Week 6 was a decent week for me. In terms of straight cash I eaked out a small profit, but made hay with some FanDuel $5M tickets for next week. Every week the tea leaves are easier to read and statistics are more and more applicable. We should be turning a profit the rest of the way over here because we are done guessing — we know the player roles and defenses now.
This is a good week to play cash games Thursday with no players from the Thursday contest because there is no reason to be starting any of these players besides a defense I will mention later.
If you don’t play DFS, this can be thought of as recommended ‘start’ plays because these are guys I obviously love this week and will produce in any format.
[Enter DraftKings $1.25M NFL Play-Action for a shot to win the $100,000 top prize. This contest is FREE with your first deposit!]
Vanilla Chalk (Obvious)
($5,000)Todd Gurley vs CLE – Over/Under: 42 Team Total: 23.75 Spread: -5.5
All the Gurley this week like you’re painting your nails and getting a makeover. The St. Louis monster has 320 yards in his last 2 games vs decent run stopping units of Arizona and Green Bay. He now is on the precipice of an unholy heaven high ceiling that has no bounds vs the league worse run stopping unit of Cleveland surrendering 149.8 yards per game. He has 51 touches over the past 2 games and has the role of an RB1. St. Louis is actually favored in this game by 4.5 and figures to play from ahead, leading to voluminous carries for Gurley. This call is like stopping a Colts fake punt, play him.
If you don’t write something about the punt play in your articles this week you’re doing it wrong.
($8,600)DeAndre Hopkins vs MIA – Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 20 Spread: 4.5
Hopkins is a top 5 wide receiver option weekly going forward and has seen an otherworldly 89 targets in 6 games. That’s 14.8 per a contest. He has 14 more targets than any other pass catcher in the league. Miami is allowing the 9th most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. The spread suggests they will be playing from behind leading to many passes thrown. BOOM!
($6,700)Carson Palmer vs BAL – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 28 Spread: -7.5
The Ravens are an every week target in the passing game. Carson Palmer has been surgical this season and has an extremely favorable match up The high 28 team total spells fantasy points. You don’t wanna miss this. This is the Monday night hammer to boot.
($7,400)Larry Fitzgerald vs BAL – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 28 Spread: -7.5
John Brown had a huge 23.6 points outing last week vs Pittsburgh, but Fitzgerald still had an acceptable 13.3 point outing. Fitzgerald’s floor and ceiling are so high with Carson Palmer under center and they elevate exponentially vs the swiss cheese Baltimore secondary allowing the 6th most passing yards per game at a 286.2 mark.
Confident Calls
($6,500)T.Y. Hilton vs NO – Over/Under: 52 Team Total: 28.5 Spread: -5
He’s finally healthy along with Andrew Luck, Hilton can get back to producing like a WR1. At $7,700 on FanDuel, there is immense upside and I think he will go under owned this week. The Saints allow the 9th most yards thru the air in the league at 271.5 per game. He has 9+ targets in his last 3 games.
($7,500)Arian Foster @ MIA – Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 20 Spread: 4.5
Arian Foster has regained his every down role and joins Le’Veon Bell and Matt Forte(sans Jamaal Charles) as the highest floor plays at the running back position on a weekly basis. The Miami defense has under performed all season and there is no reason to believe a change, albeit the Dolphin offense did look better under new coach Dan Campbell.
($7,900)Devonta Freeman @ TEN – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 26 Spread: -4
Just play him. You gain no advantage not having the number one fantasy back through 6 weeks. He has been a top 10 play at the position 5/6 weeks and finished in weeks 3-6 as the RB1, RB1, RB2, and RB1. Slot him in every lineup, sit back relax, and watch the fantasy points pour in.
As I tweeted last Thursday for those of you multisport DFSers “Fading Devonta Freeman right now is like fading Russell Westbrook last season when Kevin Durant was out.” You are going to take a loss more often than a gain with Freeman out of your lineups.
($6,500)Philip Rivers vs OAK – Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 25.5 Spread: -4
Mr 500 yards returns to this column a week after a contest winning score of 28.12 FanDuel points. Rivers has an excellent match up this week vs the Raiders, who’ve surrendered the second most yards per game through the air at 299.2.
($5,000)Antonio Gates vs OAK – Over/Under: 47.5 Team Total: 25.5 Spread: -4
There is no merit to fading Gates in this match up although I could see his ownership levels near 30%-40% with the Raiders atrocious tight end defense being no secret. This is the chalkiest play of the week.
($2,400)St. Louis Rams Defense vs CLE – Over/Under: 42 Team Total: 23.75 Spread: -5.5
The Ram’s are generating sacks like no ones business and Josh McCown is turnover prone under pressure.
($3,800)Seattle Seahawks vs 49ers – Over/Under: 42 Team Total: 24 Spread: -6
This is a chalk play that will be very high owned in Thursday start contests due to the masses wanting action in the game, but it is a good play due to Colin Kaeperknick’s issues this season tossing 5 interceptions in 6 contests.
Indiana Jones Plays(GPP)
($6,700$)Lamar Miller vs HOU – Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 24.5 Spread: -4.5
The coaching change instantly effected Lamar Miller with him recording his best game of the season vs Tennessee with 21 touches for 118 all purpose yards and a touch down. Now Miller faces Houston, who allows the 7th most fantasy points to running backs. The spread suggests Miami will have a lead, meaning a positive game script for voluminous rushes.
($5,300)Brian Hoyer @ MIA – Over/Under: 44.5 Team Total: 20 Spread: -4.5
There is a certain point that you cannot deny a players production any longer. Having scored 16.3, 20.9, and 23.2 FanDuel points in the last 3 games, Hoyer has secured the starting quarterback job. At 6,800 he only needs around 14 points to hit value which I feel confident he can do .
Full disclosure: I am considering him for cash games, but I wouldn’t recommend him there because there is always bust possibility with Hoyer and the quarterback flip-flopping with Ryan Mallet.
($6,500)Dion Lewis vs NYJ – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 28.75 Spread: -9
Last week was a LeGarrette Blount week. This week is a Dion Lewis Week. I know what you’re thinking. Here we go again with risky Patriots running back predictions, but Dion Lewis is in a different role than Shane Vereen was. Tom Brady will be dumping the ball off all day long to Lewis to avoid the stout Jets front. Lewis is still a GPP play due to some risk, but I feel good about his chances of producing this week and returning to his RB2 floor RB1 ceiling.
($4,500)Julius Thomas vs BUF – Over/Under: 42 Team Total: 18.25 Spread: 5.5
The 2013 and 2014 touchdown machine, putting up 24 in that span, finally got into the end zone this season vs Houston. He is all the way back healthy from his hand injury and will be used heavily in the red zone. He has a huge 5 year 46 million contract. They didn’t pay him to block and will be a high upside, low floor play this week. Buffalo has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to the tight end position. The spread suggests plenty of play from behind passing action for the Jaguars offense .
($5,200)Donte Moncrief vs NO – Over/Under: 52 Team Total: 28.5 Spread: -5
It is rare I will recommend 2 wide receivers on the same team one week, but at $6,500 on FanDuel, Moncrief is a steal. Also, if the 28.5 team total is legitimate there should be enough fantasy points to go around. He has 49 targets in 6 contests and should be able to play a large part in Andrew Luck‘s looming biggest fantasy week of the season.
($5,000)Zach Mettenberger vs ATL Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 22 Spread: 4
Marcus Mariota has is not expected to play after suffering a grade 2 MCL sprain in week 6 vs Miami. Zach Mettenberger is turnover prone, but should be able to reach value at his sub $6K price tag. Zach Mettenberger has thrown an interception in each of his last 7 starts, but thankfully for fantasy purposes, that doesn’t hurt us much because Mettenberger has shown the continuous effort to get the ball downfield regardless of turnovers(a la Jay Cutler). GPP only recommendation, but I am considering him for cash games. The spread suggests they will be playing from behind leading to more pass plays.
($2,600)Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense @WAS – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 19.75 Spread: 3.5
It is rare a bare minimum priced defense is a recommended play but here we are. Kirk Cousins is turnover prone and we saw the Buccaneers boom for 15 points vs Blake Bortles and Jacksonville week 5. You can really squeeze a lot out of your lineups when you have an upside play so low-priced.
Lines as Of 10.20.15
Photo Credit: Photo Credit: Michael Wifall/Flickr
