. The spread spells positive rushing game script. Tampa Bay is a middling rushing match up, but we have seen Freeman discombobulate seemingly tough opponents like Dallas and Washington.
($3,700)Seattle Seahawks Defense @ DAL– Over/Under: 41 Team Total: 23.5 Spread: -6
I assume Matt Cassel will draw the start again and he tossed 3 interceptions to the Giants. This is a regular thing with him, and he is facing a top 3 defense that applies pressure on the passer. Don’t think. Pay up and use Seattle defense in every lineup this week.
Confident Calls
($5,300)Tyler Eifert @ PIT – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 25 Spread: -1.5
Tyler Eifert is the tight end 3 on the season and is tied for the lead in touchdowns at the position with Mr. Rob Gronkowski. He faces the team allowing the 3rd most fantasy points in the league. Rob Gronkowski murdered Pittsburgh, with 3 touchdowns on 94 yards 5 receptions. I expect Eifert to channel his inner Gronkowski and have a few Gronk spikes of his own.
($9,200)Julio Jones vs TB – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 27.75 Spread: -7
Julio turned in a decent week 7 with 19.7 pts vs Tennessee finishing as the wide receiver 8 on the week. This matchup is far better with the Bucs surrendering the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Julio is averaging 12.7 targets per game and has 89, second most to only DeAndre Hopkins. This is the second highest team total of the week.
($7,700) Keenan Allen @ BAL– Over/Under: 50.5 Team Total: 26.75 Spread: 3
Keenan Allen set the record for receptions through the first seven weeks of the season with 62. This guy is on fire and Rivers and him are instep mentally and the match up is through the roof. Baltimore has allowed the second most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. He has the third most targets of all receivers at 84. He is a lock to go off this week. Targets, talent, match up, the trifecta! Slot him in and hit the jackpot. It helps Antonio Gates may not play due to his MCL injury being more serious than previously believed. He has still not had an MRI. The spread indicates a pass heavy approach for the Chargers which is positive for Allen’s fantasy outlook.
($7,900) Calvin Johnson @KC– Over/Under: 45.5 Team Total: 20.25 Spread: 5
Calvintron is back! After watching the wide receiving high-flying phenom linger in the mid range purgatory of fantasy production at his position finishing as the WR55, WR17, WR38, WR53, and WR35 in weeks one to five, we have seen the return of the deep ball to the Detroit offense producing WR3 and a WR10 finish the last 2 weeks.The reemergence of this brilliant philosophy bodes well vs. the Chiefs Passing defense that surrenders the most fantasy points in the league to wide receivers. The spread boosts the probability of positive passing game script for Calvin.
Indiana Jones Plays(GPP)
($6,600) Eli Manning @ NO– Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 23.25 Spread: 3
No one will be on Eli this week after getting burned with a 4 point fantasy outing, which makes him an excellent tournament play. The Saints allow the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 9th most pass yards per game at 271.5 per contest. Look for Manning to bounce back with a large 400 yard two touch down outing. At $7,300 on FanDuel I will have Eli in almost all my lineups this week.
($8,500) Odell Beckham @ NO– Over/Under: 49.5 Team Total: 23.25 Spread: 3
OBJ has not produced as he should recently and is the wide receiver 8 through 7 games averaging 14 fantasy points per game. He is tied for eighth in targets with 3 other players. That’s odd. He has been hampered by his recurring hamstring strain and hopefully is healthy this week. The injury concern makes him a GPP only play.
($4,800) Stefon Diggs @ CHI– Over/Under: 42.5 Team Total: 21.75 Spread: -1
You don’t have to dig deep on this pick, you can find Stefon on the fantasy week 7 wide receiver leader board finishing as the wide receiver six with 108 yards and a touchdown. He has received 10, 9, and 9 targets in the past 3 games in chronological order and had two 100 yard games in a row before one of the juicier match ups of the season. Chicago allows the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers. Boom!
($4,700) Charcandrick West vs DET– Over/Under: 45.5 Team Total: 25.25 Spread: -5
West had his coming out party vs the Steelers with 110 yards on 22 carries , catching 2 of 5 targets for 129 total yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. This was vs the 4th worse rushing match up in the league and Charcandrick still produced. He now faces the 7th best rushing match up, the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs are committed to West as a feature back. Look for him to flash in this game for a big week. Cheap play on DK
($4,600) Chris Johnson @ CLE– Over/Under: 46 Team Total: 20.5 Spread: 5
Chris Johnson has looked incredibly fresh and electric this season. He is only 30 years old and his workload is a concern, but he was getting double-digit carries vs. softer defenses of Chicago and San Francisco. Chris Johnson had 122 yards touchdown on 18 carries vs. the talented Ravens rush defense. His opponent skill turns upside down, facing the Cleveland league worst run stopping unit allowing 149.8 yards on the ground per game after facing the 8th best Ravens unit at 94.5 yards per game this week. That disparity is alarming, and if he sees 18-20 carries I can see him vastly improving on the prior weeks output. Cleveland allows the 3rd most fantasy points in the league to half backs. I can’t believe his price is this low on DraftKings, fire him up in most of your lineups for the high production salary saver.
Featured Image Credit: By Jeffrey Beall (Own work) [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
